Recency bias can cloud fantasy owners’ vision. Most remember Chris Sale being limited in September with tendinitis and a drop-in velocity. For years, Sale’s been under scrutiny due to his unorthodox delivery portending a physical breakdown. Last year, Sale only accrued 158 innings falling four innings short of being a qualified starting pitcher. He finished with 12 wins last year in 27 starts with 237 strikeouts against 34 walks, a 2.11 ERA, 2.31 xFIP and 0.86 WHIP.
Of pitchers with at least 150 innings last year, he led the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (13.5) and in WHIP. Sale also finished second in opponents average against (.181) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.532). His ERA ranked third within this subset of innings trailing only Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell . In two key analytical categories, Sale finished first in both strikeouts minus walks percentage (32.9 percent) and in xFIP (2.31).
In nearly 1,500 innings over his career, Sale’s won 103 games against 62 losses, a 2.89 ERA and 5.3 strikeout to walk ratio, which ranks best in history. As a starter, he’s averaged 198 innings but if he ebbs towards 160-to-180 innings going forward as Sale will soon turn 30, will he be worth a first round pick in 15-team formats?
Before delving into his Statcast data, Sale did finish last year with a crater in his velocity but bounced back in the playoffs. First, here’s a chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball illustrating his average velocities in each game last year:
The steep drop in September aligns with the news of inflammation in his shoulder. He did incur two disabled list stints but finished the year strong for the World Champion Red Sox. Trying to see if the injury lingered, here’s Sale’s vertical release point on a per game basis as well:
At a time when pitch tunneling seems to be gaining momentum, Sale seemed to vary his delivery last year. But he still finished with a 15.8 swinging strike percentage, the highest of his career. Sale also limited contact to a career low 67.2 percent. Intriguing, right?
According to Statcast, Sale finished with an average exit velocity allowed of 84.8 MPH last year, ninth best in the majors among pitchers with at least 150 batted ball events, and fifth among starting pitchers. While questions linger about how well Sale will do in 2019, check out his landing page on Statcast and note all the great indicators:
Using the Statcast pitch data, Sale’s four-seam recorded a 42-strikeout percentage with a 29.8 whiff percentage. His slider racked up a whopping 52.5 strikeout rate with a 44.4 whiff percentage. Sale’s change only yielded a 10.5 strikeout percentage but generated a 38.3 whiff percentage. For an idea of how his pitches look, his 3-D display from a 12 strikeout start versus the Rangers in July:
And the accompanying chart detailing the velocities and when the pitches were deployed:
As one of the major leagues most dominant starters, Sale can work up and down in the zone along with producing swinging strikes outside the strike zone. Here’s his pitches from last year in plot maps:
Last, here’s the visual of Sale and his whiff percentage within a zone profile courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
There’s no denying Chris Sale ’s one of the top three pitchers in the game. When healthy, and on his game, he could be the most dominant. However, with the questions about his shoulder, Sale’s price could be depressed in drafts this year. It comes down to mitigating risk on a roster. For the risk averse, if Sale gets 200-plus innings, he could be the top ranked pitcher in fantasy. But, if he’s limited to 180 or less, then his price tag may be too rich. Check his projections across four different data systems:
If Sale reaches THE BAT or the Steamer projections, he’s a first round player. If he’s limited to the ATC or ZiPS numbers, then he’s more of a third-round pitcher. It’s all relative. Depending on where he falls in drafts or auctions, Sale could be well worth the risk. In fact, if he slips to the late teens, pouncing on him makes sense since he could return value in spite of the inherent risk. Pitching keeps creeping up the draft boards and no other pitcher owns the upside of Sale given 200 innings of work. Only question, will he reach them?
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski