The rookie tag has been removed and now it’s time to see who can survive the dreaded sophomore slump. In some respects the 2017 rookie class was an historic one between just Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger’s performances alone, and that’s just two of 76 rookies from a year ago. You won’t see all 76 here, simply because who wants to read that much and secondly, and more importantly, not all of them will have any meaningful value in terms of fantasy rosters and that’s what we’re all here for.
Hitters
Aaron Judge – Judge comes in to 2018 having posted one of the best rookie campaigns of all time in 2017 with his .284/.422/.627 triple slash line, 52 homers, 128 runs, 114 RBI, and nine steals. It was an astonishing performance, save for a few weeks after the All-Star break but the issue is can he produce anything close to what he did last year? His average, on-base, and wOBA were all the second-highest of his career (to a 65 game run in Low-A in 2014) and his slugging was the highest by more than 100 points. Between his 27-game stint in the majors in 2016 and last year, Judge has 56 career homers in the bigs, that equals the total number he hit in three years, and four levels, in the minors. The acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton this offseason should really help Judge’s ability to keep the prolific numbers up long-term, but regression is almost certainly in the cards in 2018.
Cody Bellinger – He took the league by storm last season when he forced his way up to the bigs earlier than the Dodgers were hoping. Once he was in L.A., his stats told the story for why he stayed in the lineup. A .267/.352/.581 slash line, 39 homers, 97 RBI, 87 runs, and 10 steals made him a five-category producer and a multi-positional qualifier. Unlike Judge above, Bellinger’s numbers from a year ago reflect his typical output in the minors over a full or near full season. That fact leads to the conclusion that he should improve his slash line a bit, while seeing a slight drop in the power department in 2018. All things considered, he is still a top-tier guy especially given his OF/1B qualification.
Josh Bell- In 2017, Bell finally had the breakout season many had been expecting for much of the last two years. Pittsburgh needed his bat too as Andrew McCutchen scuffled at the beginning of the season, Starling Marte was suspended for PED use, and Jung-Ho Kang missed the entire year with an injury. His .255/.334/.466 line was solid, though the average is 20 points or so lower than his career in the minors. Bell’s 26 homers, 75 runs, and 90 RBI were all career bests for the 25-year-old first baseman. Digging deeper, his .278 BABIP is lower than it should be and his 10.6% BB-rate is well below his last few seasons in the system. With the Pirates trading McCutchen, pending a physical, Bell becomes an even more important bat and with that comes an improved batting average and OBP but slightly fewer homers.
Andrew Benintendi – The seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft has been a fast riser through the Red Sox system, culminating in a three-level season in 2016 moving him from High-A to the majors. He backed up the trust Boston had in him with a 20/20 season in 2017 and a very well rounded .272/.352/.424 slash line along with a .301 BABIP and .332 wOBA. His ISO however was a lackluster .154 due to his lack of XBH on the whole with 26 doubles, one triple, and the 20 homers compared to 108 singles. If the Red Sox left fielder can start producing doubles, triples, and keep the home run total where it is, that ISO number as well as counting stats will improve. Still just 23 years old for half the 2018 season, the 20/20 season is a pretty good bet for a floor.
Rafael Devers – Any prospects list last season had Devers as one of the top, if not the top, third base talents in the majors. Now, at just 21 years old, he is one of the youngest players in the majors to have a starting gig in 2018. Devers wasn’t expected to come up at all until some point in 2018 but his bat made a different decision for the Red Sox. In all, over 58 games, he hit .284/.338/.482 with 10 home runs, 34 runs, 30 RBI, and three steals. Coming into his second year, Devers has 20/10 upside with a slash line close to last year’s, though his K-rate should fall from a career high 23.8% back closer to where it has been (15-17%).
Brian Goodwin – Goodwin is certainly one of the older guys on this list at 27 years of age. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a nice second year player to pay attention to. Injuries were most responsible for Goodwin’s playing time in 2017, but he made the most of that time. A .251/.313/.498 line with 13 home runs, 41 runs, 30 RBI, and six steals in 74 games and 251 at bats. That line doesn’t tell the whole story however. His .291 BABIP shows he was a bit unlucky given his above average soft, medium, hard contact rates, his 76.9% overall contact rate and his elite 9.4% swinging strike rate and his career high .247 ISO. It’s a stacked outfield for the Nationals already so there may not be enough bats to go around, but Goodwin has already shown he can produce useable stats in just a part-time role.
