From a statistical standpoint, Andrew Benintendi had an excellent 2018 campaign, slashing .290/.366/.465 with 16 home runs, 103 runs scored, 87 RBI and 21 stolen bases across 148 games with the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. After hitting 20 home runs and swiping 20 bags in 2017, fantasy owners were slightly disappointed he didn’t join the 20/20 club again. However, a stacked Boston lineup allowed Benintendi to eclipse 100 runs, and the noticeable jump in batting average led to a heightened on base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA and ISO. While fantasy owners may have been left wanting a bit more in a few categories from Benintendi’s 2018 stat line, analytic fanatics will be ecstatic that his WAR more than doubled last year (4.3 WAR).
Benintendi may have only swiped one more bag in 2018 compared to 2017, but his effectiveness on the base paths was excellent. After registering an 80 percent success rate on stolen base attempts in 2017 (20-for-25), Benintendi was a whopping 87.5 percent successful (21-for-24) on attempts last season. Alex Cora has shown that he will let his burners run on the bases, and if Benintendi were to get closer to 30 attempts this season, he could easily eclipse 25 stolen bases this season, assuming the success rate maintains.
Additionally, there are reports that Benintendi will begin the year as the team’s leadoff hitter, and while that may affect his RBI totals, it shouldn’t concern fantasy owners that much. In 21 games as the team’s leadoff hitter last season, he tallied five home runs, 17 runs scored, 15 RBI and three stolen bases. A strong Boston lineup from top to bottom should still give Benintendi every opportunity to drive in around 85 runs in 2019. Furthermore, the sample size is worth noting, but he ran more often out of the leadoff spot, compared to his usual second spot.
BATTING ORDER | STOLEN BASE ATTEMPTS (SBA) | GAMES PER SBA |
Batting 1st (21 games) | 5 | 4.2 |
Batting 2nd (120 games) | 19 | 6.3 |
For what it’s worth, a pace of 4.2 games per stolen base attempt over the course of a 162-game season would lead itself to nearly 39 attempts. Benintendi won’t attempt 39 steals this season, but he surely could approach roughly 30 attempts this season, eclipsing 25 stolen bases in the process.
While the power numbers did take a dip last season, he roped 41 doubles and six triples. His 63 extra-base hits last season easily surpassed the 47 he tallied in 2017. He traded some home runs for doubles last season, which was the product of a reduced hard-hit percentage, increased line drive rate, and lessened fly ball rate. In the process, his launch angle dropped nearly two degrees, making it harder for some of those balls to sail over the fence. Take a look at Benintendi’s launch angle chart for 2017 and 2018, courtesy of Baseball Savant. Notice the decrease of the balls hit right around or above 20 degrees in 2018 compared to his 2017 campaign. However, it was encouraging to see less balls being driven with a downward trajectory.
2017 LAUNCH ANGLE CHART | 2018 LAUNCH ANGLE CHART |
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The 63 extra-base hits are excellent, but if a few of those doubles or triples could translate into home runs in 2019, Benintendi has all the makings of being a member in the exclusive 25/25 club that saw just four players at the table in 2018 (José Ramírez , Mookie Betts , Trevor Story , Francisco Lindor ).
Benintendi just might be a better asset in OBP leagues, compared to those that value batting average. His walk rate of 10.6 and 10.7 percent over the past two seasons are very good, and have helped his OBP remain above .350 each of the past two years. In fact, since the start of the 2017 season, there are only nine players in Major League Baseball that have at least a walk rate of 10.7 percent and a strikeout rate at or below 16.5 percent. Benintendi is one of those players, along the likes of Boston’s Mookie Betts , Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo , Cleveland’s José Ramírez and Cincinnati’s Joey Votto .
The 24-year-old outfielder is an on-base machine and putting him atop the Boston lineup is a smart move by manager Alex Cora. He’s shown to have a reliable fantasy floor, but tapping into the rest of his potential is the next step to the breakout season for Benintendi. Yes, his 20/20 season in 2017 was great, and his increased batting average and runs scored were great in 2018, but we are far from Benintendi’s best.
At the top of a potent Boston lineup, Benintendi provides multi-category stability and elite upside for fantasy owners.
Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
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