2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Carlos Correa

While Carlos Correa was limited to just 110 games in 2018, it was an underwhelming season for the young Houston shortstop. After a torn ligament in his left thumb cut his 2017 short, lower back soreness sent him to the disabled list last year. Despite the fantasy community salivating over his potential last season, Correa turned in a .239/.323/.405 slash line with 15 home runs, 65 RBI and three stolen bases in those 110 games. Ever since his impressive 2015 campaign, the hype around Correa has been immense, but since the stolen base totals have dissipated and extended disabled list stints in back-to-back years, the buzz around Correa is as low as it has been in recent memory.

A thumb injury wreaks havoc on a hitter and back soreness does the same thing. Certainly, it’s been a down few years for Correa, but some of the peripherals and advanced metric don’t indicate a large discrepancy from years past. Compare the two players below, and determine just how better one is compared to the other, or which one you would rather have. The stats are across two-year time frames.

Yes, there is a big discrepancy in terms of stolen basses, but other than that, Player A and Player B are rather comparable, right? Let’s cut to the chase and reveal the identities of Players A and B.

Player A is Carlos Correa in 2015 and 2016.

Player B is Carlos Correa in 2017 and 2018.

BOOM! Despite underwhelming years, given his ability and potential, the numbers from 2017 and 2018 haven’t been far off from his bigger, more fantasy relevant 2015 and 2016 seasons. Yes, the stolen base numbers are well down, but the walks are up, strikeouts are only up a bit, BABIP is similar and he’s sacrificing a few line drives to hit the ball in the air a bit more. Also, look at the slash lines, wOBA and hard-hit percentage, because they are eerily similar! If it weren’t for a few bad luck injuries, Correa’s overall numbers, minus the stolen bases would actually be better in the last two injury-shortened seasons.

Again, I’ll ask the question; Why is everyone so down on Correa?

The lower back soreness that plagued him for longer than many expected certainly took a toll on his swing. Correa’s hard-hit percentage in 2018 dropped to just 28.8 percent, nearly 11 percent lower than the year before and roughly seven percent below his career mark. His fly ball percentage jumped a bit, but the HR/FB ratio fell to a paltry 13.9 percent. Why? Well, if you are not hitting the ball as hard, fly balls have a decreased chance in leaving the yard, hence the sharp decline in that metric. A return to hitting the ball harder with regularity should lead to additional home runs for the talented shortstop. So long as Correa continues to hit the ball hard and a few of those doubles in the gap (line drives) can sail over the fences, he has every opportunity to post a new career high in home runs, potentially pushing 30 for the year.

The supporting cast in Houston is filled with guys that can get on base, especially those hitting in front of Correa, whom will likely slot in the middle of the Houston order. A full season of good health for Correa could lend itself to monster results and a likely floor of 20 home runs, 90 RBI and a .275 batting average. At this point, and with just five stolen bases over the last two years, anything speed related you get from Correa should be viewed as a bonus.

The shortstop position is very deep this season, but at time of writing, Correa is the ninth shortstop off the board, per NFBC ADP data. While he slots in at ninth, you could easily make the case for him to be the seventh shortstop off the board. It’s been a few years since Correa has returned value for his fantasy owners, but as a mid-fourth round pick, Correa has every opportunity to produce for his fantasy owners.

Health willing, Correa will outproduce his draft value and end the year as a top 5 fantasy shortstop.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com