Is it just me or has fantasy football gotten a little nerdy lately? With each passing season, over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in statistical study and with web sites like Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders producing so much data and statistical analysis, even the casual fantasy owner is becoming more familiar with things like A-Dot and DVOA. However, unlike statistical analysis for baseball, the consistency of data and the year-to-year trends we hope will provide us with added insight into player performance projections is lacking.
As I noted in the Learn Each Teams’ Systems strategy article, baseball is mano y mano. A player’s numbers are based on a series of one-on-one match-ups. A hitter faces one pitcher at a time. A pitcher faces one batter at a time. Their cumulative numbers are then aggregated over a full season and we are able to gauge performance based on things like handedness and ballpark factors. In football, it doesn’t work like that. Yes, the data collected is based on a player’s cumulative performance during each game, but there are a number of variables in play that prevent us from saying that the numbers over the last two or three seasons are indicative of what the player may do in the upcoming season.
In football, the personnel changes so dramatically that a team may not even look remotely the same from year to year. And we’re not just talking about players. We’re talking about coaches and coordinators as well. Take the Denver Broncos, for example. After Gary Kubiak retired, the team brought in Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph as the new head coach and he turned the defensive play-calling over to Joe Woods who coached the team’s defensive backs. The defense will remain a 3-4 base, but Woods isn’t Wade Phillips, Denver’s DC over the last two years, DeMarcus Ware has retired, Brandon Marshall is even more banged up and there are a few new faces still looking to jell with the rest of the unit.
So if Latavius Murray ran for 66 yards on 29 carries against the Broncos in 2015 and then 125 yards on 25 carries in 2016, can we really say that we have a good idea as to what he’s going to do if he faces the Denver defense this year? What about the fact that he’s on Minnesota now with different coaches and a different offensive scheme? OK, well, you might be able to say he’ll suck this year just like he sucked the last two years because of who he is, but you get the point I’m making here. With so many changes from year-to-year, statistical trends are a near-impossibility to identify just by looking at the data.
And obviously it doesn’t end there. We can say that Taylor Gabriel was one of the more consistent wide receivers over his final eight games (nine weeks) last year, but does that mean he will be as consistent this season? Keep in mind that Steve Sarkisian is now running the offense in Atlanta and Julio Jones was dealing with a toe injury over the final six weeks, was used heavily as a decoy and even missed a game entirely. We can say that Gabriel has the potential to post similar numbers, but in actuality, we have no idea because the situation has changed so dramatically.
But don’t worry. This article isn’t intended to crap on fantasy football owners’ newfound desire to geek up their research. There are still plenty of other NFL stats and numbers you can look at to help you during your preseason research and draft prep. They may not be able to help you predict specific player performances, but they can certainly lend a hand during your draft when deciding which players to take and where to take them. We’ll go through the four skill positions one-by-one and see what tasty little stat nuggets we can dig up.
Quarterbacks
Fantasy Points
442.3 – The league-best cumulative number of fantasy points by Aaron Rodgers last year. There were only three quarterbacks who had more than 400 points, but there were 20 quarterbacks who recorded at least 300 fantasy points on the season.
Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | |||
Aaron Rodgers | 442.3 | Philip Rivers | 354.8 | Russell Wilson | 334.3 | Derek Carr | 315.9 | |||
Drew Brees | 422.4 | Blake Bortles | 349.2 | Andy Dalton | 324.7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 314.4 | |||
Matt Ryan | 410.9 | Matthew Stafford | 345.1 | Marcus Mariota | 322.2 | Joe Flacco | 313.7 | |||
Andrew Luck | 382.1 | Dak Prescott | 339.6 | Carson Palmer | 319.5 | Tyrod Taylor | 313.2 | |||
Kirk Cousins | 379.5 | Jameis Winston | 339.0 | Cam Newton | 317.4 | Eli Manning | 304.5 |
27.6 – The league-leading number of fantasy points per game for Aaron Rodgers last year. We’re talking one point per 25 passing yards and four points for a passing touchdown. A league-high of 40 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions certainly helps move the needle, but before you go rushing out to take him in the third round, keep in mind that there were 19 quarterbacks who averaged 20 or more fantasy points per game last season.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | |||
Aaron Rodgers | 27.6 | Kirk Cousins | 23.7 | Marcus Mariota | 21.5 | Derek Carr | 21.1 | |||
Drew Brees | 26.4 | Ben Roethlisberger | 22.5 | Carson Palmer | 21.3 | Russell Wilson | 20.9 | |||
Matt Ryan | 25.7 | Philip Rivers | 22.2 | Dak Prescott | 21.2 | Tyrod Taylor | 20.9 | |||
Andrew Luck | 25.5 | Blake Bortles | 21.8 | Jameis Winston | 21.2 | Andy Dalton | 20.3 | |||
Tom Brady | 24.7 | Matthew Stafford | 21.6 | Cam Newton | 21.2 |
600 pass attempts – There were six quarterbacks who threw over 600 passes last season and if you count the tandem of Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton in Arizona, there were seven teams (New Orleans, Baltimore, Washington, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Philadelphia along with Arizona) who were chucking it around more often than not. Maybe the Ravens pull back given the current situation with Joe Flacco’s back, but the rest should all duplicate.
< 500 pass attempts – There were four teams (San Francisco, Dallas, Miami and Buffalo) who threw under 500 passes last year. We can probably expect the 49ers to step it up with Kyle Shanahan in town, but the other three are definitely run-first in their plan of attack. The Fins would have been on the bubble here, but we’ll all just have to wait and see what Ryan Tannehill’s knee looks like in training camp.
