Well, I hit on DeAndre Hopkins last week, but missed on Brandin Cooks and Travis Benjamin. Josh Doctson would have been a better play if he didn’t drop that key pass in the end zone. Oh well, onto Week 5. I’ve pointed out some excellent matchups that #FANation needs to attack this weekend.
Oh yeah, follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) as well!
Offense | Left WR | Defense | Right CB | Analysis |
| ARI | John Brown | PHI | Rasul Douglas | Jalen Mills has struggled in coverage and so has Douglas, allowing a 101.7 QB rating when being targets and an even 2 yards per coverage snap.* Brown should see a few extra snaps compared to last week as he tries to shake off this quad issue. However, it is a very favorable matchup for Brown. |
| ATL | ||||
| BAL | Breshad Perriman | OAK | Sean Smith | Smith has allowed a rather high 72.7 percent reception rate this season, but Perriman's reception rate is putrid. He has 13 targets on the season and has hauled in just two of them. Two of 13 people! Don't do it to yourself. If you play him, you're not being contrarian, you're being an idiot. |
| BUF | Zay Jones | CIN | Adam Jones | Jones has 17 targets on the year, which paces Buffalo's wideouts. However, he has just four receptions on the year. Four. Until he displays any sort of reliable production, he cannot be trusted in your lineup. Look elsewhere. |
| CAR | Kelvin Benjamin | DET | Darius Slay | Slay has shadowed big time receivers lately and has done a great job. Slay held Odell Beckham to three catches for 30 yards and Julio Jones to just 50 yards on four catches.* Benjamin drops into the low-end WR3 discussion for me in Week 5. |
| CHI | Markus Wheaton | MIN | Xavier Rhodes | Wheaton doesn't have much to show here in 2017. He hasn't hauled in a pass yet, but perhaps the changing of the guard under center will be a positive boost to the Chicago wide receivers. I mean, could it get worse? We'll have to see how it pans out, but starting Wheaton isn't something I would advise at this juncture. |
| CIN | A.J. Green | BUF | E.J. Gaines | Buffalo has been stiff against opposing wide receivers, making this a less than ideal matchup for Green. However, Andy Dalton will continue to give him the rock and his frame will help him against Gaines. Despite the matchup, you're starting Green in all formats. Don't get cute. |
| CLE | Rashard Higgins | NYJ | Morris Claiborne | Higgins saw just four targets last week and failed to bring any of them in. That nice Week 2 seems to be a distant memory as Deshone Kizer has taken a few steps back. He's too hard to trust and placing him in your lineup is an unneccessary risk. |
| DAL | Dez Bryant | GB | Kevin King | Yes, yes, yes. I love Bryant this week against Green Bay. The Packers boast a less than stellar secondary and with Bryant's volume, he's a WR1 for me in Week 5. Besides his two targets in Week 3, Bryant has seen nine or more targets in each game this season and his seven red zone targets are five more than any other receiver on the squad. |
| DEN | ||||
| DET | Marvin Jones | CAR | Kevon Seymour | Jones needs a coming out party and it could happen against Carolina's zone scheme. His target numbers are down from where they should be, but that's due to the fact that he gets the team's top corner in just about every game. Jones should see a season-high in targets on Sunday and make for a quality flex option. |
| GB | Geronimo Allison | DAL | Chidobe Awuzie | I don't expect Davante Adams to play, and Ty Montgomery seems iffy as well, giving Allison the opportunity to be productive. He should see at least six targets from Aaron Rodgers and that could be enough to provide fantasy value against Awuzie. |
| HOU | DeAndre Hopkins | KC | Terrance Mitchell | Hopkins will likely see some Marcus Peters in this one, but I don't expect shadow coverage. Despite being targeted a ton through the first four weeks of the season, Mitchell has been rather decent. Perhaps I was too hard on him in recent weeks. However, Hopkins is the most targeted player in football and the Watson-to-Hopkins connection will need to be successful for Houston to win this statement game. His high floor makes him a low-end WR1. |
