Nicholas Castellanos: Nick Castellanos had himself a day Saturday going 3-5 with two runs, five RBI and two dingers. Through Saturday, the Tigers OF is hitting .310 with a .351 OBP but only eight dingers. The HR will come and when they do, any chance of acquiring Castellanos for below value will evaporate. Now is the time to harp about the lack of power and the Miggy-less Tigers offensive woes and buy a budding superstar. Castellanos hits the ball VERY hard. On the year, his hard hit percentage is close to 50% (fifth in the majors according to our friends at Fangraphs). So, think about it. Castellanos is making more hard contact and hitting the same basic number of flyballs as last year – you think the HR will increase? Yep, they will. He is a 26-year-old with substantial MLB experience who has been freed from playing defense at 3B. Buy because he is the real deal. He will be on many fantasy baseball title teams come October. [Author note – I wrote this portion of the column on Saturday including “the HR will come.” Lo and behold, Castellanos made me look good by going yard Sunday].
Chad Kuhl : Chad Kuhl went out Friday and pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run on six hits while striking out six. The Pirates fireballer has some pretty decent stats on the year: 3.76 ERA (nice); 1.37 WHIP (a little high); and over 8.5K/9. So, is this the good ERA guy whose WHIP will come down or a bad WHIP guy whose ERA will go up? The positives are: velocity (over 95 mph); walks are down from last year. The negatives are: FIP/xFIP say the ERA is going up; first pitch strike rate is going down; ground ball rate is going down; and the line drive rate is going up. So, that is a bit of a statistical mashup yes? I kind of like the fact that he is throwing more fastballs and more changeups. It has the feel of Ray Searage getting through to a young pitcher and helping him hone his craft. Yep, throw out the stats. I am making a gut call and advocating you all invest now. I am.
Mike Clevinger : Have you watched Mike Clevinger pitch? Long hair flowing, arms and legs seemingly everywhere in herky-jerky madness. No, well you should. For now, we can look at the results. Thursday, the Cleveland hurler posted a pretty seven innings allowing just one earned run and one walk while mowing down 11. On the year, Mike has a 3.15 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP but only 5 wins. If he keeps pitching this way, the wins will surely follow. Thus, the question – can he keep posting those sweet ratios? I say yes. Why? Well, the 46% ground ball rate, 11% swinging strike rate and 67% first pitch strike rate all support continued success. Moreover, the hard hit, walk and line drive rates are both down while his velocity is up. I am in.
Drew Steckenrider : Drew Steckenrider pitched a shut out 9th to earn the save Saturday. Interesting. Kyle Barraclough is the named closer and has converted his four chances this month so there is little outward sign of a change. Still, Barraclough is already 28-years-old and the Marlins are not going anywhere for at least 2-3 years. Thus, by the time they can contend, Barraclough will be in his 30’s. So, who is more likely to be dealt for prospects – the 28 year old Kyle or the 27 year old Steckenrider who has far less major league service time? The bottom line here is that bad teams trade their closer at the deadline and then someone has to step in. If you need to prospect on saves, Steckenrider is a good place to do it – especially because his stats will help you even if he does not close – that 3.66 ERA would be around 2.00 but for one blow up outing early in the year.
Carlos Martínez : Last week we wrote: “Carlos Martínez just did not have it Sunday. He went just 3.6 innings giving 11 baserunners (4H, 7BB) and 5 earned runs. Yeesh. In his two starts since returning from the shelf, Martinez has walked 12 hitters in fewer than 8 innings pitches. That is simply not getting it done. Wildness, injury, low BABIP, high strand rate, and reduced velocity is not the ingredients for imminent success. Martinez has a world of talent but I would strongly consider selling while you still can in redraft leagues.” Well, CMart was wild again last week going five innings, allowing 13 base runners including six BB. That makes 18 BB in his last 12.6 IP. Yuck. Oh and it is not just the walks, when hitters make contact it is solid. Indeed, in his three June starts, CMart’s soft contact rate is below 15%. Double Yuck. With an outing in the launching pad that is Milwaukee next and then a date with the Indians after that, the window for selling is closing.
And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “No one would fault you for paying little to no attention to the AL Central. In a very real sense, there is good cause to be told "move along, there's nothing to see here." Despite their lackluster play over the first third of the season, the Indians are atop the standings simply because there is little competition. However, for roto-purposes, the real world often has little relevance. In that regard, don't sleep on what may happen in Minnesota as the summer rolls on.
Before going down to injury in 2017, Miguel Sano was in the midst of a breakout season, slugging 28 homers in pretty much a half of a season. There's little reason to doubt that Sano will one day be a top slugger in the majors, the major question is when? By all accounts, this season should have been the one where the Twins slugger makes the leap. Instead, he's been shipped back to single-A ball. If this was a talent issue or a thought that he isn't ready for the big leagues, he'd be sent to AAA, so there's every reason to think that this isn't your normal demotion. If Sano rights whatever the Twins think is wrong, there's sneaky power numbers to be acquired if his current roto-owner has lost hope.
Roto-ownership of Byron Buxton , Sano's equally frustrating running mate, should come with a manual as it is trickier than supervising nursery school during nap time the day after Halloween. Perennially touted at the beginning of every season due to how he finished the last, Buxton has never failed to disappoint during the first half. This season, he added a new twist - migraine headaches and playing on a broken foot. Once B-Bux heals and literally has his feet underneath him, he is standings changing combination of power and speed. Keep your eyes open if he's somehow available.
Finally, the one Twin that has actually not disappointed is budding superstar José Berrios . The 24-year-old is easily the best Minnesota pitching prospect since everyone mistook Francisco Liriano for the second-coming of Johan Santana. Berrios' .95 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings isn't a fluke or an anomaly. Given that he's struggled over the last couple seasons due to growing pains, he was probably acquired at a bargain price. If you can benefit from that, do so.”
Response: What? No mention of Kyle Gibson and his 3.27 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and K/9 approaching 9? He may not have the name recognition of Buxton, Sano or Berrios but he sure cost a lot less in March.
Final Note: Is there any reader of this column who has left Ross Stripling on the waiver wire? I really hope not! He gets a shout out for the sixth week in a row here after he went out and produced again, this time with 6.2 IP of four hit ball giving up just two runs while walking no one and striking out six. Still just sayin.
Personal Final Note: Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads out there. I hope you all had a wonderful day with your children and families!