Campaign for Collins!

In literally every single edition of this article since Week 3, at least in some capacity, I have made the case for Baltimore’s Alex Collins to lead the Ravens backfield. Finally, after well over a month of campaigning for the former Seattle practice squad misfit, it appears that the Ravens are going to start to treat Collins as their lead dog. As we saw last week, the fantasy implications of this move are rather seismic. Collins is currently leading the NFL with a whopping 6.0 yards per carry, and while that number is sure to come down at least slightly, there is little doubt that with a more steady diet of touches Collins will provide immediate fantasy production. To put into perspective on how productive Collins has been; try to fathom how he is on pace to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards, despite the fact that he’s only seeing a shade over 11 touches per game. While rumors of both Terrance West and Danny Woodhead being set to return soon may muddy this backfield picture, it seems pretty clear that Collins’ workload will not be the one affected. Chances are that West will fade into obscurity, while Woodhead’s return will only eat into Buck Allen’s touches, as he handles all of the passing down duties anyway. As I have been saying for weeks now, Collins is the guy to own in this backfield going forward.

Roger Goodell v. Evidence, Reason, and Justice

16 months ago, Ezekiel Elliott was accused of domestic abuse by his ex-girlfriend Tiffany Thompson. Despite the fact that the Columbus police found no evidence to even arrest Elliott, and that seven different eyewitnesses signed sworn affidavits refuting what Thompson was alleging, the NFL still took it upon themselves to investigate. 13 months later, despite heaps of refuting evidence against Thompson’s accusations, commissioner Goodell took it upon himself to hand down a crippling six game suspension to the Cowboys star running back. A month later, in the appeal case brought to NFL arbitrator Harold Henderson, lead NFL investigator on the case – Kia Roberts – testified that Elliott should not be suspended at all. She claimed that after meeting with the accuser several times, her case was not credible. Roberts also mentioned that despite her ranking as lead NFL investigator, she was not included in commissioner Goodell’s decision, while her recommendation was not even mentioned in the league’s final report on the case.

In today’s NFL – The Post Ray Rice Reality – Goodell is always trying to make up for his past mistakes and missed opportunities.

In this case, Ezekiel Elliott is the victim despite all evidence, reason, and justice.

Now while it may seem like I pretended I did in the paragraphs above, I in fact do not have an advanced law degree. Understanding that, please forgive me for simplifying here, but as far as I can understand, after the decision made by U.S. District Judge Katherine Polk Failla on October 30th, Zeke’s appeals campaign has reached the end of the line.

To all fantasy owners and Dallas Cowboys fans alike, it is time to accept reality…

My job here at Fantasy Alarm is not to give these types of political and judicial diatribes, so sorry for that, but I felt it as a way to lead into the assessment of the Cowboys current gaping  backfield vacancy. For a team so predicated on the run and with an offensive line so fearsome, there is certainly going to be a fantasy vacuum in the void that Elliott is leaving behind.

Candidate #1 – Alfred Morris: “Fred” as he is known to many, has been the primary backup to Ezekiel Elliott and is the only other Dallas back to have seen significant reps and posted relevant rushing production so far this season. He is clearly the odds on favorite to suck up the majority of Zeke’s vacant touches.

Candidate #2 – Darren McFadden: McFadden is an interesting name considering his former standing as a top-five draft pick out of college and the fact that he ran for over 1,000 yards in the season prior to Zeke’s arrival. On top of this he’s the most effective pass blocker and pass catcher on the Cowboys backfield roster right now, however for some reason he has remained inactive for the first eight weeks of the season.

Candidate #3 – Rod Smith: Smith is the name most people haven’t heard of, however in both the preseason and in Week 7 he showed flashes of some explosive potential. He also offers high effort on special teams.

Conclusion: The most likely of scenarios is that it will be a combination of all three to start, while the most effective back will win out. Considering their current roster standing, my prediction will likely surprise you… Ultimately, based off skillset, Darren McFadden will end up being the Cowboys lead back during Elliott’s suspension, as he is the most well-rounded of the three. As I said, he ran for over 1,000 yards in the season prior to Elliott’s arrival, while he is by far the best option the team has as a pass blocker and receiver. His work will be invaluable on third downs, while I can see him holding his own as an early down rusher as well. Rod Smith is young and inexperienced, but he’s shown excellent burst when given opportunities. His special teams work will keep him rostered each week, while in this scenario, he should serve as McFadden’s change of pace back. Most surprisingly, I see Alfred Morris as the odd man out in this rotation, despite the fact that he’s been Elliott’s direct backup all season long. He’s a one-dimensional runner and struggles to find his way onto the field in passing situations. He will get the initial cracks at it early on in Zeke’s suspension, but I doubt he will be the lead guy once Week 15 rolls around.

UPDATE (11/04/17): Against all odds and professional expectation, Elliott's suspension has since been postponed by the second circuit appeals court, rendering him eligible for this upcoming Sunday's matchup against the Chiefs. Having said that, all written above still serves an important role of potential future reference, as yet another decision will be made on his suspension status – likely sometime next week. If he ends up suspended after next week's decision – provided there is one – then feel free to refer to the backfield information above. If he doesn't, the saga is likely to continue, as the vengeful Goodell will never relent (see: Deflategate).

From Fish to Philly

Jay Ajayi in this Dolphins offense has become one of the most frustrating storylines to follow each week. The offensive line can’t block, they can’t pass the football, and subsequently the box is stacked, giving J-Train nowhere to run. Following a season in which Ajay racked up over 1,200 yards and registered three different games of 200 rushing yards or more, it’s infuriating to watch him struggle with wild inconsistency in 2017. If you and me feel this way just as fantasy playing bystanders, try to imagine how Dolphins fans and the coaching staff have felt over these first eight weeks.

With the trade deadline coming and going this past Tuesday, this miserable marriage has finally been put to rest. The Dolphins traded Ajayi to the first place Eagles for the exchange of just a fourth round pick in next year’s draft.

Joining a well-oiled offense means that a lot less pressure will be put on Ajayi, while the feeling is mutual in that the Eagles now finally have a featured back that can take the pressure off of their MVP-caliber, second-year, quarterback in Carson Wentz. This seems like a marriage made in fantasy heaven going forward, as now the Eagles have a running back that can be relied upon weekly going forward, while Ajayi now has an offense that can be relied upon to move the football on a regular basis.

As for Miami, expect an initial committee split in their backfield, as Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake look to suck up the leftover touches left behind in Ajayi’s cloud of dust. Willaims is considered the better PPR option, while Drake is the more explosive threat out of the backfield by far. Take that for what you will…

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 8 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 8 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL – As I said last week, this Cowboys rushing attack is in just too good of form at the moment to be slowed down, so it came as no surprise the excellent fantasy day that Zeke had this past Sunday against the Redskins. Along with all of the reasons I provided prior to last week, the muddy and sloppy weather conditions in DC just made the Cowboys ground and pound game plan that much more of a guarantee. For reference, Elliott finished with a career high 33 carries, while his 150 yards and two rushing touchdowns were season highs. Overall an excellent DFS play.

LeSean McCoy, BUF – I wrote in last week’s RB Workload that Shady was poised for a bounce back second half to the season and so far he’s proving me right. In all, he finished with 27 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown, while he added six receptions on seven targets for an additional 22 yards. Or to put it in other terms, McCoy finished as the number one running back on DraftKings for the week. Another home run pick for NostraDomUs.

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – Bell didn’t have the best of fantasy weeks by his standards, however his over 15 points on DraftKings certainly made him a worthwhile start. Overall, adequate production for Bell in what was one of his tougher matchups so far this season. 3-for-3 so far...

Melvin Gordon, LAC – Gordon was one of my favorite plays last week, and for good reason, as he was embarking on the DFS perfect storm entering Week 8… By that I mean that he was set to see an excellent matchup, while coming off a bad game, despite maintaining a consistently high workload throughout the season. Always try to seek out those types of matchups, as they oftentimes spell DFS success -- a perfect combination of low ownership and elite production due to a great matchup and a high touch total. By now you probably know that he lit up the Patriots this past Sunday for 132 rushing yards, including an 87 yard scamper that resulted in a touchdown. 4-for-4 for the prophet.

Affordable Plays

Jay Ajayi, MIA – My first (and only) whiff of the week came from an unsurprising suspect, as Ajayi and this Dolphins offense just hasn’t grooved this season. Luckily for us DFS players, the J-Train is leaving the station for Philly, as he will join a high powered offense looking for an every-down running back. He should become a more reliable option on a week-to-week basis going forward.

LeGarrette Blount, PHI – Blount didn’t explode in the way that I thought he would against the 49ers on Sunday, but in the lineups that I did play him in this week, his 46 yards and rushing touchdown more than outweighed his bargain price tag. Chalk this one up as another win for NostraDomUs. Also keep in mind that this is probably Blount’s last appearance on my DFS picks of the week list, as he will now be overshadowed by Ajayi going forward.

Bargain Play(s)

Joe Mixon, CIN – Despite this not being Mixon’s “coming out party” like many fantasy experts including myself predicted, the fact of the matter is that his 109 total yards made him more than a worthwhile play on DraftKings at just $4,700. Ugly production counts just as well... Remember that.

Flyer Play(s)

DeAndre Washington, OAK – Headed into the week, I mentioned that the Oakland backfield was a tough one to decipher in the wake of the Marshawn Lynch suspension. However, through research and knowledge of the two backfield candidates set to replace Lynch’s production (or lack thereof), I made an educated guess on which one would be the fantasy victor. I predicted correctly, as Washington led the team in rushing yards, receptions, and touchdowns for the week. His bargain $4,100 price tag on DraftKings quickly became laughable as he racked up over 20 points and served as the best GPP flyer (not named Juju Smith-Schuster) of the week.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (43) Wrong: (32)

Prophetic Percentage: (57%)