Ian Happ – Here we go again with a young Cubs position player, only this time there are more holes in the armor than with others. The 24 home runs caught everyone’s eyes over his 115 games with the club, but the other stats aren’t so great. Throughout his run in the minors his slash line was .275/.352/.471 which is for the most part higher than his .253/.328/.514 from last year. The K-rate is also frighteningly high at 31.2%, when it’s been in the low 20s his entire career, and his BB-rate took a big hit at just 9.4% last year. Happ’s multi-position eligibility is certainly a plus, as is his 32.8% hard contact rate, but the strikeouts have to drop and the walks have to increase if his numbers are going to improve in his second year.
Rhys Hoskins – Hoskins set the baseball world afire when he came up and promptly hit more home runs in his first 34 games than any player in the history of baseball with 18. Mashing the home runs wasn’t the only thing he did well as he hit .259/.396/.618 with a .241 BABIP and .417 wOBA. Every year of his career, his BB rate has risen, topping out at 17.5% this season against a 21.7% K-rate. In the last two full seasons between the minors and majors, he’s hit 85 long balls in 300 games while driving in 255 runs in that same span. He has the makings of a serious middle of the order bat that could very well hit 40 homers in a full major league season in 2018… the addition of Carlos Santana to the lineup certainly won’t hurt.
Trey Mancini – Mancini broke on to the scene in 2017 with a .293/.338/.488 line, 24 home runs, 78 RBI, 65 runs, and a single steal. He also managed to qualify at both first and outfield with 45 games at first and 90 in the outfield. None of his advanced stats are terribly out whack with his past performances even despite his 5.6% BB-rate. Mancini’s contact splits (soft, medium, and hard) and his overall contact rate put him slightly better than above average and his 60-grade power means there could be more where those 24 homers came from. The multi-positional bat plays up in Camden Yards and should make him a top-40 outfield option.
Yoan Moncada – His name has been a household name, or close to it, for quite sometime when he began his reign as the top prospect in baseball back in the Boston system. Now the burgeoning star will try and improve on a lackluster, 54-game, rookie campaign in 2017. He provides a very intriguing combo of speed and power in spades but the issues abound with his bat. The .231/.338/.412 triple slash isn’t bad in the OBP category, especially since it’s 100 points higher than the average. Moncada’s 12.6% BB-rate is the reason for that, but his 32.0% strikeout rate is abysmal. If, and it’s a big if, he can get the swing-and-miss out of his game, his talent could really take off. As it is, a 20/20 season is well within reach but a sub-.240 average is likely to come with that, tanking his value in standard roto leagues.
Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo is an interesting case study. Here’s a guy who should be a 10-15 home run and 10+ steals guy in a full season, yet he hasn’t done that at any point in his career. In 69 games and 177 at bats last year, he slashed .260/.379/.418 with a .360 BABIP and .348 wOBA to go with five homers, 26 runs, 21 RBI, and two steals for the Mets. At that rate if he got 500 at bats he could be the guy I mentioned above, but the Mets simply don’t see him as an every day starter right now. He’s just too hard to trust heading into 2018.
Matt Olson – The 23-year-old A’s first baseman achieved something rarely done last year. What was it? Producing a higher average and BABIP and more homers than singles in a season. The slugger hit .259/.352/.651 with 24 home runs, 45 RBI, and 33 runs in just 59 games in 2017. The batting average is about where it has been through his career and his contact splits put him near elite in the small sample size. The issue for Olson is that the power rate will naturally drop, as his .392 ISO and .411 wOBA are unsustainable heading into 2018. That’s not to say he won’t hit more home runs overall, as he likely tops 30 this season.
Hunter Renfroe – Power, power, power, power. That’s what Renfroe brings to the table and that was on display last year in Petco Park. When he was taken in the first round of the 2013 draft, it was expected that he would be a middle of the order power bat, and save for the average last year, that’s what he is. The slash of .231/.284/.467 is not great and neither is the .275 BABIP. He strikes out far too often (29.2% in 2017) to be reliable in the average department right now. But there’s hope. In 2016 at Triple-A he maxed out his stat line at .306/.336/.557 with 30 home runs, 105 RBI, 95 runs, and five steals in 133 games. Now that slash line is asking too much in the majors but something in the .260 range is possible this year, making him a top-30 outfielder.
Bradley Zimmer – Zimmer’s 101-game first season was cut a tad short by a hand injury late in the year but overall it was a good first foray for the most part. The outfielder known for speed, he’s stole 40+ bags twice in the minors, produced 18 in just under two-thirds of a season in the majors. That’s the good news. The bad news is his .241 average, slightly lower than his minor league average, his 29.8% K-rate, and his .299 wOBA. The good news is that his defense will give him every opportunity to work on his batting skills, he had 168 put outs without an error and had eight outfield assists. Zimmer has outfielder number three upside with his speed and improving power.
Pitchers
Parker Bridwell – Bridwell has been a late bloomer in his career but broke through with the Angels last season with a 10-win season in 20 starts and 121 innings pitched. His 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP were both valuable along with the 10-3 record. The downside was the K/9 rate of 5.43, his lowest since A-ball. He mostly relies on a low-90s fastball-cutter combo with a slider mixed in about 20% of the time. He got away from his change-up and never threw his curveball. Bridwell used a lot of luck to help his numbers given his FIP of 4.84 and xFIP of 5.07 and his .262 BABIP vs. .250 BAA. He is currently outside the Angles rotation looking in, but a strong spring could put him in the fifth spot.
Luis Castillo – The 25-year-old righty acquitted himself quite well after making the jump from Double-A to the majors last year. The righties’ W-L record leaves something to be desired, but what can you expect when the Reds’ offense wasn’t great. Castillo’s peripherals were great at a 3.12 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 3.41 xFIP with a 9.87 K/9 in 15 starts. Stranding 80.1% of baserunners is an elite number as is 58.8% ground ball rate, especially in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark. Castillo introduced a 2-seam fastball to his repertoire mid-season and along with his other upper-90s fastball, one of the best change-ups in the game, and his slider, he has a four-pitch mix that produces a lot of swing and miss and soft contact. If you can snatch him up as your third pitcher, DO IT!
Jacob Faria – After seven years of toiling in the minors, Faria came up mid-season for the Rays and was immediately up to the task. His 5-4 record isn’t eye-popping, nor is his 3.43 ERA or the 4.12 FIP, nor is the 8.72 K/9 but rolled all together it’s a nice package. His June splits were outstanding, but he then faded in the later months of the season ERA-wise. Despite the long time in the minors, he is still just 24 years of age and coming into his prime years. If you can get your hands on the righty late in the draft it would be recommended.
Kyle Freeland – Uncharted pitchers made up most of the Rockies rotation last year and Freeland was a big part of that. Over 28 starts and 156.0 innings, he posted a 4.10 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 11-11 record, with 107 strikeouts. None of those number pop off the page, just like his 6.17 K/9 and his 3.63 BB/9. I know, I know we’re talking about a Rockies starter but here’s the thing: his ERA was better at home than on the road and gave up fewer home runs at home than on the road. His strikeout totals followed the same trend as did his BAA, OBP against, and SLG against. Freeland’s ground ball rate of 53.9% plays well in the huge confines of Coors Field. Overall his numbers aren’t great and he does play in the NL West, but in NL-only leagues, there are worse options heading into 2018.
Lucas Giolito – The one-time number one prospect in baseball has taken a bit of a stumble in recent years, until his seven-start stretch with the White Sox last season. In 45.1 innings he posted a 2.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts. That works out to a 6.75 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9. A left-on-base rate of 92.0% is clearly unsustainable as is his .189 BABIP and the fact that his FIP was 4.94 isn’t great either, though it was a small sample size. If Giolito finds his stuff that made him the top dog in the minors, he could be a number-two starter, but that’s a big if at this point. He’s a risky proposition but one that could pay off.