5,000 passing yards – Only Drew Brees threw for over 5,000 yards last season with Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins both clearing the 4,900-yard plateau. After them, there were only 10 other quarterbacks who threw for over 4,000 yards. Still, 13 quarterbacks with over 4,000 yards means there are enough to go around in a 12-team set-up and it looks even more fruitful in a 10-team league. Another reason you can wait on the position.
Individual Numbers to Know
471 – The number of completions thrown by Drew Brees in 2016 which was 35 more than Joe Flacco who finished second in the league.
9.26 – The league-leading number of yards per attempt for Matt Ryan. His targets haven’t changed since last season, but Sarkisian’s penchant for more shotgun and more man-blocking run schemes will likely affect how much play-action the Falcons run. Last year, they were the league leaders in play-action, had the second-most passes (69) over 20 yards and the most passes (17) over 40, so this might have an adverse effect on Ryan’s overall totals.
117.1 – The league-best QB-rating of Matt Ryan in 2016. He also managed the third-highest completion percentage with a mark of 69.8-percent.
6.7 – The average number of interceptions Aaron Rodgers has thrown over the last six seasons. The average. To put it into a more-impressive perspective, understand that there were 20 quarterbacks who threw double-digit interceptions last season with a league-worst 21 for Philip Rivers.
95/580/6 – The league-leading number of rushes, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns for Tyrod Taylor in 2016. He had five more attempts than Cam Newton, 211 more yards than Aaron Rodgers and was tied for rushing touchdowns with Dak Prescott. Taylor is roughly the 18th quarterback off the board in most drafts and averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game.
42 – The number of sacks taken by Tyrod Taylor last season. Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck all followed him with 41. Watch those offensive lines, people!
11 – Number of games in which Russell Wilson threw for one or fewer touchdowns last season, including a three-game stretch between Weeks 6 and 8 where he didn’t throw a single touchdown pass. He also failed to rush for more than 36 yards in 15 of his 16 games and posted negative rushing yards in two games.
4 – The number of times Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for over 4,000 yards during his 11-year career. Understandable considering who his lead back has been over the last four seasons, but keep that in mind. Health plays a major factor here as Big Ben always seems to have some sort of a ding or a dent.
Running Back
Fantasy Points
331.8 – The league-leading total number of fantasy points for David Johnson in a standard (non-PPR) format which scores one point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and six points for a touchdown. There were 21 running backs who posted a total of 150 fantasy points or more in a standard format. Only David Johnson had more than 300, only he and Ezekiel Elliott had more than 250 and there were only nine running backs in total who posted 200 points or more.
Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | Player | Total Pts | |||
David Johnson | 331.8 | Devonta Freeman | 232.1 | Jay Ajayi | 190.3 | Spencer Ware | 166.8 | |||
Ezekiel Elliott | 295.4 | LeGarrette Blount | 227.9 | Frank Gore | 178.2 | Lamar Miller | 162.1 | |||
LeSean McCoy | 246.3 | Melvin Gordon | 213.6 | Latavius Murray | 177.2 | Tevin Coleman | 160.1 | |||
DeMarco Murray | 242.9 | Jordan Howard | 203.1 | Carlos Hyde | 169.1 | Todd Gurley | 157.2 | |||
Le'Veon Bell | 242.4 | Mark Ingram | 196.2 | Isaiah Crowell | 169.1 | Matt Forte | 155.6 | |||
Jeremy Hill | 155.3 |
411.8 – The league-leading number of fantasy points for David Johnson in a 1-pt PPR format.
15 – The number of running backs who posted a total of 200 points or more in a 1-pt PPR format
Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | |||
David Johnson | 411.8 | Devonta Freeman | 286.1 | Jay Ajayi | 217.3 | Spencer Ware | 199.8 | |||
Ezekiel Elliott | 327.4 | Melvin Gordon | 254.6 | Frank Gore | 216.2 | Bilal Powell | 199.0 | |||
Le'Veon Bell | 317.4 | Mark Ingram | 242.2 | Latavius Murray | 210.2 | Carlos Hyde | 196.1 | |||
LeSean McCoy | 296.3 | LeGarrette Blount | 234.9 | Isaiah Crowell | 209.1 | Lamar Miller | 193.1 | |||
DeMarco Murray | 295.9 | Jordan Howard | 232.1 | Todd Gurley | 200.2 | Tevin Coleman | 191.1 |
20.7 – The league-leading fantasy points per game in a standard format for David Johnson. Only Johnson and Le’Veon Bell averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game while there were only six running backs who averaged more than 15 points per game in 2016.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | |||
David Johnson | 20.7 | DeMarco Murray | 15.2 | Jay Ajayi | 12.7 | Spencer Ware | 11.9 | |||
Le'Veon Bell | 20.2 | Devonta Freeman | 14.5 | Latavius Murray | 12.7 | Lamar Miller | 11.6 | |||
Ezekiel Elliott | 19.7 | LeGarrette Blount | 14.2 | C.J. Anderson | 12.4 | Frank Gore | 11.1 | |||
LeSean McCoy | 16.4 | Jordan Howard | 13.5 | Mark Ingram | 12.3 | Matt Forte | 11.1 | |||
Melvin Gordon | 16.4 | Carlos Hyde | 13.0 | Tevin Coleman | 12.3 | Jonathan Stewart | 11.0 |
322 – The league-leading number of rushing attempts by Ezekiel Elliott last season. He was the only running back to have over 300 attempts. The chart below tracks how many running backs saw a minimum of 250 rushing attempts and then ticks upwards to 275 and 300. After two seasons of explosive wideouts and pass-heavy systems implemented it was nice to see a return to a heavier workload for a number of running backs last year. Should be interesting to see if that trend continues or if we simply fall back to 2015 levels again.
250 carries | 275 carries | 300 carries | |
2007 | 12 | 10 | 6 |
2008 | 13 | 8 | 5 |
2009 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
2010 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
2011 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
2012 | 14 | 10 | 5 |
2013 | 11 | 9 | 2 |
2014 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
2015 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
2016 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
12 – The number of running backs who posted 1,000-yard seasons in 2016. Ezekiel Elliott led the way with 1,631 yards which was 318 yards more than the next closest back, Jordan Howard who was the only other player to rush for over 1,300 yards. While there were only a dozen guys who hit that 1,000-yard threshold, we would have seen two more in Melvin Gordon and Carlos Hyde had they stayed healthy. They were three and 12 yards away respectively as each missed three games.
7 – The number of running backs who had double-digit rushing touchdowns in 2016. LeGarrette Blount led the way with 18, followed up by David Johnson (16), Ezekiel Elliott (15), LeSean McCoy (13), Latavius Murray (12), Devonta Freeman (11) and Melvin Gordon (10). Only Gordon and Latavius Murray failed to post 1,000 rushing yards on the year.
10 – The number of running backs who had double-digit touchdowns, rushing and receiving combined. You can add Demarco Murray (12), Tevin Coleman (11) and Mark Ingram (10) to the list above.
Individual Numbers to Know
5.4 – LeSean McCoy’s yards per carry which was the best in the league among running backs with a minimum of 200 carries on the season. Jordan Howard was second with 5.2, followed by Ezekiel Elliott who posted a 5.1 mark. Of running backs with a minimum of 100 carries, Mike Gillislee led the way with a 5.7 YPC on 101 attempts, followed by Bilal Powell who posted a 5.5 YPC on 131 rushing attempts.
14 – The league-leading number of rushes over 20 yards, courtesy of Ezekiel Elliott. He broke three of them for over 40 yards and ended up delivering seven 100-yard games with two of them breaking past the 150-yard mark.
4 – The league-leading number of rushes over 40 yards, courtesy of Jay Ajayi. Three of those rushes came in the games in which he posted over 200 yards. Funny enough, the fourth over-40 rush came in Week 10 against the Chargers. He failed to find the end zone in that game and actually finished the game with 79 yards on 19 carries, so you can guess just how ugly the rest of his day was outside of that one play.
7 – The league-leading number of 100-plus yard games produced by Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard last season. Howard had two games with more than 130 yards and one over 150. Zeke posted five games with over 130 yards and broke past 150 in two of them.
48.8 – Rushing yards per game averaged by Jay Ajayi once you remove his three 200-yard games and his lone 100-plus yard performance. Of the 11 games he played and failed to breach the century mark for rushing yards, he found the end zone in only three of them which means you had half a season of crappy production from him.
9 – The number of touchdowns for Jonathan Stewart which was his combined touchdown total for the previous three seasons. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula was notorious for calling plays that had the quarterback and fullback poaching close to 60-percent of the work inside the 10-yard line. That changed dramatically last year as Cam Newton’s shoulder worsened and concussions piled up. Stewart was used much more extensively and fullback Mike Tolbert was, once again, reduced to plowing the road for him. The addition of Christian McCaffrey is expected to reduce Stewart’s workload inside the red zone again.
3 – The number of touchdowns Ty Montgomery scored in 2016. Considered one of the hottest pick-ups due to his multi-position eligibility, Montgomery failed to find the end zone in 13 of his 15 games last year and was actually more of a disappointment than he was a help for fantasy owners. In fact, the number three is also significant to him as that was the total number of games in which he actually posted 100 or more all-purpose yards. The question now is whether he improves on these totals or if Jamaal Williams and/or Aaron Jones squeeze him out of the backfield for good.
7 – The number of times Lamar Miller saw 20 or more carries in a game. His durability was always in question and head coach Bill O’Brien saw after Week 3 that he needed to reduce Miller’s load during the season. He still saw 20-plus carries against the softer run defenses, but he averaged just 14.7 carries in his other seven games while sitting out the last two of the season.
0 – Rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch in 2016.
1,887,467 – Number of Skittles consumed by Marshawn Lynch during his year off from football.
Red Zone Rushing
71 – The league-leading number of carries inside the red zone for LeGarrette Blount which inevitably led to his surprising total of 18 touchdowns. He saw 13 more carries inside the 20 than David Johnson and was one of just four running backs who had at least 50 carries inside the 20-yard line.
Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tm% | Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tm% | |
LeGarrette Blount | 71 | 42 | 29 | 49.3% | Mark Ingram | 37 | 22 | 9 | 58.7% | |
David Johnson | 58 | 35 | 25 | 69.0% | Ryan Mathews | 37 | 25 | 17 | 25.7% | |
Devonta Freeman | 53 | 30 | 19 | 60.2% | Matt Asiata | 36 | 29 | 20 | 46.8% | |
Melvin Gordon | 52 | 29 | 20 | 74.3% | Todd Gurley | 35 | 20 | 10 | 81.4% | |
Jeremy Hill | 48 | 25 | 16 | 70.6% | Lamar Miller | 34 | 15 | 8 | 58.6% | |
DeMarco Murray | 44 | 29 | 15 | 57.9% | Robert Kelley | 34 | 17 | 10 | 49.3% | |
Latavius Murray | 40 | 26 | 17 | 58.0% | Le'Veon Bell | 33 | 14 | 7 | 73.3% | |
Jonathan Stewart | 40 | 22 | 16 | 58.0% | Carlos Hyde | 33 | 14 | 6 | 53.2% | |
Ezekiel Elliott | 39 | 24 | 13 | 60.0% | Matt Forte | 33 | 16 | 12 | 55.0% | |
LeSean McCoy | 37 | 24 | 10 | 54.4% | Jordan Howard | 32 | 16 | 10 | 61.5% |
120 – The league-leading number of passing targets seen by Arizona’s David Johnson. Of those 120 targets, Johnson hauled in also a league-leading 80 catches for 879 yards and four touchdowns. While Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer had the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and J.J. Nelson at his disposal, Johnson saw 21.6-percent of the targets, including 14 red zone targets which accounted for 21.2-percent of the team’s targets inside the 20-yard line.