| IND | Donte Moncrief | SF | Rashard Robinson | Robinson has allowed 1.3 yards per coverage snap and 14 receptions on 25 targets.* Moncrief is touchdown dependent and not the Indianapolis receiver you want in your lineup this week. |
| JAX | Marqise Lee | PIT | Artie Burns | It's time to slow the roll on the Marqise Lee hype train. Not only does he have just six catches on 10 targets for 83 yards over the last two weeks, but he has the second-worst WR rating, per Pro Football Focus. The Jacksonville passing offense is brutal and I don't want a piece of it, unless Leonard Fournette is catching the football out of the backfield. |
| KC | Tyreek Hill | HOU | Johnthan Banks | Hill has plenty of big play ability, but Banks took a nice step forward in his second game with his new ball club. He actually graded out as a top five defender on the Houston defense in the dominant 57-13 victory over the Titans.* Hill is a low-end WR2 in primetime on Sunday night. |
| LAC | Tyrell Williams | NYG | Janoris Jenkins | Williams busted out of his slump with a long touchdown grab against the Eagles, but now he has to face off against one of the better cornerbacks the NFL has to offer in Janoris Jenkins. New York's cover corner has allowed 0.92 yards per coverage snap and a 56.6 quarterback rating when targeting him.* I'm low on Williams this week. |
| LAR | Sammy Watkins | SEA | Shaquill Griffin | Here are Watkins' target totals through the first four weeks of the season: 5, 2, 7, and 2. His target numbers are just as inconsistent as his game! Griffin has been decent out wide for the Seahawks, but he is allowing a 70 percent catch rate. Personally, I don't have the stones to play Watkins, but you're desperation at wideout could force you to insert him in your lineup. |
| MIA | DeVante Parker | TEN | Brice McCain | Oh yeah, Parker is an excellent play this week. Jay Cutler was borderline inept against the Saints in London, but Parker still managed to post a respectable stat line. This week, it will be much better. You can comfortably play him as a WR2 in Week 5. |
| MIN | Laquon Treadwell | CHI | Kyle Fuller | Treadwell hasn't done anything this season and he's clearly buried in the pecking order. He'll continue to get snaps, but his production will be minimal. |
| NE | Brandin Cooks | TB | Vernon Hargreaves | Cooks has been hit or miss thus far in 2017. What do I envision for this week? HIT. Only five corners have allowed more receiving yards than Hargreaves so far this season.* Cooks' big play ability will be on display later this evening. He's a solid top-tier WR2 this week. |
| NO | ||||
| NYG | Brandon Marshall | LAC | Trevor Williams | It looks as if Marshall is running out of juice here in 2017. He's getting the snaps and targets, but he's not really bringing them in. He's caught just 16 of his 30 targets. Sure, some of that is likely on Eli Manning, but some is Marshall, too. I'd rather have Beckham and Shepard over Marshall. |
| NYJ | Jermaine Kearse | CLE | Jason McCourty | Can any Jets receiver burn this secondary? Someone will, and Kearse has a good chance. He paces the team's wideouts in snaps and is tied for the team lead in targets. He'll see looks in the end zone and his value in PPR formats is much higher than other formats. |
| OAK | Amari Cooper | BAL | Jimmy Smith | Cooper has struggled mightily here in 2017. On top of that, his quarterback will be E.J. Manuel against a solid Baltimore defense. He drops into flex consideration for me. |
| PHI | Alshon Jeffery | ARI | Patrick Peterson | Goodluck, Alshon. Peterson has allowed just five receptions and three yards after the catch so far this season.* He'll shadow Jeffery for roughly 75 percent of his routes, making Jeffery a flex option this Sunday. |
| PIT | Antonio Brown | JAX | A.J. Bouye | Brown had a bad Week 4 but that won't happen at home in Week 5. He'll see both Bouye and Jalen Ramsey throughout the course of the game, but Brown will produce low-end WR1 numbers in this one. In DFS, ownership will likely be down a smidge. |
| SEA | Paul Richardson | LAR | Kayvon Webster | This Seattle offense is just hard to trust and possibly even harder to watch, sans second half against the Colts. Richardson saw a season-low three targets last week on 50 snaps. He's not the worst flex option. |
