While Yankees fans hoped for the team to make a splash in free agency, Brian Cashman continues to build a deep, fluid roster while not splurging in an effort to stay below the luxury tax. DJ LeMahieu agreed to a two-year deal with New York, which could resuscitate his fantasy value in 2019. He will arrive to his new team after recording career highs in home runs (15), fly ball rate and just short in regards to hard hit percentage.

Over the last three years, only José Altuve , Daniel Murphy , Charlie Blackmon and J.D. Martínez hit for a higher average than LeMahieu’s .312 which ranks tied for fifth with some guy named Mike Trout . Given the benefits of hitting in Coors Field for half of his games, LeMahieu led the National League in batting average in 2016 but can he be relied on when away from Colorado?

Before delving into his home and road splits, keep in mind Coors protects BABIP on fly balls due to the thin air and spacious outfield. LeMahieu owns a career 53.8% ground ball rate compared to a 22.4% fly ball rate. Here’s his statistical data as a hitter at home, including 37 games as a Cub in 2011:

  • DJ LeMahieu home statistics: 1,762 at-bats, 314 runs, 21 home runs, 201 RBI, 47 stolen bases; .330/.387/.448
  • DJ LeMahieu road statistics: 1,683 at-bats, 187 runs, 28 home runs, 148 RBI, 28 stolen bases; .264/.311/.362

It’s worth noting LeMahieu hit more home runs on the road than at home, plus his .307 BABIP sits above his number from last year. Many view LeMahieu’s 2018 as a disappointment given his .276/.321/.428 slash line, but ignore the 90 runs, 15 home runs, 62 RBI and six stolen bases. Underneath the numbers, LeMahieu became a bit more aggressive giving up some contact while chasing more pitches outside the strike zone. He still finished with a minuscule 5.2% swinging strike rate, which translates to something the Yankees crave: Contact.

LeMahieu may not only repeat his 15 home runs as a Yankee, he could improve upon it. Although LeMahieu only hit three of his home runs to the opposite field last year, check out his heat map from the last three years on line drives and fly balls only, courtesy of Statcast:

With the premise of a short porch down each line in Yankee Stadium, LeMahieu’s swing should translate well to his new home. Additionally, here’s a look at all of his line drives and fly balls the last three years with his new stadium as the backdrop:

Even if he only gets a small percentage of the doubles or field outs to the opposite field over the fence in Yankee Stadium, LeMahieu’s power surge from last year could translate. Using the splits page on Fangraphs, here’s his batted ball data when hitting the ball to each field last year:

While the outlook for LeMahieu bodes well based on his landing spot, where he hits will be a determining factor on his counting statistics. Shifting from batting second with the Rockies, LeMahieu’s early lineup projection in New York finds him ninth. Last year, the cumulative totals for the ninth batters on the Yankees resulted in 566 at-bats, 75 runs, 71 RBI and a .242/.297/.405 slash line.

Prior to his signing, Steamer projected LeMahieu for 583 at-bats, 79 runs, 11 home runs, 57 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .273/.336/.390 slash line based on his career road numbers. Due to injuries and the fluidity of the Yankees lineup last year, LeMahieu may be able to change his fate and hit higher, especially versus left-handed pitching. Fantasy owners will need to adjust for fewer runs, but due to the RBI totals above and a loaded lineup, LeMahieu could reach 15 homers and 63 RBI given he reaches 575 at-bats.

As for figuring out his slash line in 2019, here’s where debates will lie. Heeding his expected statistics (xSTATS), LeMahieu’s average the last three years should be .328 with 28.8 expected home runs. However, he increased his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity last year. If LeMahieu gets more lift at Yankee Stadium, home runs will ensue. Getting batting average protection at his present price point in drafts could provide upside.

Yes, moving away from Coors will affect his average, but playing for the Yankees could boost his home run numbers, especially if his swing continues to produce more fly balls. There’s room for speculation within this profile and landing in a plus-hitter’s park in a deep lineup insulates some of the forecasted regression in batting average. Comparing expected outcomes versus his Steamer projection, taking the under on runs, over on home runs and RBI, steals feel right and he will hit between .277-to-.287 this season. With a chance for an average in the .290’s, which proves to be rare air with an average draft position over 200 through 55 NFBC contests.

Once again, score one for the unsexy veterans.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com