4 – The number of running backs who hauled in over 500 receiving yards in 2016. David Johnson led the way with 879 yards while Le’Veon Bell finished a distant second with 616 yards. James White finished with 551 yards and Duke Johnson had 514.
18 – The league-leading number of red zone targets for DeMarco Murray last season which accounted for a whopping 27.3-percent of the team’s red zone passing targets. Given what we’ve heard about Murray’s preseason hamstring issues, the increased workload for Derrick Henry during the second-half of last season and the addition of a sure-handed red zone threat like Eric Decker, Murray’s workload in the red zone passing game should see a decline in 2017.
The two charts below show the top 10 in both overall targets and red zone targets for the running back position. Obviously systems change with the revolving door of coaches and coordinators, but those who have been reliable in the past are going to continue seeing targets this season and should get a little bump in value for PPR leagues.
Player | Targets | Rec | Rec Yds | TD | Tgt% | Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tgt% | |
David Johnson | 120 | 80 | 879 | 4 | 21.6% | DeMarco Murray | 18 | 7 | 3 | 27.3% | |
Le'Veon Bell | 94 | 75 | 616 | 2 | 16.1% | Devonta Freeman | 17 | 7 | 2 | 20.5% | |
James White | 86 | 60 | 551 | 5 | 13.0% | Theo Riddick | 15 | 6 | 3 | 22.7% | |
Bilal Powell | 75 | 58 | 388 | 2 | 16.9% | David Johnson | 14 | 5 | 4 | 21.2% | |
Duke Johnson | 74 | 53 | 514 | 0 | 18.1% | Darren Sproles | 13 | 2 | 1 | 14.4% | |
Darren Sproles | 71 | 52 | 427 | 2 | 10.9% | Mark Ingram | 12 | 5 | 5 | 12.8% | |
T.J. Yeldon | 68 | 50 | 312 | 1 | 12.2% | Tevin Coleman | 12 | 4 | 1 | 14.5% | |
DeMarco Murray | 67 | 53 | 377 | 3 | 15.6% | Bilal Powell | 12 | 3 | 2 | 22.6% | |
Theo Riddick | 67 | 53 | 371 | 5 | 13.1% | Ty Montgomery | 12 | 4 | 3 | 10.2% | |
Devonta Freeman | 65 | 54 | 462 | 2 | 13.5% | Todd Gurley | 10 | 0 | 0 | 27.0% |
When looking at the above charts, there are a few notable this which stand out with regard to looking ahead to the 2017 season:
In an offense that seemed pretty inept last year, likely due to injuries and the revolving door quarterback, Duke Johnson still managed to rack up the fifth most passing targets in the league. With word coming out of Cleveland that Johnson will be lining up in the slot often, his overall receiving numbers should see a solid increase. Whether that increase can come inside the red zone where he only saw seven targets last year is yet to be determined, but there is definitely some promise here.
The Jaguars seemed pretty determined to have Leonard Fournette serve as their bell-cow back, but does that mean he’s going to see all the targets T.J. Yeldon saw in 2016? The rookie has a lot to learn and early reports in camp discuss him being on his toes and having trouble pushing through the line, so perhaps Yeldon stays somewhat relevant, at least as a third-down complement. Yeldon ranked 15th in the league with a 91.6 rating in pass-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus, so there’s obvious value here for the team.
The Rams learned hard and fast that when it came time to call plays inside the red zone, the ball needed to be in Gurley’s hands (see the red zone rushes chart from above). It also needed to be out of the hands of Jared Goff which is why, once inside the 10, it was all about the hand-off.
Wide Receiver
Fantasy Points
209.7 – The league-leading total number of fantasy points for Jordy Nelson in a standard (non-PPR) format which scores one point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and six points for a touchdown. Only three wide receivers (Nelson, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown) scored more than 200 fantasy points with 10 scoring more than 150 and 25 in total over 130 points.
Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | ||||
Jordy Nelson | 209.7 | Julio Jones | 176.9 | Rishard Matthews | 148.5 | Jarvis Landry | 139.3 | Julian Edelman | 134.3 | ||||
Mike Evans | 204.1 | Davante Adams | 171.7 | Michael Crabtree | 148.3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 138.8 | Emmanuel Sanders | 133.6 | ||||
Antonio Brown | 201.3 | Brandin Cooks | 168.3 | Tyrell Williams | 147.9 | Demaryius Thomas | 138.3 | Dez Bryant | 132.1 | ||||
Odell Beckham | 197.6 | Michael Thomas | 167.7 | Amari Cooper | 145.3 | Kelvin Benjamin | 136.1 | Golden Tate | 132.1 | ||||
T.Y. Hilton | 180.8 | Doug Baldwin | 159.8 | Tyreek Hill | 140.0 | Terrelle Pryor | 134.9 | Kenny Britt | 130.2 |
307.3 – The league-leading total number of fantasy points for Antonio Brown in a PPR format which scores one point per reception, one point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and six points for a touchdown. Only three wide receivers (Brown, Nelson and Evans again) scored more than 300 points with 15 scoring over 200 and 40 scoring more than 170.
Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | ||||
Antonio Brown | 307.3 | Davante Adams | 246.7 | Golden Tate | 223.1 | Kelvin Benjamin | 199.1 | Cole Beasley | 189.0 | ||||
Jordy Nelson | 306.7 | Brandin Cooks | 246.3 | Tyrell Williams | 216.9 | Kenny Britt | 198.2 | A.J. Green | 186.4 | ||||
Mike Evans | 300.1 | Larry Fitzgerald | 245.8 | Rishard Matthews | 213.5 | DeAndre Hopkins | 197.4 | Brandon LaFell | 186.0 | ||||
Odell Beckham | 298.6 | Michael Crabtree | 237.3 | Emmanuel Sanders | 212.6 | Allen Robinson | 197.3 | Sterling Sheppard | 184.4 | ||||
T.Y. Hilton | 271.8 | Jarvis Landry | 233.3 | Terrelle Pryor | 211.9 | Adam Thielen | 197.2 | Cameron Meredith | 183.5 | ||||
Julio Jones | 259.9 | Julian Edelman | 232.3 | Pierre Garcon | 201.1 | Jamison Crowder | 193.5 | Dez Bryant | 182.1 | ||||
Michael Thomas | 259.7 | Amari Cooper | 228.3 | Tyreek Hill | 201.0 | Stefon Diggs | 193.3 | DeSean Jackson | 180.5 | ||||
Doug Baldwin | 253.8 | Demaryius Thomas | 228.3 | Mike Wallace | 200.8 | Willie Snead | 192.0 | Marqise Lee | 174.6 |
Looking at the top 20 wide receivers in both formats, the players who saw the biggest bump in the final leaderboards going from standard to PPR were Larry Fitzgerald (11th in PPR, 17th in standard), Julian Edelman (14th, 21st) and Golden Tate (17th, 24th).
13.4 – League-leading fantasy points per game in a standard format for Antonio Brown who just barely edged out Jordy Nelson (13.1). They were the only two who cracked the 13 PPG mark while only 13 receivers averaged 10 or more PPG and 35 averaged at least eight PPG in 2016.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | ||||
Antonio Brown | 13.4 | Michael Thomas | 11.2 | Michael Crabtree | 9.3 | Demaryius Thomas | 8.6 | Golden Tate | 8.3 | ||||
Jordy Nelson | 13.1 | Davante Adams | 10.7 | Tyrell Williams | 9.2 | Kelvin Benjamin | 8.5 | DeSean Jackson | 8.3 | ||||
Mike Evans | 12.8 | Brandin Cooks | 10.5 | Amari Cooper | 9.1 | Terrelle Pryor | 8.4 | Mike Wallace | 8.1 | ||||
Julio Jones | 12.6 | Eric Decker | 10.5 | Tyreek Hill | 8.8 | Julian Edelman | 8.4 | Taylor Gabriel | 8.1 | ||||
Odell Beckham | 12.4 | Dez Bryant | 10.2 | Jarvis Landry | 8.7 | Emmanuel Sanders | 8.4 | Donte Moncrief | 8.1 | ||||
A.J. Green | 12.0 | Doug Baldwin | 10.0 | Larry Fitzgerald | 8.7 | Cameron Meredith | 8.4 | Adam Thielen | 8.0 | ||||
T.Y. Hilton | 11.3 | Rishard Matthews | 9.3 | Kenny Britt | 8.7 | Stefon Diggs | 8.4 | Willie Snead | 8.0 |
20.5 – League-leading fantasy points per game for Antonio Brown in a 1-pt PPR format. He just barely edged out Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans by a half-point per game. Brown was the only one to average at least 20 PPG while there were 13 receivers who averaged at least 15 PPG and 40 who averaged at least 12 PPG in 2016.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | ||||
Antonio Brown | 20.5 | Doug Baldwin | 15.9 | Julian Edelman | 14.4 | Emmanuel Sanders | 13.3 | Jamison Crowder | 12.3 | ||||
Jordy Nelson | 19.0 | Davante Adams | 15.4 | Demaryius Thomas | 14.1 | Rishard Matthews | 13.2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.3 | ||||
Mike Evans | 19.0 | Brandin Cooks | 15.4 | Golden Tate | 13.9 | Kenny Britt | 13.1 | Kelvin Benjamin | 12.3 | ||||
Odell Beckham | 18.7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 15.2 | Dez Bryant | 13.9 | Cameron Meredith | 12.8 | Keenan Allen | 12.3 | ||||
A.J. Green | 18.6 | Michael Crabtree | 15.0 | Tyreek Hill | 13.6 | Willie Snead | 12.8 | Jordan Matthews | 12.2 | ||||
Julio Jones | 18.6 | Stefon Diggs | 14.9 | Tyrell Williams | 13.6 | Mike Wallace | 12.7 | Adam Thielen | 12.2 | ||||
T.Y. Hilton | 17.1 | Amari Cooper | 14.5 | Eric Decker | 13.5 | Pierre Garcon | 12.6 | Alshon Jeffery | 12.2 | ||||
Michael Thomas | 17.1 | Jarvis Landry | 14.5 | Terrelle Pryor | 13.3 | Allen Robinson | 12.5 | DeSean Jackson | 12.0 |
7.1 – The PPG differential for Antonio Brown going from a standard to a 1-pt PPR format. Of the 35 receivers who averaged at least eight PPG in standard formats and the 40 receivers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 1-pt PPR formats, there were 33 cross-overs. The chart below shows their differences in PPG between the two formats.
Player | PPG Diff | Player | PPG Diff | Player | PPG Diff | Player | PPG Diff | Player | PPG Diff | ||||
Antonio Brown | 7.1 | Julian Edelman | 6.0 | Golden Tate | 5.6 | Tyreek Hill | 4.8 | Adam Thielen | 4.2 | ||||
A.J. Green | 6.6 | Michael Thomas | 5.9 | Demaryius Thomas | 5.5 | Davante Adams | 4.7 | Rishard Matthews | 3.9 | ||||
Larry Fitzgerald | 6.5 | Doug Baldwin | 5.9 | Amari Cooper | 5.4 | Mike Wallace | 4.6 | Kelvin Benjamin | 3.8 | ||||
Stefon Diggs | 6.5 | Jordy Nelson | 5.9 | Brandin Cooks | 4.9 | Cameron Meredith | 4.4 | Dez Bryant | 3.7 | ||||
Odell Beckham | 6.3 | Jarvis Landry | 5.8 | Emmanuel Sanders | 4.9 | Kenny Britt | 4.4 | DeSean Jackson | 3.7 | ||||
Mike Evans | 6.2 | T.Y. Hilton | 5.8 | Terrelle Pryor | 4.9 | Tyrell Williams | 4.4 | Eric Decker | 3.0 | ||||
Julio Jones | 6.0 | Michael Crabtree | 5.7 | Willie Snead | 4.8 |
40 – The number of wide receivers who saw at least 100 targets on the season. Mike Evans led the league with 173 while Odell Beckham was second with 169 and Julian Edelman finished third with 159. Only nine receivers saw a minimum of 150 targets while 21 saw at least 120 for the year.
16 – The number of wide receivers who had at least 80 receptions in 2016. “Old Man River” Larry Fitzgerald led the way with 107 receptions, just edging out Antonio Brown who had 106 on the year. Odell Beckham finished with 101 and the three of them were the only ones who cleared the century mark in catches.
23 – The number of wide receivers who posted at least 1,000 receiving yards in 2016. T.Y. Hilton led the league with 1,448 yards, edging out Julio Jones by just 39 yards. They were the only two to clear the 1,400-yard threshold. Both Odell Beckham and Mike Evans cleared the 1,300-yard mark and Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson cleared the 1,200-yard mark.
5 – The number of receivers who scored double-digit touchdowns last season. It seems a bit surprising given the number of targets, receptions and receiving yards we saw last year. Jordy Nelson led the league with 14 touchdowns, just two more than Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and teammate Davante Adams had.
186 – The number of games in which a wide receiver posted at least 100 receiving yards. Julio Jones led the way with seven 100-yard games, just ahead of T.Y. Hilton who had six and Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson, both of whom had five. Jones breached the 130-yard mark four times last season including one game with 174 yards and one 300-yard game.
Individual Numbers to Know
28 – The league-leading number of catches for 20 or more yards that T. Y. Hilton recorded last season. He broke two of them for over 40 yards and racked up six 100-yard games, three of which came in the final five weeks of the season and did wonders for his owners in the fantasy playoffs. He finished the season with 91 catches for 1,448 yards (15.8 YPC) and six touchdowns.
6 – The number of receivers who posted a league-leading six 40-plus yard catches last season. Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Tyrell Williams, A.J. Green, Travis Benjamin and Sammie Coates all showed their big-play ability, though Coates, whose hands seem to be made out of buttered stones, probably could have led this category all by himself if not for so many ill-timed drops.
7.9 – Yards after the catch for Taylor Gabriel who led all receivers who had at least 35 receptions. If there’s an argument in favor of the third-year wideout myth, Gabriel is it as he emerged from the shadows to become one of Matt Ryan’s favorite targets once Julio Jones went down with his toe/foot/leg injury. Over his last eight contests, he averaged five targets per game and had 27 catches for 472 yards (17.5 YPC) with six touchdowns. He even added a rushing touchdown in there to give him seven in total after scoring just one in his first two seasons.
36 – The number of yards A.J. Green fell short by last year to record his sixth-straight 1,000-yard season. Despite several injuries over the years, Green has always managed to stay productive. He played just 10 games last season, the fewest in which he’s played in any year, but still managed to bring his owners 66 catches for 964 yards and four touchdowns. Obviously not what everyone was hoping for, but he should be able to get back on-track this year.
1 – The number of 1,000-yard seasons Kenny Britt has posted in his eight-year career. He served as the featured receiver for the Rams last year and breached the threshold by two yards. It was also just the first season in which he recorded more than 50 receptions. How this guy gets so much buzz each year is mind-boggling.
7.9 – Percentage of dropped passes by Allen Hurns. It’s the highest percentage of any receiver who recorded at least 50 targets on the season. No wonder Marqise Lee is getting so much love in Jaguars camp.
3.5/6.9 – The average number of targets per game for Tyreek Hill in the first eight games last season and the average number of targets per game he had in the last eight. The diminutive wideout took the league by storm last year and is now heading into 2017 as the featured receiver in the Chiefs offense. He has very little competition for targets as he and tight end Travis Kelce should see the lion’s share of the work. The only question now is whether or not he can be as effective now that the rest of the league knows he’s coming.
Red Zone Targets
32 – The leading number of red zone targets seen by Jordy Nelson in 2016. He saw 27.1-percent of the team’s red zone targets and will likely play the role of Aaron Rodgers’ security blanket once again. Teammate Davante Adams emerged as a major target for Rodgers last year as well, but he saw less than 20-percent of the looks inside the red zone.
25 – The number of wide receivers who saw at least 15 targets inside the red zone with Adams, Tyreek Hill and Julian Edelman being the only three to see fewer than 20-percent of the looks inside the 20-yard line.
32.4 – Percentage of red zone targets seen by Emmanuel Sanders in 2016. His 22 red zone targets just barely edged out teammate Demaryius Thomas who had 21 on the year (30.9%). Talk about not playing favorites and sharing the love!
Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tgt% | Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tgt% | |
Jordy Nelson | 32 | 15 | 9 | 27.1% | Golden Tate | 17 | 5 | 2 | 25.8% | |
Odell Beckham | 23 | 10 | 7 | 29.1% | Jamison Crowder | 17 | 7 | 5 | 22.1% | |
Davante Adams | 23 | 10 | 7 | 19.5% | Doug Baldwin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 22.9% | |
Emmanuel Sanders | 22 | 11 | 7 | 32.4% | Brandon LaFell | 16 | 10 | 3 | 24.6% | |
Michael Crabtree | 21 | 7 | 5 | 23.1% | Antonio Brown | 15 | 7 | 5 | 20.0% | |
Demaryius Thomas | 21 | 11 | 8 | 30.9% | Rishard Matthews | 15 | 7 | 5 | 22.7% | |
Brandon Marshall | 21 | 8 | 6 | 26.6% | Tyreek Hill | 15 | 7 | 2 | 19.0% | |
Seth Roberts | 21 | 9 | 4 | 23.1% | Kelvin Benjamin | 15 | 6 | 3 | 23.4% | |
Larry Fitzgerald | 20 | 12 | 9 | 30.3% | Julian Edelman | 15 | 9 | 5 | 16.7% | |
Mike Evans | 19 | 9 | 6 | 26.4% | Marvin Jones | 15 | 8 | 5 | 22.7% | |
Michael Thomas | 19 | 11 | 7 | 20.2% | Quincy Enunwa | 15 | 10 | 5 | 28.3% | |
Allen Robinson | 19 | 11 | 6 | 29.2% | Jermaine Kearse | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21.4% | |
Tyrell Williams | 17 | 10 | 6 | 20.7% |
Tight End
Fantasy Points
136.0 – The league-leading total number of fantasy points for Travis Kelce in a standard (non-PPR) format which scores one point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and six points for a touchdown. Only five tight ends (Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker) scored at least 120 points in 2016 while 15 scored at least 80 points.
Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | ||
Travis Kelce | 136.0 | Cameron Brate | 114.0 | Hunter Henry | 95.8 | ||
Jimmy Graham | 128.3 | Martellus Bennett | 113.1 | Jack Doyle | 88.4 | ||
Kyle Rudolph | 126.0 | Zach Ertz | 105.6 | Coby Fleener | 87.3 | ||
Greg Olsen | 125.3 | Jordan Reed | 104.6 | Jason Witten | 85.3 | ||
Delanie Walker | 123.1 | Antonio Gates | 96.8 | Eric Ebron | 83.2 |
221 – The league-leading total number of fantasy points for Travis Kelce in a PPR format which scores one point per reception, one point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving and six points for a touchdown. Only three tight ends (Kelce, Kyle Rudolph and Greg Olsen) scored more than 200 points with 10 scoring over 150 and 21 scoring more than 100.
Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | Player Name | Total Pts | ||
Travis Kelce | 221.0 | Jordan Reed | 170.6 | Charles Clay | 136.2 | ||
Kyle Rudolph | 209.0 | Martellus Bennett | 168.1 | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 133.9 | ||
Greg Olsen | 205.3 | Jason Witten | 154.3 | Hunter Henry | 131.8 | ||
Jimmy Graham | 193.3 | Antonio Gates | 149.8 | Zach Miller | 119.6 | ||
Delanie Walker | 188.1 | Jack Doyle | 147.4 | Vernon Davis | 114.3 | ||
Zach Ertz | 183.6 | Eric Ebron | 144.2 | Lance Kendricks | 111.9 | ||
Cameron Brate | 171.0 | Coby Fleener | 137.3 | Dwayne Allen | 111.6 |
9 – League-leading fantasy points per game in a standard format for Rob Gronkowski who edged out Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert, both of whom averaged 8.7 PPG. Six tight ends averaged eight or more points per game and there were 15 who averaged at least six points per game in 2016.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | ||
Rob Gronkowski | 9.0 | Jimmy Graham | 8.0 | Zach Miller | 7.3 | ||
Jordan Reed | 8.7 | Kyle Rudolph | 7.9 | Martellus Bennett | 7.1 | ||
Tyler Eifert | 8.7 | Greg Olsen | 7.8 | Antonio Gates | 6.9 | ||
Travis Kelce | 8.5 | Cameron Brate | 7.6 | Eric Ebron | 6.4 | ||
Delanie Walker | 8.2 | Zach Ertz | 7.5 | Hunter Henry | 6.4 |
14.1 – League-leading fantasy points per game for Jordan Reed in a 1-pt PPR format. He just barely edged out Travis Kelce by two-tenths of a point. Reed was the only one to average at least 14 PPG while there were 15 tight ends who averaged at least 10 PPG in 2016.
Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | Player | Pts/G | ||
Jordan Reed | 14.1 | Delanie Walker | 12.5 | Cameron Brate | 11.4 | ||
Travis Kelce | 13.9 | Tyler Eifert | 12.3 | Eric Ebron | 11.1 | ||
Zach Ertz | 13.1 | Rob Gronkowski | 12.1 | Antonio Gates | 10.6 | ||
Kyle Rudolph | 13.1 | Zach Miller | 12.0 | Dennis Pitta | 10.6 | ||
Greg Olsen | 13.0 | Jimmy Graham | 11.8 | Martellus Bennett | 10.5 |
15 – The number of tight ends who saw at least 80 targets on the season. In a breakout season, Kyle Rudolph led the league with 132 targets thanks to new tight ends coach (and now offensive coordinator) Pat Shurmur whose experience working with Sam Bradford in Philadelphia and St. Louis helped Rudolph jell perfectly with his new quarterback. Only five tight ends (Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Delanie Walker) saw at least 100 targets last season.
18 – The number of tight ends who had at least 50 receptions in 2016. Travis Kelce led the way with 85 catches, just two more than Kyle Rudolph. Greg Olsen was the only other tight end who also caught 80 balls on the year.
2 – The number of tight ends who posted at least 1,000 receiving yards in 2016. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen were the only two who breached the 1,000-yard threshold while Jimmy Graham finished third overall with 923 receiving yards. Beyond that, there were a total of six tight ends who had at least 800 receiving yards and eight in total with at least 700 yards.
0 – The number of tight ends who scored double-digit touchdowns last season. In 2015, there were three tight ends who had double-digit scores, four in 2014, three in 2013 and just one in 2012.
27 – The number of games in which a tight end posted at least 100 receiving yards. Travis Kelce led the way with six 100-yard games in 2016. Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham each had three. Kelce had a season-high of 160 yards in one game and breached the 140-yard mark one other time. Interestingly enough, he found the end zone just twice in those six games.
Individual Numbers to Know
15 – The league-leading number of catches for 20 or more yards that Travis Kelce recorded last season. He broke three of them for over 40 yards and finished the season with 1,125 yards on 85 catches. He had four-straight 100-yard games (Weeks 11-14) and five in his last seven games, though it’s tough to count Week 17 as the starters were non-factors that week with the playoffs looming. Yea, Andy Reid!
21.6 – The league-leading yards per catch tally for Rob Gronkowski, based on tight ends who recorded at least 20 receptions on the year. Keep in mind, though, that Gronk only appeared in eight games last season and for the sake of fantasy production, he was useful in just four of those games. Of course, in those four games, he averaged 118.3 yards and had three touchdowns.
7.7 – Average yards after the catch for Travis Kelce who led all tight ends with at least 40 receptions. Rob Gronkowski averaged 9.4 YAC but only had 25 receptions on the season. To put it in perspective for effectiveness both on the field and in fantasy, Kelce racked up 653 total yards after the catch which was 58.0% of his total yards while Gronk had 234, a mark of 43.3% of his total.
528/3 – The minimum number of yards and touchdowns Charles Clay has posted each year over the last four seasons. While the numbers are far from eye-popping, they actually keep Clay in the discussion when looking at tight ends late in the draft. With Sammy Watkins perpetually injured, Clay has remained a very active part of the Buffalo passing game, averaging 82 targets per year in his two season with the club.
104 – The minimum number of targets Greg Olsen has seen in his last five-straight seasons. He’s posted at least 1,000 yards in each of his last three seasons and has had no fewer than 69 catches in that span. Unfortunately, his three-touchdown total in 2016 was the lowest of his career and with questions about Cam Newton’s shoulder, there are concerns over how productive Olsen and the rest of the passing game will be moving forward. Of course, that’s not counting the excessive number of check-downs we’ll see to Christian McCaffrey this year, another factor that could inhibit Olsen’s overall production.
0 – The number of full-seasons played by Tyler Eifert. He appeared in 15 games during his rookie season in 2013, but has only appeared in 22 of a possible 48 over the last three seasons. He’s been cleared to practice in full for training camp, but the back and knee issues definitely need to be carefully monitored.
111 – Career touchdowns for Antonio Gates. He is tied for the all-time lead with Tony Gonzalez and the next-closest active tight end is Rob Gronkowski with 68. He’ll share the workload with Hunter Henry during the Chargers first season in Los Angeles, but should comfortably take the lead as he’s averaged just over seven touchdowns a year over his last seven years.
3.5/9.8 – The average number of targets Zach Ertz saw in the Eagles’ first eight games last season and the average number of targets he saw in the final eight. He and Carson Wentz developed a fantastic on-field rapport last season and while the team brought in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still expected to be a top option in the passing attack this season.
14.2 – The average yards per catch for Jimmy Graham last season which was a career-best for the tight end. He fell 77 yards short of his third 1,000-yard season, but rebounded extremely well from his injury-plagued 2015.
Red Zone Targets
25 – The leading number of red zone targets seen by Kyle Rudolph in 2016. He saw 28.1-percent of the team’s red zone targets and will continue to be a strong red zone presence for Sam Bradford this season.
17 – The number of tight ends who saw double-digit targets inside the red zone in 2016, though seven of them failed to see at least 20-percent of the red zone looks. Only Kyle Rudolph saw double-digit targets inside the 10-yard line.
32.1 – Percentage of red zone targets seen by Jason Witten in 2016. While the targets between the 20’s have seemingly shifted away from Witten since Dak Prescott took over, it’s good to see the young quarterback still knows where the most-reliable hands are when it counts the most.
Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tgt% | Player | RZ Tgts < 20 | RZ Tgts < 10 | RZ Tgts < 5 | Tgt% | |
Kyle Rudolph | 25 | 12 | 8 | 28.1% | Jack Doyle | 13 | 6 | 2 | 18.3% | |
Antonio Gates | 22 | 7 | 5 | 26.8% | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 12 | 7 | 3 | 17.6% | |
Jimmy Graham | 20 | 3 | 2 | 28.6% | Tyler Eifert | 11 | 6 | 5 | 16.9% | |
Travis Kelce | 18 | 7 | 3 | 22.8% | Martellus Bennett | 11 | 6 | 4 | 9.3% | |
Coby Fleener | 18 | 7 | 4 | 19.1% | Dwayne Allen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 10.0% | |
Jason Witten | 18 | 4 | 2 | 32.1% | Zach Miller | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10.3% | |
Delanie Walker | 17 | 7 | 2 | 25.8% | Vernon Davis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9.1% | |
Cameron Brate | 17 | 9 | 4 | 23.6% | Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6.7% | |
Zach Ertz | 17 | 6 | 3 | 18.9% | Eric Ebron | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9.1% | |
Hunter Henry | 17 | 8 | 3 | 20.7% | Vance McDonald | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9.1% | |
Greg Olsen | 16 | 5 | 4 | 25.0% | Lance Kendricks | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5.1% | |
Jordan Reed | 14 | 8 | 3 | 18.2% | Richard Rodgers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5.1% | |
Charles Clay | 14 | 4 | 1 | 25.9% | C.J. Uzomah | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9.2% |