| SF | Marquise Goodwin | IND | Vontae Davis | Davis wasn't exactly the top corner we have seen in recent years last week. He allowed five receptions on 101 yards and an alarmingly high 3.06 yards per coverage snap.* Goodwin is currently listed as questionable to play as he deals with a concussion. Aldrick Robinson would benefit from any limitations on Goodwin. |
| TB | Mike Evans | NE | Stephon Gilmore | Evans easily could be the highest scoring wide receiver this week. New England can't stop a nose bleed and I don't expect that to change against a potent Tampa Bay offense. The target monster is a lock for WR1 production. |
| TEN | Eric Decker | MIA | Xaien Howard | Even with Marcus Mariota under center, I'm not particularly huge on Decker. He's averaging just three receptions on five targets per game. Furthermore, even with Corey Davis out, he's accrued just seven targets the past two weeks. No thanks. |
| WAS | ||||
Offense | Right WR | Defense | Left CB | Analysis |
| ARI | Jaron Brown | PHI | Jalen Mills | I liked Brown a lot this week, just for the fact that he was going up against the Eagles secondary. Upon further investigation, he should square off with Jalen Mills more often than not, so you know what that means? FIRE HIM UP! Oh baby, I'm excited! Jaron Brown, yes please, i'll take the touchdown with a second on the side. |
| ATL | ||||
| BAL | Mike Wallace | OAK | David Amerson | Wallace may have found the end zone last week and saw a season-high 10 targets, but we simply can't ignore the fact that he caught just one pass in each of the first three games of the season. He remains a viable deep threat, but from the looks of it, Joe Flacco has no interest in slinging the football downfield. Don't chase last week's production, even against a subpar Oakland secondary. |
| BUF | Andre Holmes | CIN | Dre Kirkpatrick | It's not a great matchup for Holmes and if you want more reasons not to play him, he's received more than two targets in a game just once this season. The Buffalo offense isn't built to sustain many people and right now, it runs through LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay. Holmes isn't startable. |
| CAR | Devin Funchess | DET | Nevin Lawson | Funchess is coming off his best week of the season where he hauled in two of Cam Newton's four touchdown passes. He won't replicate those numbers this week, but he is a threat to find the red zone against the Detroit secondary, especially if he sees near double-digit targets again. |
| CHI | Deonte Thompson | MIN | Trae Waynes | Thompson did have nine targets last week and has a good matchup with Trae Waynes, but we don't know what to expect with Mitchell Trubisky under center on Monday Night Football. View this first start as an experiment and unless you are extremely thin at wide receiver, I wouldn't put Thompson in equation, if you catch my drift. |
| CIN | Brandon LaFell | BUF | Tre'Davious White | White is allowing just a 50 percent catch rate this season and a measly 32 yards after the catch.* LaFell is hardly rosterable in any fantasy format so, in short, he's useless this week. I won't be playing him anywhere. |
| CLE | Kenny Britt | NYJ | Darryl Roberts | Britt saw eight targets in just 46 snaps last week, which is pretty good. However, he only brought in three of those passes, but luckily enough, one of them squeaked in the end zone. Britt is touchdown dependent at this point and I don't see him finding the end zone against the Jets on Sunday. |
| DAL | Terrance Williams | GB | Damarious Randall | Williams is seeing right around 5-7 targets per game, which isn't bad, especially when you're facing off against the Green Bay secondary. That unit has improved, but the numbers would be worse if they haven't squared off against a struggling Russell Wilson and Mike Glennon in half of their games this season. Randall is vulnerable, evidenced by his 1.99 yards per coverage snap statistic.* |
| DEN | ||||
| DET | T.J. Jones | CAR | James Bradberry | No offense to Jones, of course, but no thanks. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones will see the lion's share of the targets, leaving Jones to fight for the scraps. Consider five targets as Jones' upside this week. Yeah, not exactly prime opportunity for Jones this week. |
