After all the speculation on what moving to Milwaukee could do to enhance the fantasy upside of Christian Yelich , it all came to fruition. He not only won the National League MVP, but exploded for 36 home runs, 118 runs, 110 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Yelich finished with a career best isolated power, .272, while producing more line drives, fewer ground balls but still did not experience the fly ball spike many hoped for.
Yet, Yelich won the batting title in the National League, the first time a Brewers player ever accomplished the feat. He also became the third player in team history to hit at least 30 home runs with at least 20 stolen bases. How impressive was his season? Here’s a list of all of his accomplishments:
- Yelich led the National League in hitting (.326), slugging percentage (.598), on-base plus slugging percentage (1.000) and in total bases (343).
- He ranked second in runs (118), hits (187), tied for second in RBI (110), third in on-base percentage (.402), tied for third in home runs (36) and fifth in extra-base hits (77).
- Yelich finished as only the fifth player to record two cycles in the same season.
- Over his last 74 games, Yelich hit .367 (109-for-297) with 25 home runs and 75 RBI.
- Missed eight games with an oblique strain between April eighth through the 16th.
While fantasy owners try to discern how much of Yelich’s season can be repeated, he’s moved into the first round in most fantasy drafts. Perhaps his oblique strain prevented a full breakout, but, here’s his batted ball data from 2017, each half of last year and his three year averages to provide a baseline of data:
It’s remarkable how many home runs Yelich produced with a fly ball rate below 25 percent. Hitting in Miller Park definitely enhanced his power profile, he launched 22 of his 36 in home contests. But it was not a result of pulling the ball, Yelich hit 21 home runs last year to center field. In fact, when Yelich pulls the ball, it’s often on the ground.
Yelich hits for his highest launch angles to center and to the opposite field. Although this did not cap his power, if he learns to increase his fly ball rate to his pull side field, the regression in his home run total could be defrayed. This will be something to track during the spring.
Focusing on his three-year totals, it’s apparent Yelich will not sell out to hit for power. His .203 isolated power proves encouraging, but will not support a full repeat of last season. Growth in his hard-hit rate and home run per fly ball percentages do give hope for his total to settle in the high 20’s or low 30’s as Yelich enters his Age-27 season.
Before delving into his projection sets, looking at his expected statistics will help set his floor. According to xSTATS, Yelich’s expected average the last three years of .307 fully supports his actual .304/.384/.508 slash line within this time frame. Through 461 games and 1,765 at-bats, he’s scored 299 runs with 75 home runs, 291 RBI while stealing 47 bases. Slated to hit second again for the Brewers should ensure Yelich will continue to run the bases aggressively. It also helps to keep his runs and RBI chances up.
Here’s three different projections systems and how they predict Yelich’s season will be:
Fantasy owners will be pleased to see at least 96 runs with a range up to 104, RBI between 86-to-96 and slash lines near his three-year averages. How many home runs he hits and steals he accrues will be the final determinants on his value. Using Statcast, Yelich recorded 441 batted ball events last season with a 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on all of his fly balls and line drives. Hitting more would be a boon to his power.
Yelich also finished with 224 95 MPH-plus batted balls resulting in a 50.8 hard hit percentage. In regards to barrels, Yelich ranked eighth in the majors with 57 last year and he placed 15th overall in average exit velocity (92.3 MPH).
Owning a high floor with room for growth in power compared to his projections, Christian Yelich will be a popular target in the first round with a potential to near a repeat of his season from last year. His crazy hot streak over the last 74 games will be tough to replicate, but it exhibits his upside when he’s locked in. Investing in an average at or near .300 along with 28-plus home runs, 100 runs and 85-plus RBI seems within reach. If Yelich steals 20 or more bases, it’s a sweetener.
Not all seasons will be created equally for fantasy and Yelich’s 2018 proved MVP caliber. Banking on minor regression in his power but heeding the projections keeps Yelich as an elite fantasy option. Act accordingly.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com
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