After back-to-back seasons of 25 home runs in 2016 and 2017, there was some optimism for Eric Hosmer as left the Royals for a big contract with the San Diego Padres. The two years prior with 25 home runs and ISOs above .165 sparked confidence heading to a pitcher friendly park. However, his first season in San Diego was underwhelming, as he hit just 18 long balls with 69 RBI across 157 games. The ground balls came back with a vengeance, as his GB/FB ratio of 3.06 was far and away the highest mark of his career. He hit a ground ball 60.4 percent of the time last year, and a fly ball rate just below 20 percent. While there is room for optimism, rostering Hosmer as your everyday first baseman is fantasy turns out to be rather ho-hum, lacking excitement and an overall “meh” feeling, as the kids say.

More swings and misses in 2018 led to an increased strikeout rate, as his 21-percent K-rate was the highest of his career. The whiffs jumped, and when you’re not making contact as often, it’s completely understandable.

That high of a strikeout rate with a low power floor for the position is why Hosmer if often drafted outside of the top players at his position. Hosmer is reliable and durable, hitting at least 18 home runs and playing in 157 games in each of the past four seasons, but he’s never the sexy selection. However, you don’t need sexy to win fantasy leagues, as steadiness is an equally important trait and that my friends, is what Hosmer provides.

Especially from the first base position, where the stereotype is a big, bulky power hitter, a 21-percent strikeout rate is fine, assuming that you have 25-30 home runs and 85+ RBI to boot. Hosmer has done that just twice since he entered the bigs back in 2011, but don’t worry there is a path back to 25 home runs for Hosmer in 2019.

For Hosmer to get back to 25, or just 20+ home runs, a few things need to happen. Of course, you cannot hit home runs on ground balls, and Hosmer can run a bit, but he isn’t that fast. Hosmer will need to loft the baseball and last year’s career low 19.7-percent simply isn’t going to cut it. His career average is 25.7 percent, but that is aided by some lofty years, for him, back in the early stages of his career. Could Hosmer get back into the mid-to-high 20s in fly ball rate? Perhaps, but somewhere in the 22-23 range seems more appropriate in 2019. From the charts below, you will see that Hosmer makes above-average hard contact, but his launch angle is so far below league average that it affects that home run total.

It’s easier said than done, but if Hosmer can improve upon the launch angle, back to what it was a few years ago, 25 home runs is not out of the realm of possibility in 2019. If the fly ball rate increases and his HR/FB ratio gets back to about 22-percent, the door to a home run total in the mid-20s is a possibility.

If Hosmer gets 600 at-bats again this season, which would be the fourth year in a row, and his strikeout rate is in between the prior two seasons, he comes in at 123 strikeouts. That would put him at 477 non-strikeout at-bats. A 20-percent fly ball rate gives him 95 fly balls for the year, and an increase back up to 20-percent for his HR/FB ratio gives him 19 home runs for the year. However, a HR/FB ratio of 22-percent, which is where it was in 2016 and 2017, would give him 21 home runs, and you can continue to do the math from there.  Here’s one last calculation for you. If Hosmer gets 600 at-bats, 123 strikeouts, a fly ball rate of 25-percent and a HR/FB ratio of 20-percent, we end with a total of 23.8 home runs, which rounds up to 24, which is practically 25. Sprinkle in some luck on a few other balls and voila!

However, Hosmer could repeat last year’s numbers and turn in another ho-hum season with a sub-20 home run total. The power is hit or miss in 2019, but I do believe that Hosmer cuts down that strikeout rate and puts forth a batting average closer to .285-.290 this season. Hosmer lacks the upside typically desired for a first baseman, but outside of the top two or even three tiers, Hosmer provides durability and reliability for fantasy owners. His upside is less than others, but if everything hits, and with an improved supporting cast in San Diego, Hosmer could swat 25 balls out of the stadium with 85-90 RBIs.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb