When trying to evaluate Elvis Andrus for 2019, it will boil down to assessing his breakout season from 2017 versus his injury shortened 2018 and how he will produce going forward. With the retirement of Adrián Béltre , Andrus seems to be penciled in to hit third for the Rangers to open the season. This alone could benefit the counting statistics from Andrus and if he migrates towards his career rates, suddenly the Texas shortstop could be a bargain.
Almost every year, rebound seasons occur by veteran players and Andrus fits the mold. Due to an olecranon fracture in his right elbow last year, he only appeared in 97 games with 53 runs, six home runs, 33 RBI, five stolen bases and a .256/.308/.367 slash line. Recency bias does not account for Andrus’ nine straight seasons prior to last year of at least 145 games played and 20 or more stolen bases in each of them. With steals at the forefront of scarcity articles, even if hitting third, Andrus could still produce 15 or more stolen bases in the year ahead.
Over the last three years, Andrus accrued 1,556 at-bats with 230 runs, 34 home runs, 192 RBI, 56 stolen bases and a .289/.338/.434 line. He makes contact almost 83 percent of his plate appearances with a .146 isolated power, 21.2 line drive percentage and a 30.3 hard hit rate. At a position which less power will be tolerated, Andrus probably will not achieve another 20 home run season, but he’s been trending up in terms of fly balls generated along with pulling the ball more:
According to Statcast, Andrus registered 331 batted ball events with 14 barrels, an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity and a launch angle of 8.8 degrees. Andrus kept his barrel percentage in direct correlation with his 2017 season surge and slightly increased his launch angle. With health and a full season hitting in the top third of the Rangers lineup, he sets up as a value veteran to target.
Using expected statistics (xSTATS), Andrus owns a .278 expected average with 30.6 expected home runs during the last three years. So, his power indicators do not fall off the shelf and the average sets a nice baseline for his projections. Personally not going to forecast an average near his .302 mark in 2016 or .297 in 2017, but they did occur. Here’s the projections from three sites for Andrus:
One cannot completely ignore the results logged by Elvis Andrus last year, but they can be taken with a grain of salt returning from a broken elbow. Every year fantasy owners allow veterans coming off of a down year to be rostered at a discount and Andrus will be one of them this year. Currently being drafted as the 20th shortstop at pick number 184 on average in 12-team drafts in March according to NFBC data.
Elvis Andrus could hit third, steal 20 bases and if he hits at or above his .278 expected average from the last three years, he’s well worth the reach as a starting shortstop or a middle infielder with upside.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
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