While many fantasy players lament about the scarcity of stolen bases or how shallow second base seems, they overlook the steady and productive César Hernández . He does not rack up hard hits or garner attention due to his persona, but Hernandez scored over 90 runs last year with 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases, a feat only accomplished by nine other players. Hernandez appeared in 161 games with 60 RBI and a .253/.356/.362 slash line.
Accompanying his reduced batting average, Hernandez struggled with a precipitous drop in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to .315 last season, his lowest total since 2014. But, he increased his walk percentage to 13.4 percent, a career high, reduced his swinging strike percentage for the fourth consecutive year and lowered his chase rate. Hernandez also turned in his lowest ground ball percentage and hit more fly balls.
Representing the type of patience which plays well atop a batting order, Hernandez also ranked in the top six percent of the league in terms of spring speed according to Statcast (29.2 feet per second). This translated to Hernandez being tied for first in the National League in bunt hits (8), third in infield hits (26), fourth in pitches per plate appearance (4.25) and fifth in walks (95). Among his peers at second base, Hernandez ranked first in walks along with times on base (249), third in runs, on-base percentage and stolen bases. Seems as though Hernandez could thrive as the leadoff hitter in 2019 batting ahead of the Phillies improved lineup.
Although his average dropped last year, he’s slashed .279/.366/.390 over the last three years in 444 games and 1,663 at-bats. Hernandez scored 243 runs with 30 home runs, 133 RBI and 51 stolen bases as well. His .343 BABIP provides hope for positive migration to the mean in the year ahead. It remains to be seen if he will continue to try and get more lift on his batted balls, but Hernandez did increase his launch angle last year to 9.4 degrees compared to a paltry 3.3 degrees in 2017.
Using xSTATS as a guide, Hernandez owns a .282 expected-average the last three years which sets a nice baseline of positive regression. In on-base leagues, Hernandez gains more value due to his ability to get on base over 36 percent of the time. With health, he could score 100 runs, something only 19 players accomplished last year. While many focus on home runs, RBI and stolen bases as counting statistics, they forget about runs.
As the leadoff hitter last season, Hernandez scored 90 runs in 144 games and 563 at-bats with a .252 average. It appears the projections systems foresee a rebound in his average, but they do not see it returning to his three-year rate or expected one:
Hernandez benefits from his home ballpark in terms of home runs, and with some luck, could repeat last year’s total. It’s very likely he could score at least 95 runs and eclipse 100 as the team’s presently constructed. If they add Bryce Harper , it only gets enhanced. Plate discipline may not move the fantasy needle, but Hernandez represents tremendous value at his present price point as the 15th second baseman taken in NFBC drafts.
César Hernández set career highs in games, runs, home runs, RBI and walks while tying his best in stolen bases last season. Yet, his drop-in average and BABIP seem to depress his investment cost for 2019. This provides a unique buying opportunity for a strong offense and its leadoff hitter.
Buy Hernandez for the plate discipline and spot in the lineup, profit if he hits .270 or higher with 100 runs. And for a sweetener, he could hit 13-to-15 home runs with 20 stolen bases as the 170th player off the board. Yes please.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
MLB.com game notes
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