| Age: | 31 |
| Bats/Throws: | B/R |
| Height/Weight: | 5'11", 210 lbs |
| Position: | First Base |
On the surface, Carlos Santana signing with the Phillies seemed confusing. In an off-season following the shining debut by Rhys Hoskins who’s capable of playing first base or a corner outfield spot, it seemed like the Phillies would replace Tommy Joseph with an upgrade in Hoskins. However, when looking at the team statistics last year, the Phillies finished tied for 23rd in on-base percentage despite ranking ninth in pitches seen per plate appearance. Players seemed to be buying into Matt Stairs’ patient approach, but not capitalizing on it.
With former top prospect Maikel Franco seeing more pitches, his continued downward spiral in terms of batting average and on-base percentage continued last year. Could Carlos Santana be joining the team to influence Franco and stabilize the top part of the lineup? It’s possible. Santana’s not particularly flashy but very stable. Whether it’s real baseball or fantasy, he’s safe. During the last seven seasons he’s hit at least 18 home runs, drove in 74 or more and finished with an on-base percentage of at least .350 or higher.
For his career, Santana’s 15.2 walk percentage and 17 percent strikeout rate will play well in a lineup which did see pitches, but did not translate them into walks or better production. Philadelphia tied the Angels for 23rd in on-base percentage but scored 20 fewer runs. While there are sexier free agents still on the market, the Phillies seemed to target Santana for a reason. And no, it’s not to make meme’s about Santana and bench coach Rob Thomson being so smooth.
The Phillies can transition Hoskins to the outfield and put Santana at first base with his ability to switch-hit and be in the lineup almost every day. Surprise, but Santana’s displayed durability by playing in at least 152 games in six of the last seven years with the off-year being 143 games. Stable.
Over the last three years, Santana averages 84 runs, 25 home runs, 84 RBI and seven stolen bases with a .250/.362/.450 slash line. Feels like a pretty good baseline. Yet, he’s not reached for in drafts, unless it’s an on-base percentage format where his value sees a sharp increase. Last year, even with Hoskins strong showing at first base, the Phillies cumulative slash line at the position of .247/.309/.450 seems similar to Santana, except the category the team seems to be targeting.
One can split hairs on his batting average which finished at .231 in both 2014 and 2015 but rose to .259 in each of the last two seasons. But the on-base percentage, it’s almost a lock. With an average draft position in almost the 12th round to start the year in NFBC drafts, Santana seems like a steal.
Need a sweetener? As a switch-hitter, Santana should benefit from the improved ballpark at both sides of the plate. According to ESPN's MLB Park Factors, the new home park ranked first in home runs with a 1.409 mark in 2017. Cleveland's Progressive Field ranked 17th overall. For the visual learners, here’s Santana’s spray chart from last year with an overlay of Citizens Bank Park:
It’s silly to suggest all the fielded outs, sacrifice flies or doubles will make it over the wall when Santana heads to the Phillies. But, it’s worth noting how many seem to appear above. If he gets half of them, could Santana exceed his 25 home run average the last three seasons? Do not forget he’s one season removed from hitting 34, which looks like an outlier, but he’s achieved it before.
Totally not suggesting Santana will hit 30 or more home runs as a member of the Phillies this year, but it’s also not out of the realm of possibilities. Many use the 12th round to hit upside or players who could outperform their draft position. Santana’s baseline season should be well worth the present price tag in NFBC drafts and there’s potential for upside.
This year, be the smooth drafter and take a chance on Santana as a stable corner infielder with on-base upside in an improving lineup with a ballpark upgrade. Stable skill sets like his made him a target for the Phillies, fantasy owners should do the same.
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*Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, Foxsports.com and ESPN.go.com