It felt like Felipe Vázquez broke out in 2017 after he recorded a 1.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. However, his ground ball percentage declined by 10 percent but his BABIP yielded rose to .331 in 2018 which fueled the rise in his ERA to 2.70 with a 3.06 xFIP. Vazquez still finished with a 14.7 swinging strike percentage and 71.8 contact rate, so his peripheral statistics did not suffer.
While many will focus on his final results, Vazquez turned his season around in June. Over his last 46 games, Vazquez converted 27 of his 28 save chances with a 1.70 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. Within this time frame, he recorded 16 consecutive scoreless outings between June 15th through July 21st. Also, Vazquez saved 24 straight contests between June sixth and September 16th.
In comparison to his peers, Vazquez ranked second among left-handed relievers with 89 strikeouts behind only Josh Hader . He also finished the second most games in the majors (60) to Wade Davis (63). With 37 saves, Vazquez accrued the third most saves in the National League and the sixth most in the majors.
When trying to predict his range of outcomes for 2019, it will be important to see how he uses his pitches. Part of his strong finish accompanied an increased usage of his slider. Here’s his strikeout percentage by pitch by season:
Note, he’s shelved his sinker and added a curve in 2017. But, the trajectory of his slider will be important to focus on. Again, with the premise his velocities to start last season slipped, here’s a look at them by month by pitch:
Noting his strong finish commenced in June, his velocity gains from this point forward fueled it. Here’s a look at his pitches, courtesy of Statcast:
Vazquez can work up in the strike zone with his four-seam while moving his secondary pitches in and out of the zone to generate strikeouts. Plus, there’s a possibility for positive migration to the mean in regards to 2019. When looking at his outcomes last year compared to the expected ones, Vazquez deserved a better fate last season.
Not to belabor the point, the 46 game finish by Vazquez featured a 1.70 ERA with 27.1 strikeouts minus walk percentage, 1.09 WHIP and 2.65 xFIP. His ground ball rate did increase to just under 47 percent as well. He did benefit from a generous 90 percent strand rate, but it’s accounted for in the expected FIP.
Looking at the projections for Felipe Vázquez , they seem split based on his full season and career numbers, which makes sense:
These provide a solid baseline of value for a closer going in the second tier in most drafts. Vazquez could finish with an ERA within the 2.61 range by ATC and the 3.16 ERA forecast by THE BAT. But, if he ramps up the slider usage which could make his four-seam more effective, then a return closer to his 2017 levels could ensue:
Playing in a tough division with an offense which will need to manufacture runs could translate to save opportunities for Felipe Vázquez . With further refinement of his arsenal and positive migration to the mean, a 2.60 ERA and WHIP closer to one than 1.20 will make him a worthy target in 2019. In fact, Vazquez could finish as a top-five closer if everything breaks right for him.
For fantasy owners not willing to pay for a closer in the first seven rounds, waiting on Vazquez makes perfect sense. A strong baseline with room for upside makes him a worthy target in a sea of volatility.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
MLB.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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