2017 NFL Draft Guide: Size Does Matter

Player size will always be a factor in the NFL and can be used as a tool when valuing players in fantasy. There are many sizing factors for each and every position; we will focus on some of the bigger ones. There are correlations between how well a player produces and his size. 

RB Height & Pounds Per Inch

When looking at RBs some of the factors to look into are height and how much they weigh relative to their height (pounds per inch). We can compare the guys who averaged more than 4.9 yards per carry (YPC) to the guys who averaged less than 3.8 YPC in 2016. What becomes noticeable is that a height of 5’9 or less leads to negative play, as well does weighing more than 3.20 pounds per inch (PPI).

Of the 25 RBs to rush for 650+ yards in 2016 only three are 5’9 or shorter. Of those same 25, only eight were over 3.20 PPI, with only Carlos Hyde averaging more than 4.3 YPC among that group of eight. What does that mean? The more a player weighs relative to their height the less effective they are. The heavier set RBs tend to be slower, and move poorly in space. No player of those 25 were both 5’9 or shorter with a 3.20+ PPI. None of the top-5 fantasy scoring RBs in 2016 (David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray) were 5’9 or shorter. They were all also below 3.20 PPI. Another factor to look at when analyzing the small RBs is a higher injury frequency.  Doug Martin, Ameer Abdullah, Thomas Rawls, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, C.J. Anderson, Theo Riddick, and Giovani Bernard all suffered significant injuries in 2016 and they are all 5’9 or shorter. Of course there will be outliers in this system, and there are other factors to determine RB success (strength of offensive line, age, strength of passing attack) but this information can still be used as a tool for valuing players. Be sure to check on a RBs height and PPI before drafting, numbers don’t lie!

WR Height

The biggest time WR height becomes a factor is down near the end zone, specifically inside the opponent’s 10 yard line. When in open field, short/shiftier guys can find success, but when things get tight and crowded near the end zone the bigger/taller WRs find more success. This can be useful for finding guys who will score more touchdowns, as the shorter guys have to get their TDs on longer yardage plays. The chart below shows the 10 players with the most targets inside the opponent’s 10 yard line at the height 6’1 or taller, and the 10 players with the most targets 6’0 or shorter. You’ll notice that the taller players have about a 10% increase on both catch % and TD %.

QB Height

Quarterback height has long been a debate, mainly when talking about guys being too short. Does it matter? What about guys that are extremely tall? Does it matter? The effective quarterback height range shows to be between 6’2 and 6’5. Guys below 6’2 tend to struggle UNLESS they have the ability to run outside the pocket. There are currently only three starting quarterbacks that are shorter than 6’2, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Tyrod Taylor. Brees has long been an outlier, being both short and not very fast, but he does a good job of being elusive. Wilson and Taylor are two of the best quarterbacks in the league at running and throwing on the run. A key topic that tends to be missed is: can a quarterback be too tall? The answer appears to be yes. The tall quarterbacks tend to struggle with throwing mechanics and slow throwing motions. The chart below shows statistical data from 2016 for all QBs 6’6 or taller. You will notice it is not a very impressive group of names or stats.

When looking into quarterbacks check their height. Try to stay in that 6’2 to 6’5 range.