| GB | Jordy Nelson | DAL | Anthony Brown | It's hard not to like Jordy Nelson on a weekly basis. Brown is one of just five cornerbacks in the National Football League to allow three or more receiving touchdowns on the season.* Nelson is a WR1 this week. |
| HOU | Will Fuller | KC | Marcus Peters | There was a chink in Peters' armor on Monday night when Terrelle Pryor got by him for a long touchdown. Opposing wide receivers have caught 65 percent of their targets against Peters and Fuller is a threat to strike for a big one with Deshaun Watson.* He has plenty of flex appeal this week. |
| IND | T.Y. Hilton | SF | Dontae Johnson | For probably the second time this season, you can feel comfortable inserting Hilton in all your lineups. Hell, he might be a cash game receiver for me! Opposing quarterbacks have had success against Johnson and Hilton is one of the game's better wide receivers, despite his minimal production thus far. Fire him up in your lineups and don't look back. |
| JAX | Keelan Cole | PIT | Joe Haden | No thanks. Cole has just four receptions on the year and hasn't eclipsed the 50-yard mark for the entire season. He saw six targets last week, but did next to nothing with them. If you're starting Cole in seasonal formats, you did a terrible job drafting depth at wide receiver or have been decimated by injuries. |
| KC | Chris Conley | HOU | Johnathan Joseph | I wouldn't have expected much from Conley to begin with, but with most of his snaps coming against Joseph, I expect even less. Joseph has allowed just four receptions on nine targets this season.* Don't start Conley. |
| LAC | Travis Benjamin | NYG | Eli Apple | Apple has struggled in coverage this year and Benjamin's big play ability could come into play on Sunday. I thought it would come last week against the Eagles, and with my unlucky tendency of being one week too early, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened here. He's sneaky in DFS this week. |
| LAR | Robert Woods | SEA | Richard Sherman | Sherman is allowing a measly 50 percent catch rate to opposing receivers and limiting signal callers to a 63.5 QB rating when targeting him.* Woods has been consistent in terms of targets, but his effectiveness hasn't. You can do better than Woods this week. |
| MIA | Kenny Stills | TEN | Adoree' Jackson | The Titans were abused by the Texans last week and Jackson doesn't escape that blame. Stills is a deep threat who warrants tournament consideration in GPP, but Jay Cutler's inefficiencies give me some concern. I'm not worried about DeVante Parker or Jarvis Landry, but Still, I am slightly. |
| MIN | Stefon Diggs | CHI | Prince Amukamara | Volume alone keeps Diggs in your starting lineup and that will remain this week against the Bears. The matchup isn't particularly scary and his high floor firmly entrenches him in the WR2 discussion. |
| NE | Chris Hogan | TB | Brent Grimes | Tom Brady has posted a quarterback rating of 124 when throwing to Hogan through the first few weeks of the 2017 season.* Hogan has found the end zone in three straight contests and a matchup against the Bucs presents an excellent opportunity to extend that streak to four. Start him. |
| NO | ||||
| NYG | Odell Beckham Jr. | LAC | Casey Hayward | Hayward will likely shadow Beckham throughout the course of the game, but the bigger storyline is the health of New York's top receiver. We all know about his ankle injury in the preseason, and last week he was dealing with a finger issue, as well as a hamstring/thigh ailment. He's going to play on Sunday and receive his normal double-digit targets, so you shouldn't worry about him too much. WR1, ladies and gents. |
| NYJ | Robby Anderson | CLE | Jamar Taylor | If big play Robby is every going to shake a big one, this is the week. Even though he's tied with Jermaine Kearse for the team lead in targets, he has six less receptions than his counterpart. He is a GPP play only in DFS and warrants only flex consideration in seasonal formats. |
