It feels like fluky injuries continue to derail David Dahl , but he flashed his upside in the second half last year, especially over the last month of play. Dahl missed time in 2017 with a stress reaction in his ribs and also in 2018 with a broken foot. He’s only appeared in more than 100 games twice as a professional. However, Dahl homered in six of his last eight regular season contests last year finishing his last 24 games with nine home runs, 27 RBI, a .287/.330/.655 slash line, a robust .368 isolated power and 42.4 fly ball rate.

Generating more fly balls could be beneficial for Dahl given Coors rates as the best park in baseball for BABIP on them. While this provides a reason for Dahl truthers to be excited, overlooking his 39.6 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) or his 15.4 swinging strike rate would be a mistake. Dahl kept his contact percentage above 71 percent last year but will need to be more disciplined to take the step forward fantasy owners crave. Along with staying on the field.

Dahl did appear in 77 games with the Rockies last year with 31 runs, 16 home runs, 48 RBI, five stolen bases and a .273/.325/.534 slash. He’s played in 140 games in the majors during the early stages of his career with 73 runs, 23 home runs, 72 RBI, 10 stolen bases, a .293 average and .859 on-base plus slugging percentage. When comparing this to his xSTATS, Dahl’s numbers take a hit. The “Coors Effect” can be applicable.

When adding together Dahl’s expected hits it results in a .266 expected average and his expected home runs add up to 14.6, almost nine below his actual number over his first 140 games. In an effort to establish his baseline for 2019, switching to Statcast could shed a different light.

According to Statcast, Dahl recorded 183 batted ball events last year with 17 barrels, an average exit velocity of 88.7 MPH and a 13.8-degree launch angle. He improved his launch angle by three percent, more fly balls and line drives, but his first pitch swing percentage of 41 does raise concerns. Here’s a look at Dahl’s expected average and power indicators from last year courtesy of Statcast:

It’s apparent Dahl can get aggressive and if he’s hunting first pitch fastballs, it definitely worked at the end of last season. However, the lack of discipline could lend itself to streakiness. This will need to be factored in when taking Dahl in a head-to-head format versus rotisserie leagues. Not to mention his spotty injury reports. Some of this can be attributed to bad luck, but cannot be ignored.

Transitioning to his projections, there’s still plenty of upside given where Dahl plays half of his games along with his prospect pedagogy:

Given his warts and upside, he’s priced about right heading into 2019, which will be a intriguing year to see if he can make progress in his discipline metrics along with staying on the field. Fantasy owners possess long memories. If Dahl can reach THE BAT’s projection, he’s breaking even due to the low slash line. Dahl owners hope the ATC projection comes to fruition since this would mean profit. Although Dahl can be a polarizing figure in fantasy baseball, health and his outcomes this year will determine if he’s a fringe third round pick next year or a double-digit flier based on health.

 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski