Mirroring the debate atop early drafts between Mookie Betts and Mike Trout , many will also try to decide which first baseman to take first in drafts: Freddie Freeman or Paul Goldschmidt . However, what about Anthony Rizzo ? His four-year streak of at least 30 home runs ended last season, but he still hit 25 along with driving in 101 runs. Only 15 players accomplished both feats last year.

After an early season stint on the disabled list, Rizzo appeared in 153 games accruing 566 at-bats, 74 runs and six stolen bases. He slashed .283/.376/.470 with his first isolated power below 200 (.187) since 2013. Perhaps his back injury sapped his power early on, but, Rizzo did register a hard hit percentage of at least 34% for the third straight season and finished with the lowest swinging strike percentage (6.9%) along with a contact rate of 85.1%, each of which were the best of his career.

For the second straight year, Rizzo surged in the second half. Before the All-Star break last season, he hit .246/.341/.407 with 12 home runs in 371 at-bats (one every 30.91) compared to 13 home runs in 249 at-bats (one every 19.15) after the break. Beneath the surface, Rizzo’s isolated power improved to .221 in the second half and his hard hit rate of 37.2% hints his health was improved.

Over the last three years, Rizzo’s played in 468 games with 1,734 at-bats, 269 runs, 90 home runs, 324 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .283/.384/.507 slash line. He represents a stable skill set at a time when many chase upside. Within this sample, Rizzo’s .225 isolated power and .290 BABIP support his statistics without being reliant on them. His expected statistics also suggest positive migration could ensue. Rizzo’s expected average of .289 the last three years sits above his actual number and if he returns to hitting home runs to the center and opposite fields, his home run total should also increase.

Last year, Rizzo hit 19 of his 25 home runs to his pull side. Yes, hitters can beat the shift in the air, but here are all of his line drives and fly balls from the last three years:

Knowing he improved upon his plate discipline last year, if Rizzo drives more pitches out to center and left-center, it enhances his profile. Shifting to Statcast data, Rizzo recorded fewer barrels last year, but improved on his average exit velocity and hard hit rate. Here’s his last four years versus league average:

Perhaps due to the early season back injury, Rizzo did not generate the same power versus fastballs compared to 2017. Rizzo recorded 97 hits versus fastballs in 2017 with 26 home runs and a .565 slugging percentage. Last season, he registered 92 hits against them with 15 home runs and a .487 slugging percentage. Positive migration against fastballs alone hints at more power. As a reference point, Rizzo ranked 17th in barrels in 2017 but 76th last year after ranking within the top-30 between 2015-to-2017.

Using two different projection systems as a point of reference, each forecasts Rizzo to bounce back compared to last season:

  • Anthony Rizzo Steamer projection: 144 games, 528 at-bats, 91 runs, 29 home runs, 91 RBI, six stolen bases; .284/.384/.511 slash
  • Anthony Rizzo THE BAT projection: 151 games, 559 at-bats, 93 runs, 29 home runs, 93 RBI, eight stolen bases; .281/.385/.511

Neither one tries to overestimate his average, and they reflect his last three-year rates. Getting 29 home runs and a chance at 100 RBI with pocket stolen bases deserves a better average draft position compared to Rizzo’s current price in the mid-to-late 30’s overall. Targeting the bridesmaid after Freeman and Goldschmidt may not be appealing, but in regards to Rizzo at his current price point, he could be a terrific pivot. Especially if one gets a top outfielder and starter in their first two picks then adding Rizzo to the roster.

Every draft will be different, but Rizzo’s ability to produce, possess stable plate discipline and potential upside by simple positive regression, he’s worth taking above his current price.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

SteamerProjections.com

THE BAT projection courtesy of Derek Carty