| OAK | Michael Crabtree | BAL | Brandon Carr | The Raiders expect Crabtree to play, and even if he does, he's a risky start this week. E.J. Manuel is under center and while many were satisfied with his performance last week, I'm not going to have my fantasy team rolling with him. Hopefully you have some depth. Plus, Crabtree isn't guaranteed to suit up. Monitor his status. |
| PHI | Torrey Smith | ARI | Justin Bethel | Smith hasn't quite had his signature moment with the Eagles yet, but with Alshon Jeffery being blanketed by Patrick Peterson, perhaps this is the week. Zach Ertz will continue to get his share of targets, as will Nelson Agholor. However, Smith is averaging nearly five targets per game and with Smith's big play nature, he doesn't need much to post a fantasy relevant day. He has low-end flex and tournament appeal in Week 5. |
| PIT | Martavis Bryant | JAX | Jalen Ramsey | Bryant is a home run threat who performs better at home, but with Jacksonville's elite corners, I'm not very high on Bryant this week. In a GPP, sure, take the risk, but I'd proceed with much caution in cash games or seasonal formats. Too risky of a play against Pro Football Focus' third-highest graded corner.* |
| SEA | Tyler Lockett | LAR | Trumaine Johnson | If you want some exposure to this game in DFS, Lockett may be worth the dart. Johnson has allowed the most receptions and receiving yards among the Rams' corners, but he's also restricted receivers to just a 50 percent catch rate.* Lockett has big play ability, and even though it hasn't shown yet, it could manifest in Week 5. He's flexy this week. |
| SF | Pierre Garcon | IND | Rashaan Melvin | Garcon is a target monster, but Brian Hoyer's early season struggles have resulted in Garcon catching only 20 of his 33 targets on the season. |
| TB | DeSean Jackson | NE | Malcolm Butler | I love Mike Evans and I like DeSean Jackson in this matchup. Aside from one touchdown grab, he hasn't been a huge fantasy factor, but that will change against the Patriots. New England has served as a "get-right" game for just about anyone and it wouldn't be a surprise to me if Jackson posted six grabs for over 100 yards with a long touchdown. In fact, that sounds pretty good to me! |
| TEN | Rishard Matthews | MIA | Byron Maxwell | Matthews continues to get plenty of work and is clearly Marcus Mariota's preferred target. However, with Mariota shaken up, Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden do little to inspire any confidence for Matthews. Volume make him a low-end flex consideration, but no more. |
| WAS |
Now, here are my 10 favorite matchups in the slot this weekend.
Offense | Slot WR | Defense | Slot CB | Analysis |
| LAC | Keenan Allen | NYG | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | DRC is allowing an 80 percent catch rate to opposing wide receivers and his 59 yards after the catch ranks just outside the bottom 10 of slot corners.* Allen gets ample targets and he logged a big play last week against the Eagles. He's an excellent play. |
| DET | Golden Tate | CAR | Captain Munnerlyn | Munnerlyn has been quality out of the slot, but my gut is telling me that Tate is going to go off this week. He's been up and down thus far, but it's hard not to imagine him going off against Carolina. Amendola found the end zone out of the slot against the Panthers last week and I expect Tate to do the same in Week 5. |
| MIA | Jarvis Landry | TEN | Logan Ryan | Only four cornerbacks have allowed more receiving yards from the slot than Ryan has through the first four weeks of the season.* Landry is a target machine who will bounce back after his team's disappearance in London. |
| NE | Danny Amendola | TB | Robert McClain | McClain has been nearly as bad as Ryan has in slot coverage this season. On 13 targets, McClain has allowed 11 receptions for 131 yards.* Love me some Amendola this week. |
| GB | Randall Cobb | DAL | Orlando Scandrick | In a high-scoring game, and perhaps a Packers squad without Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery, Cobb could be in line for a few extra targets. |
| NYG | Sterling Shepard | LAC | Desmond King | King has had his deficiences when covering slot receivers this season and Shepard paces the NFL in receiving yards from the slot position.* He's a solid play in every formats, especially those that grant a full point per reception. |
