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A Fantasy Season in Review: (Awards Edition)
What a year it was at the running back position, as 2016 is likely to be remembered as the season the pendulum swung back. While wide receivers regressed – especially the elite ones – this season, with one week still left to go, we already have two more 1,000-yard rushers than last year. Beyond that, when Week 17 is all said and done, six more backs are expected to eclipse the 1,000-yard barrier, while there is a chance even an additional three runners could be added to that list with extra-special season finales. To further prove the point, understand that there are already two more backs with double-digit touchdowns than last year, while it is very likely that another four names are added to that list when Week 17 concludes. All things considered, this “Awards Edition” of The Running Back Workload is likely to be an action packed one with historic performances all over the place to breakdown. Now, without further ado…
Eric Dickerson Award: (Rookie Rusher of the year) –
2015 Winner: Todd Gurley
2016 Preseason Prediction: Ezekiel Elliott
It is largely accepted that in 1983, Eric Dickerson had the single greatest rookie season of any running back ever. Straight out of Southern Methodist University, Dickerson entered the NFL as a Los Angeles Ram, toting the rock 390 times for a rookie record 1,808 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. To that, he added 51 receptions for 404 yards and two more touchdowns. Knowing these numbers makes it pretty understandable why the award is named for Dickerson. Now, for your 2016 rookie backs who best represent what Dickerson did in 1983…
Finalists:
Zeke made it very clear prior to the season’s start that he was gunning for Dickerson’s rookie record. Five months later and here we are now, watching Elliott only 178 yards away from breaking it with one game left to play. Sure he is unlikely to break the record, now that Dallas has home field advantage locked up and will be resting his legs in Week 17, but even without accomplishing his goal there is no question that Elliott’s 2016 rookie season will go down in history as one of the best ever. He’s All-Pro bound, and the leading Pro Bowl vote getter by nearly 100,000 votes; a front-runner for the NFL MVP, and the odds on favorite for this award… Should I even bother telling you the other nominees?
The only other real contender for the award, Howard quietly put together an excellent rookie season. Currently, he’s seventh in the league in rushing with 1,178 yards and is one of only five players this season to average over 5.0 yards per carry (min: 150 carries). In his first season as a pro, he also proved to be a more accomplished receiver than was previously believed, as he is set to finish with over 300 yards receiving and over 30 receptions. What is arguably most impressive of all for Howard this season is the fact that he came in and stole a job that he wasn’t expected to win. Remember that last season the Bears were smitten with their then rookie back Jeremy Langford. Despite that, it turns out that Howard was just too good to leave on the bench. He looks to have all of the makings of an NFL back with staying power and fantasy relevance. 2016 was only his coming out party.
While his season was nowhere near the two above, this is an honor that I feel “Fat Rob” deserved. Keep in mind that this guy couldn’t even land a starting job in college, yet somehow he found a way to wrestle one away for himself in his first season as a pro. As of Week 16, Kelley has racked up 671 rushing yards and six touchdowns in only eight starts. Stretched out into a full season and he was on to something special. He’s certainly the underdog here, but the nomination should be enough of an honor for him and his fans.
Winner:
No surprise here, as Elliott’s rookie season will go down in football lore amongst the best in history. He has a chance to not only win this award and potentially my running back MVP award, but right now he’s also the odds on favorite for the NFL MVP award according to Vegas. None of this is unwarranted of course because statistically and circumstantially he’s been incredible. He’s leading the NFL in rushing, and by a large margin too – a whopping 368 yards to be exact. He’s also the best player on the best team and has been the deciding factor in several of their close games this season. Add on to all of that the fact that Zeke’s also got 16 touchdowns, is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, is leading the NFL in attempts, 20-plus yard runs, yards per game, and yards after contact… This guy is a beast. This award was expected since the day Dallas drafted him, but after the season he had, it is clear that Zeke’s sights are set even higher.
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Adrian Peterson Award: (Comeback Back of the year) –
2015 Winner: Adrian Peterson
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2016 Preseason Prediction: DeMarco Murray
Coming off of a torn ACL that occurred late in the 2011 season, the then 27-year-old Peterson entered Week 1 of the 2012 season with plenty of question marks surrounding his potential production going forward. By season’s end, he finished as the league MVP coming only nine yards short of the single-season rushing record set by the aforementioned Eric Dickerson. Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and mind-boggling 6.0 yards per carry set his 2012 far apart from anyone else in terms of greatest comeback season of all-time by an NFL running back. The nominees for the award bearing his namesake in 2016 list as follows…
Finalists:
Blount doesn’t exactly fit the mold here because his career hasn’t been particularly great, however, after run-ins with the league commissioner in recent years and a collegiate career that ended in expulsion, the fact that he tallied a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns in 2016 should count as a bona fide “comeback.” 2016 was also the first time for Blount since his rookie season in 2010 that he eclipsed 1,000 yards (1,110), so I believe that his nomination here was warranted. It looks like he’s set to finish the year as the league’s sixth best fantasy back… What a season for him it was.
