Another fantasy week is in the books which means it is time for another addition of the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Report. Let’s look at which players have their values rising and falling since last week.
Rising Stock
Gorkys Hernández OF, SF- I’d likely recommend selling high on Hernandez here as there is nothing that would indicate his recent surge of production is in his makeup, but we have seen guys come out of nowhere before to be fantasy stars so maybe that is what we have on our hands here. Hernandez saw his first taste of full-time action last season for the Giants, appearing in 128 games and notching 348 at bats. He failed to homer in any of those 348 at bats and hit just .255 with an OPS of .652. 2018 has been a different animal for Hernandez however, as he is hitting .321 with six home runs and an OPS of .874 over 44 games this season.
Devin Mesoraco C, NYM- The change of scenery and increase in playing time has done wonders for Mesoraco who is hitting .261 with five home runs and an OPS of .988 in 15 games as a member of the Mets. Over the last 15 days Mesoraco is hitting .333 with 10 runs, four home runs, nine RBI and an OPS of 1.208. Injuries have really derailed the career of Mesoraco as fantasy owners have been chasing his 25 homer/80 RBI season from 2014 but he hasn’t played in more than 56 games in any season since. Now healthy and showing power Mesoraco should be added in all formats.
Austin Meadows OF, PIT- Meadows was the 9th overall pick in the 2013 draft but it took him til 2018 to make his major league debut as the Pirates, for the past few years, were all set in the outfield with Andrew McCutchen , Starling Marte and Grégory Polanco . Meadows did himself not favors as he dealt with injuries and some inconsistent play but when healthy the talent was evident. Now at “The Show” Meadows looks like a player determined to stick with the major league club as he is hitting .439 with three doubles, one triple, four home runs, seven RBI and three stolen bases over his first 11 games. Meadows is owned in just 50-percent of standard leagues, but that number should be quickly rising over the next few days as he should be owned in all 12 team leagues.
Daniel Mengden SP, OAK- In 2017 Mengden made seven starts for the A’s, going 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA. During those seven starts he flashed great command and a decent 40-percent groundball rate. The one knock on him was the 6.07 K/9 which was significantly lower that the strikeout rate he flashed at the minor league level. Coming into 2018 there was little expectation for Mengden but he had a solid spring and he started popping up on some late round sleeper lists. Those who took the shot on Mengden have been rewarded with a real nice start to his season in which he is 5-4 with a 2.85 ERA. His K/9 rate is again a lowly 5.8 but his BB/9 has dropped from 1.88 last season to 0.81 this season. As a pitch to contact starter he has the advantage of the big home ballpark which he has a 2.54 ERA in this season compared to a 3.54 road ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate his peripheral stats suggest that there isn’t a huge stat correction coming as long as he can continue to hold a league average HR/FB rate. It’s looking like Mengden is the real deal.
Falling Stock
Rhys Hoskins OF, PHI- One of the biggest fears I have as a fantasy owner is over drafting a player based off a limit sample size. In 2017 Hoskins came up and hit 18 home runs in 50 games while boasting a solid 17.5 BB% and a respectable 21.7 K%. Those numbers lead to an ADP of around 40 heading into the 2018 fantasy baseball season. In standard leagues that means Hoskins was going around the 3rd or 4th round based off a 50-game sample size. Whelp, through 51 games this season Hoskins is hitting just .229 with six home runs. The scary thing is that I’m not sure if we are going to see a ton of improvement here from Hoskins moving forward. He has a respectable .309 BABIP, 15.8 BB% and a high but not outrageous 28.4 K%. His HR/FB number could get a slight boost, but he is still hitting 50% flyballs. He makes for a good buy-low candidate but if I was an owner I may be looking to sell him too.
Tyler Chatwood SP, CHI- Chatwood topped many breakout lists heading into 2018 as he was finally getting away from Coors Field where he owned a 6.07 ERA over the last three seasons. His road ERA during that span was a solid 2.57. Many saw his road ERA and figured, OK this is the pitcher we can expect on a regular basis. Unfortunately, that has not been the case as Chatwood just can’t throw strikes. He has already waked 45 hitters over 48.1 innings pitched. He is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA and an unsightly 1.76 WHIP. He has been fortunate to limit most of the damage against him despite his free passes but over his last two starts he has lasted just 5.1 innings while allowing seven runs on 10 hits and walking 11. If he can’t get his control under control soon the Cubs may be forced to put him on the DL or send him to the bullpen until he can get it figured out.
Byron Buxton OF, MIN- It was just a few years ago that Buxton was the No.1 prospect in baseball but as the years pass he is slowly looking like a bigger and bigger bust. Of course, we have seen flashes of Buxton’s talent over the past few seasons as he puts together a strong month every now and then where he will hit a few home runs and swipe a few bases to keep fantasy owners interested but at some point I think we need to just walk away and let him be someone else’s mistake. Buxton has already been on the DL this season but when on the field he is hitting just .156 with zero home run and five stolen bases. In spite of his poor production this season he is still owned in 50-percent of standard leagues and to those owners I just ask why?
Grégory Polanco OF, PIT- I never truly understood the infatuation with Polanco. Since becoming an everyday player in 2015 his season averages are 67 runs, 14 home runs, 58 RBI 17 stolen bases with a .256 average and a .729 OPS. That is about as average as average can be. Now sure, if you are in a deep roto league then I understand wanting his double-digit home run and stolen base upside but what exactly are we hoping for as his ceiling? This season has been a total struggle for Polanco as he is hitting just .205 with 30 runs, eight home runs, 22 RBI and three stolen bases. He hit just .177 during the month of April and is hitting just .213 during the month of May. Sure, the power has been solid this season as he needs just three more home runs to tie his 2017 output, but does he really deserve to be owned in nearly 85-percent of standard leagues? I don’t think so.