Jake Junis – Called up in late-May and remaining in the rotation for the rest of the year, he put up pretty respectable numbers for a guy that has been a fringe prospect most of his 4.5 minor league career. He doesn’t have the typical velocity that most top of the rotation guys do, and thus isn’t a top of the rotation pitcher, but he still managed a 7.32 K/9 and just 2.29 BB/9 over his 98.1 innings. The 4.30 ERA took a hit with his relief appearances and his 1.28 WHIP is respectable too. Junis’ preferred to pitch at home as evidenced by his 3.43 ERA versus the 5.03 road mark. To improve his numbers in 2018 he will need to mix up his pitches a bit more than relying on his low-90s fastball and low-80s slider 87% of the time.
Dinelson Lamet – San Diego has been looking for a high strikeout guy since Tyson Ross lost his frontline stuff a few years ago, and they may just have found it in Lamet. The only time in his career that he did not produce a double-digit K/9 was 65 innings at High-A in the beginning of 2016. Since that time he has been right around 11.0 K/9 with decent ERAs to go with it. The problems for Lamet begin with home runs and walks. Even pitching his home starts at Petco Park, he still managed a 1.42 HR/9 mark and a 14.8% HR/FB ratio, those aren’t promising if he wants to drop his ERA from the 4.57 it was last season in 21 starts and 114.1 innings. The strikeout stuff is great, but the ERA, walks, and home runs knock some tarnish off as does the fact he’s pretty much a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball-slider combo being used 95% of the time.
German Marquez – His first start of the year came against the Nationals and he gave up eight runs, after that he pitched to the tune of a 4.05 ERA in the next 28 starts. An 11-7 record over 162 innings with pretty much half of those coming at Coors Field shows he can handle the challenge of the thin air. Going at least six innings 16 times in 2017 while not throwing more than 103 pitches shows the efficiency with which he pitches using his fastball-curveball combination. Marquez shouldn’t have any trouble keeping up his 8.17 K/9 rate or his nice 2.72 BB/9 but the ERA and home run rate will certainly ding his value (he gave up 25 dingers last season). Overall he’s really only worth a late-round pick in an NL only league.
Jordan Montgomery – The Yankees’ southpaw is an interesting case study in the new trend in baseball – not throwing your fastball. He put up a 3.88 ERA over 155.1 innings pitched in 29 starts with an 8.34 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9. Montgomery had a BAA off his fastball of .327, meanwhile it was .172 off the curve, .184 off the slide piece, and .205 against the change. Despite his giving up 21 dingers on the year, only seven came at home even with the short porch. His ERA at home was a solid 3.43 while on the road it was nearly a full point higher at 4.38. The lefty will be in the rotation for the full season in 2018 and as long has he can lower the BAA off the fastball, his numbers will at the very least stay the same if not improve.
Sean Newcomb – The former top prospect of the Angels system made his way up to Atlanta for the first time this past season and threw 100 innings on the dot. The first few starts were great, a 1.48 ERA and a great strikeout rate. But then, the typical Sean Newcomb showed up and it went downhill from there. Finishing with a 4.32 ERA (4.19 FIP, 4.52 xFIP), a 9.72 K/9 rate and a tight 0.9 HR/9, which are the only good numbers. Newcomb’s 5.13 BB/9 was the second-highest rate in the majors among pitchers throwing at least 100 innings. His 1.57 WHIP and .327 BABIP also highlight what went wrong. Atlanta will likely choose to start him out at Triple-A once again, unless he can prove that his pitch mix works and that he can command all four, not just the three he likes to throw, during spring training.
Trevor Williams – Originally brought up to be a member of the bullpen in Pittsburgh, he got his chance in the rotation, and he made the most of it. Over his last 24 starts he posted a 3.65 ERA, 4.07 overall in 31 appearances, and 117 total strikeouts. His ratios in terms of strikeouts and walks both fit with his career averages throughout the minors as does his WHIP of 1.31. The problem he is going to have is relying on anything other than his fastball and sinker. His curveball is barely used, the slider is iffy, and the change-up is mediocre. Still he put up good numbers without those pitches in 2017 and should be able to work on them more in spring training and early in the 2018 season.