Finding Nemo jokes aside, the Mets did find a potential breakout candidate in Brandon Nimmo . He logged 433 at-bats last year in 140 games with 77 runs, 17 home runs, 47 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .263/.404/.483 slash line. Among qualified hitters, only Mike Trout , Mookie Betts and Joey Votto recorded an on-base percentage better than Nimmo’s. He also finished with an isolated power of .219 with a 15 percent walk rate and 26.2 strikeout percentage.

Nimmo pulled the ball just under 45 percent of the time with a 37.2 hard hit rate and 17.5 home run per fly ball percentage. Although his swinging strike percentage almost reached 10 percent, Nimmo did keep his chase percentage below 20 with a 75.7 contact rate. Since his projections will rely on his numbers so far in the majors, it will be important to note trends from last season when evaluating Nimmo.

According to xSTATS, Nimmo’s expected slash of .257/.399/.444 fully supports his on-base abilities as does his .373 expected on-base average. He did see a slight reduction in his expected home runs to 15.8, but planning on a slight drop in average makes sense. However, it should not collapse.

On Statcast, Nimmo registered 293 batted ball events with 19 barrels, an average exit velocity of 89.5 MPH and a launch angle of 10.5 degrees. He’s not a fly ball revolution player at this time with only a 33.3 percent fly ball rate on Fangraphs. He will need to produce more line drives to prevent a lower average. Here are his zone profiles to illustrate his average versus his expected batting average on Statcast:

With this in mind, Nimmo’s projections on two of the three sources feels regression will be in the offing in his numbers despite entering his peak years:

At his present price point, Brandon Nimmo could exceed his numbers above and reach the ATC projection. If this happens, he will be worth the risk. Hitting atop an improved Mets lineup should ensure more runs than last year given similar playing time and if Nimmo stays aggressive on the bases, he could reach double digits. His 19 home runs by ATC seem like a potential ceiling, but much more will be known next year about his skill set. For now, there’s room for growth, but time will tell.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski