After leaving New York, it seemed like Francisco Cervelli would make the most of his chance to play. Over the last three years, he’s slashed .256/.365/.373 with 113 runs, 18 home runs, 121 RBI and eight stolen bases in 289 games. Although these numbers do not jump off the page, he’s been limited by injuries and a home ballpark which can depress power. Underneath the statistics, Cervelli owns strong discipline metrics with a swinging strike percentage of 8.6 and he makes contact over 78 percent of the time.

In 2018, things changed a bit in Cervelli’s batted ball data. He set career highs in home runs (12), RBI (57), on-base plus slugging percentage (.809) and extra-base hits (30). His on-base percentage of 37.6-percent led all major league catchers. Cervelli played in 104 games with 39 runs and a .259/.378/.431 slash to go along with the counting statistics listed above. He also increased his isolated power to .172, the highest of his career, as a result of cutting down on his ground ball rate by over 13 points compared to 2017.

Cervelli also generated his highest fly ball percentage (41.7-percent) since 2013 with a 33.9-percent hard hit rate. According to Statcast, Cervelli’s average launch angle of 15.7 more than doubled his 5.9-degree angle in 2016 and a 6.1 average launch angle in 2017. It will be difficult to discern if he can carry over the fly ball lean from last year, but it’s good to see Cervelli can handle the elevated fastball revolution as evidenced in his zone profiles:

When trying to formulate a projection for Cervelli, his expected numbers and injuries from last year need to be factored. Using the data on xSTATS, Cervelli’s expected average from the last three years sits at .255 and his expected slash from last year of .258/.377/.447 reinforces his surge. Plus, Cervelli’s expected home run total from 2018 of 14.2 suggests he could improve.

But, he did miss time due to concussions two times last season. Cervelli landed on the disabled list on June 22nd and returned on July eighth only to head back with lingering symptoms on July 14th. He did play out the rest of the season after being reinstated on July 26th, but as a catcher, it needs to be weighed when targeting him in drafts. Due to the concussion, Cervelli could be a more reliable second catcher in fantasy rather than a starter, but the depth at the position still makes him a worthy target.

Here’s a look at his projections from three sites and they actually set a nice baseline on how his season could go based on games played. Steamer provides the lowest standard with THE BAT representing the best-case scenario:

With Elias Diaz to provide Pittsburgh with a solid catching combination, Cervelli should stay fresh and produce in 2019. If Cervelli can accrue 375 or more at-bats, he could set new career highs in his power categories due to his discipline and improved launch angle. With a solid floor and a chance for a repeat, Francisco Cervelli represents a worth target at catcher.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

MLB.com