With saves becoming more scarce as the closer position continues to evolve, Edwin Díaz will not only follow-up his career year by staying in the ninth inning, but he will head to New York to pitch for the Mets. Diaz racked up 57 saves with the Mariners in 2018 with 124 strikeouts against 17 walks with a 1.96 ERA, 1.61 FIP and minuscule 0.79 WHIP. Only Josh Hader recorded more strikeouts as a reliever. Diaz also became the youngest pitcher with at least 50 saves and tied for the second highest total since saves emerged as a statistical category.

Not only did Diaz turn in one of the best seasons by a reliever in history, but he notched 27 one-run saves of 30 chances, he whiffed 124 of the 280 total batters faced for an eye popping 44.3 strikeout percentage and Seattle went 61 - 0 when Diaz received a save opportunity. They won all four of his blown saves. Plus, the Mariners won all 66 games in which Diaz pitched with a lead. He converted 28 straight saves between June second through August 15th and he won the American League Reliever of the month four times.

While many pitchers use a new wrinkle to fuel a breakout, Diaz benefited from his rocky 2017 numbers migrating back towards his stellar debut in 2016. When comparing last season results to the year prior, Diaz increased his strikeout percentage by over twelve, cut his walk rate by five percent, generated over five percent more ground balls and reduced his hard hit percentage by over three percent.

Diaz relies on a four-seam fastball and devastating slider as his arsenal. In an effort to look at his numbers so far, here’s a chart using the data on Brooks Baseball on how much he throw each pitch and its effectiveness:

Although the slider did not reach his 2016 whiff rate, it still increased compared to 2017 and proved much more effective in batting average against. With more pitchers trying to change eye level to improve their arsenal, Diaz accomplishes this by throwing his fastball up in the zone and mixing in the slider in the dirt to finish off hitters. Statcast’s 3-D imaging tries to illustrate this from the catcher’s viewpoint:

Not only can Diaz elevate his fastball, it also can be thrown down in the zone to keep hitters off balance. Tracking back to Brooks Baseball, his zone profile with whiffs per swings in each part of the strike zone, and outside of it show how Diaz racks up swinging strikes in the far bottom right:

This includes all three years of his career and his 109 saves in only 188 games. Comparing last year’s career bests to his expected statistics on xSTATS only reinforces how great Diaz performed. According to xSTATS, Diaz recorded a 1.06 bbFIP and 1.46 kwFIP with an expected on-base average of .218 in 2018. All of this adds up to paying the career year tax in fantasy if wishing to roster Diaz in upcoming drafts.

According to early NFBC data, Diaz will be the first closer off the board on average at pick number 48 with a range of 35 as the high selection so far and his lowest at number 64 overall. Moving to the Mets may enhance his fantasy status anchoring a strong rotation aided by veteran Jeurys Familia as the set-up reliever.

With only his Steamer projection as a teaser, it forecasts Diaz to win four games, lose two, save 33 games over 65 innings with a 97:22 K:BB, 2.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Due to the growing scarcity of saves, his dominant season and high profile trade, it’s going to be costly to roster him. With two of his three years reaching at least a 40 percent strikeout percentage, this category seems the easiest to bank on.

Using his FIP and bbFIP as predictors for 2019, Diaz can outperform his projected ERA and WHIP as long as he continues to depress walks. There’s going to be a price to pay for top tier closers due to the volatility of the position. If looking to avoid chasing saves on the wire or in a draft and hold format, Diaz can be worth the investment. Armed with a high octane fastball and punchout slider, it makes sense. Just go in with eyes wide open. With so many variables in drafts along with the struggles of the top closers to return value, it’s easy to love Diaz as a fantasy commodity, it’s just going to be tough to justify paying full retail as a result.

Love the talent, not the price point.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com