| LAR | Cooper Kupp | SEA | Jeremy Lane | Kupp has the second highest yards per route run for slot receivers and draws a favorable matchup with Seattle's Jeremy Lane.* Even though, technically, he's not the top receiver on the depth chart, he's Jared Goff's favorite targets. Seattle is tough to beat out wide with Shaquil Griffin and Richard Sherman, but vulnerable out of the slot. |
| MIN | Adam Thielen | CHI | Bryce Callahan | It's well-documented that Thielen has been rather good out of the slot this season and has performed with both Sam Bradford and Case Keenum under center. Thielen was quiet last week, but he still saw eight targets in the contest. He has an excellent matchup against Callahan and the Bears defense. |
| ARI | Larry Fitzgerald | PHI | Patrick Robinson | Fitzgerald gets plenty of targets and has a plus matchup against Patrick Robinson, but Carson Palmer has killed Fitz's efficiency this year. Sure, he had 149 yards against the Cowboys in Week 3, but he has just 127 receiving yards in the other three games. He's better suited for PPR formats at this point in his career, but you could do much worse as a low-end WR2 or WR3. |
| TB | Adam Humphries | NE | Eric Rowe | In an offense featuring Mike Evans, Jameis Winston and DeSean Jackson, Humphries isn't getting nearly enough credit. The third year wideout has caught 14 of 20 targets for 156 yards this season. He's hauled in at least six passes and recorded 68 receiving yards in all but one game this season. The third-year pro is a sneaky play in deeper formats. |
Elite
Mike Evans vs. Stephon Gilmore
Despite combining for just five catches on 50 yards against Xavier Rhodes and Janoris Jenkins, Evans is in line for a huge game against a reeling Patriots secondary. He’s averaging over 10 targets per game and in PPR formats, his lowest output of the year was 13 points. Evans’ floor may be the highest in all of football right now and he could catch two touchdown passes on the year. Gilmore has allowed nine receptions on 13 targets this year for 151 yards and one touchdown.* Honestly, Evans could put up a similar stat line himself. I love him as a top-tier WR1 this week.
Affordable
Sterling Shepard vs. Desmond King
As mentioned in the slot chart above, Shepard leads the National Football League in receiving yards out of the slot.* Furthermore, King has allowed his opposition to post an 83.3 percent catch rate and an average of 13 yards per reception.* Odell Beckham dominates the targets in the New York offense, but Shepard continues to get his looks. He’s got more juice than Brandon Marshall and he’s been much more efficient. Shepard is a solid play in seasonal formats and makes for an affordable value play in DFS.
DeVante Parker vs. Brice McCain
Jay Cutler has been hot garbage lately and couldn’t move the ball against the Saints defense. However, this Tennessee defense may be even worse than New Orleans’. Brice McCain continues to struggle in coverage and we just saw DeAndre Hopkins go over the century mark with a touchdown against McCain and this Tennessee defense. I like Jarvis Landry a lot this week, but Parker has massive upside in this matchup and he ranks in the top in football with 2.11 yards per route run.* Parker is averaging six receptions on nine targets per game this season and he’ll put up legitimate WR2 numbers on Sunday.
Bargain Bin
Jaron Brown vs. Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas
Throughout the course of the game, Brown will see time on both Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas. Yes please! What a great matchup for Brown in Week 5. He’s received 29 targets over the last three weeks, and even though he’s only caught 14 of them, Carson Palmer continues to show that he’s going to target the 27-year-old. Mills has allowed the second most receiving yards among cornerbacks, while Douglas is one of just five receivers to allow two or more yards per coverage snap.* In DFS, Brown is minimum price on FanDuel and rather cheap on DraftKings. He’ll be in my lineups.
*Information gathered from research done at Pro Football Focus.