For the second-straight season, “The Missile” missed almost a month on the disabled list. Aroldis Chapman battled tendinitis in his left knee from May until he succumbed to the injury in August. In 2017, Chapman missed almost a month with rotator cuff inflammation. Whether or not these continue to be holdovers from his overuse in the 2016 playoffs remains to be seen, but like the volatility attached to his position, Chapman’s trying to justify his fantasy standing with a career year.
It’s hard to believe, but Chapman’s never recorded a 40 save season, yet to exceed the 100-strikeout barrier as a Yankee and he has thrown less than 60 innings in each of the last three seasons. Yet, his upside and stability when closing, places him within the top 30 pitchers taken in NFBC drafts around pick number 80 on average.
Chapman finished last year with three wins and 32 saves over 51.1 innings in 55 games. He did strikeout 93 versus 30 walks with a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Although his strikeout percentage rate bounced back to 43.9 percent, his walks rose (14.2 percent) and he traded some ground balls for line drives fueling his hard-hit rate spike.
Of course, some of this can be attributed to the knee, which not only reduced velocity on his fastball, it also flattened its movement making it easier to hit. Here’s a chart to illustrate how Chapman lost vertical movement of his pitches, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
Combine this with the lower velocity, and one can understand why Chapman worked more outside of the zone causing his walk percentage to move over double digits. Here’s Chapman’s velocity chart by season thanks to Statcast:
All will not be lost if taking a chance on Chapman in drafts. First, he’s bound to be better. Over the last three years, Chapman’s fourth among all relievers with a 2.55 xFIP in 162 innings. Within this time frame, Chapman owns a 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 28.8 strikeouts minus walks percentage and a 16.3 swinging strike rate. When he’s on the mound, his numbers prove to be stable.
Add in he’s also fourth among all relievers with 474 strikeouts over the last five years and this eye-popping tweet by Statcast guru, Daren Willman:
Most pitches 95 MPH+ since 2008 including post season:
— Daren Willman (@darenw) January 13, 2019
Justin Verlander 11613
Stephen Strasburg 8328
Gerrit Cole 8072
David Price 7909
Aroldis Chapman 6857
Last year can be a bit confounding as well. Chapman’s contact rate decreased, he induced more swings and his ERA improved compared to 2017, but it feels like he disappointed. Yes, he did not do well versus the Red Sox and the injury bug hit again; but with a depressed average draft position, could he be a buy at an ever-evolving volatile position?
Steamer projects Chapman for four wins, two losses, 31 saves, 97 strikeouts, 29 walks, a 2.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 65 innings. If, and health will determine this, Chapman does reach 65 innings, he should surpass 100 strikeouts. His ratios seem steady with Chapman’s kwFIP of 2.39, courtesy of xSTATS, to his xFIP from last year of 2.58 providing a solid baseline.
His knee and shoulder will be directly connected to Chapman’s ensuing season. If he can regain the vertical movement of his pitches, the strikeouts will accumulate. It also will allow his arsenal to run its full course with more velocity. Here’s a look at his pitches last year in plot maps:
Chapman can work up and down in the zone, plus outside of it. A fully functional “Missile” will be a necessary part of the Yankees operational “Death Star” as the team tries to build an imposing bullpen. Shortening games with a strong offense could be a recipe for success in the year ahead. Getting a known commodity at a reduced price will be alluring, especially if Chapman falls to pick 100 or higher, as he’s done in NFBC drafts to this point.
Fantasy owners will need to discern how to construct rosters, but as the fifth reliever off the board, Chapman could be a bargain. If Chapman reaches 100 strikeouts for the first time as a Yankee and exceeds the 40-save barrier, he could be a difference maker in drafts. Heed the health concerns with the stable skill set and act accordingly.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, BrooksBaseball.net
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