2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Adam Ottavino

Adam Ottavino already had a rapport of being one of the most dominant, filthy relievers in the game. With a deadly fastball and dynamic secondary stuff, it’s no surprise that Ottavino’s K/9 was over 10.5 for the fourth straight season, including a career high 12.98 mark last season. Ottavino took his best year as a professional straight to the bank, cashing a $27 million contract with the New York Yankees for the next three seasons. While he won’t close for the Yankees, as southpaw Aroldis Chapman has that gig, he does have closing experience (17 career saves), but you aren’t drafting Ottavino as a reliable source of saves. The veteran right-hander may have limited fantasy upside, but a sub-3.00 ERA with a K/9 above 12.0 surely plays in all formats, and his average draft position (ADP) is far from expensive.

Looking at his Statcast metrics, Ottavino’s 2018 was absolutely superb, as he ranked among the game’s elite in numerous categories. See for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Good grief, Adam Ottavino ! Save some spots near the top of the leaderboard for other guys in the league! Additionally, when he wasn’t striking guys out last season, which he did 36.3 percent of the time by the way, he did an excellent job in limiting hard contact and inducing more ground balls than years prior. Yankee Stadium is still friendly for hitters, but it’s certainly a park upgrade compared to Ottavino’s home digs of Coors Field last season. If he can keep the ground ball rate above 40 percent, like he’s done all but twice in his big league career, he has a great chance of keeping his HR/9 below 1.00 for the second straight season. His three-year spray chart with the Yankee Stadium overlay shows that a few of those fly balls may sail over the fence, but the wind stream and altitude is nothing like that of Colorado.

Ottavino won’t blow you away with fastball velocity, but he boasts a nasty sinker with excellent arm side run and a slider that will make you look silly, whether you are a lefty or righty. When the opposition did make contact, it rarely was good, hard contact, as Ottavino allowed a hard hit rate of just 25.3 percent last season. In terms of barreling up his pitches, opposing pitchers had a hard time doing that last season.

Ottavino lives off his sinker and slider and he had resounding success with each of those pitches this past season. Opposing hitters hit .148 off his slider, and .155 off his sinker, and the two pitches combined for 108 strikeouts last season. Those two pitches were exceptional, but Ottavino’s cutter has some promise when he decides to unleash it. Take a look…

Ottavino’s numbers in 2017 were a factor of coming off Tommy John surgery, but being over a year removed from the surgery, Ottavino was back to being the dominant right-hander he was before the injury. At 33 years old, Ottavino doesn’t have as much mileage on his arm as other relievers at his age hold, but the injuries have begun to pile up for the right-hander.

With Chapman closing games and Dellin Betances likely the next man up, Ottavino may record less than five saves this season, but his ability to boost your team’s ratios and strikeout totals when he toes the rubber is key to rounding out your fantasy pitching staff. Give Ottavino 70 innings in this dominant Yankees pen and we’ll see 100+ strikeouts, a WHIP right around 1.00 and a sub-2.80 ERA. Any saves he gets this year are a bonus, but middle relievers with upside are key to improving your fantasy pitching numbers. At his ADP, Ottavino is a fine selection that will improve your pitching staff’s numbers.

Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com