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After making a huge splash in fantasy in 2017, Cody Bellinger felt like a disappointment last year. He appeared in all 162 games with 84 runs, 25 home runs, 76 RBI, 14 stolen bases and a .260/.343/.470 slash line in 557 at-bats. Regression seemed likely to affect Bellinger, but there’s some interesting underlying data to peruse before trying to discern how his 2019 will play out.
In the second half, Bellinger hit .285/.369/.453 over his last 214 at-bats. His improvement in batting average did come with a cost. Bellinger’s isolated power fell to .168 but he improved in both walk percentage (11.1-percent) and strikeout rate (23.8-percent). He also raised his hard hit percentage to 42.7-percent compared to 38.5 in the first half.
Bellinger also improved his discipline metrics cutting his swinging strike percentage to 12.3-percent last year while improving his contact percentage to 72.4-percent. It remains to be seen if Bellinger can replicate his fly ball propensity from his debut season and his home run per fly ball rate.
It’s important to remember Bellinger will not turn 24 until July, so if he consolidated some of his batted balls skills last year, a bounce back towards 2017 could occur. Over the last two years, Bellinger’s accrued 1,073 at-bats with 171 runs, 64 home runs, 173 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .263/.347/.502 slash. Within his first two seasons, he owns a .258 isolated power, produces fly balls 43.3-percent of the time, a 44-percent pull rate and 41.4 hard hit percentage.
According to Statcast, Bellinger generated 409 batted ball events last year with 35 barrels, an average exit velocity of 89.7 MPH and a launch angle of 16.1 degrees. His drop in barrels can be attributed to pitchers attacking him differently along with migration to the mean. But, with a reduced price point in drafts and eligibility at a weakened position, Bellinger could be an intriguing upside play.
Using the data on xSTATS, Bellinger’s expected average the last two years of .266 sits slightly above his actual numbers and his expected home runs of 61.3 almost align. Paying for an average in the .270’s could be a reach, but the number itself could be his best-case scenario for this season. With Bellinger’s launch angle and average exit velocities near mirrors of his breakout in 2017, perhaps a boost in his counting statistics lie in the opposite field?
With this in mind, here’s Bellinger’s isolated power and hard-hit percentages by direction from his first two seasons:
Note he improved on isolated power to left field last year and slightly to center. While the hard-hit rate dropped to his opposite field, it rose hitting the ball up to the middle. Bellinger’s heat map over his first two years also reflects his willingness to try and hit the ball to the center of the field:
There aren’t many home runs to the opposite field, and they may not come this year, but, here’s his spray chart of fly balls and line drives in this time frame with exit velocities:
It seems like Bellinger’s opposite field power could be percolating. Like any good coffee, it will be results which make it possible, but, Bellinger’s zone profiles prove intriguing:
It’s apparent Bellinger can hit a mistake down the middle, but if he can improve his slugging percentage on outside pitches, it may unlock more mistakes to hit in the upcoming season. With his age and ability to adjust in the second half last year, Bellinger should get back to 30 or more home runs this year. Here’s his projections from three different sites:
With first base shallower, stolen bases in demand and power down compared to last year, Bellinger could be a worthy target. He also owns eligibility in the outfield. There’s no guarantee he will reach these projections, but they will be within his reach. In fact, if Bellinger hit 35 home runs with 13 stolen bases and a .269 average, do not be surprised. He sits in the fourth round in many drafts when teams will be taking their second pitcher. If one wishes to go against the grain and secure a player with upside at a shallow position, Bellinger could be your pivot.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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