It is no secret that Melvin Gordon is not my favorite running back, in fact in the preseason I “notably omitted” Gordon from this list and actually included him on my expected “Backfield Bust” list. In any event, I was wrong about Gordon this season, as he’s set to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns – provided he suits up for Week 17. Beyond his work as a rusher, he amassed 41 receptions and 419 yards as a receiver, while he added two touchdowns to his total. In all, it was an excellent bounce-back season for Gordon, despite his meager 3.9 yards per carry and injury issues down the stretch.
After an early season loss, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman in favor of new play caller Anthony Lynn. Since that date, Shady has arguably been the best running back in football, as he has absolutely flourished in Lynn’s system. To get down to the nitty-gritty, McCoy is set to finish 2016 with over 1,300 yards, potentially over 15 touchdowns, and as the league’s leader in yards per carry with a whopping 5.5 YPC average. In the scope of his future hall of fame career, 2016 will certainly be remembered as one of his best, and considering how disappointing 2015 was for him, there is no doubt that he is more than deserving of this award.
It wasn’t too long ago that Murray was sitting on top of the fantasy football world after a 2014 season that featured over 1,800 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 57 receptions with the Cowboys. He then packed up and went to play in Philly for Chip Kelly during the 2015 season and disaster set in. He finished the season with only 702 rushing yards and a paltry 3.6 yards per carry average. After essentially being run out of town by an angry mob with burning torches, Murray settled in Tennessee for the 2016 season and looked to start anew. His coach made it clear that they would be going with a north/south running football identity in which the passing game would build off of. Properly fitting into the scheme, Murray is set to finish this season with over 1,300 rushing yards, a 4.5 yards per carry average, and over 10 touchdowns. He might as well be the poster child for this award.
Winner:
Well it’s a good start for Nostra-Dom-Us’ preseason predictions, as I am starting off this awards edition 2-for-2. I can’t say that it wasn’t a close race between Murray and McCoy, but the deciding factor was that Murray’s name was dragged through the mud far worse than McCoy’s last season. Murray entered 2015 as the number one back on many fantasy big boards, and while Shady had high hopes for last season, Murray had almost unattainable expectations. Both of their bounce backs this season are to be honored, but there can be only one winner of this award and I believe Murray has the edge here. The best conformation for Murray in this victory is that he can now say that his 2014 wasn’t a fluke. I went on record last season saying that I doubted his fit in Philly’s system, and I went on record this season saying that he would bounce back in a big way. Nostra-Dom-Us has spoken.
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The Herschel Walker Bronze Crutch: (Backfield Bust of the year) –
2015 Winner: DeMarco Murray
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2016 Preseason Prediction: Latavius Murray
For all of his imposing physical features and outstanding stats as a college and USFL professional player, Walker never seemed to live up to the billing as an NFL player. Sure he had some solid years, but in his 13 NFL seasons, Walker only rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns twice. Considering the hype train that consistently surrounds Walker despite his lack of NFL production, I would consider the “Bust” award a proper fit for his namesake. As much as it will pain us to rehash these season-long disappointments, here are the nominees…
Finalists:
In one season, Gurley went from Rookie of the Year and MVP candidate to “Bust of the Year” on this very list. That is hard to do and quite frankly it cant get much more disappointing than that. His struggles this season and story arc are very reminiscent of DeMarco Murray last season, so I will not count his career out just yet, but if there is ever been a better example of a sophomore slump I haven’t seen it. Just some numbers for purposes of the record here: 845 rushing yards and six touchdowns on just 3.2 yards per carry. Awful, awful, numbers for a player who was number one on many preseason draft boards. With Jeff Fisher out of Los Angeles and a new regime set to take over, hopefully this offense can take a step forward. If Gurley wants to regain his form, he will need a better coaching staff in place, Jared Goff to improve, and a significantly upgraded offensive line. I believe in his talent, but I am not sold on this organization.
Jennings didn’t have the hype of some of the others on this list, but there is no excuse for how bad he was this season. In an offense that features a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback and arguably one of the greatest wide receiver talents of all time, Jennings faced virtually zero stacked boxes all year long, yet still struggled to manage even an awful 3.2 yards per carry average. He failed to eclipse 100-rushing yards in any game this season and mustered up only two touchdowns out of his 163 carries. Along with those numbers, his mere 541 rushing yards signified an awful season all around for the eighth year running back, who for all intents and purposes was the Giants starter for every game. A starting NFL running back has no excuse for numbers so meager.
Just as quickly as Jones replaced Alfred Morris as the starter last season, he lost his job to rookie Rob Kelley this season. Ultimately what it came down to was that Jones suffers from fumblitis. He’s on this list for a simple reason… Expected to be a starting back with little competition for carries, Jones blew ample chances by fumbling the football. He was quickly benched and had almost zero fantasy impact on the 2016 season.
Although he doesn’t have a fumbling problem, Langford’s story is similar to that of Matt Jones. Langford too was a rookie last season and replaced a longtime successful running back. He was expected to enter 2016 as an unquestioned starter, however after a few weeks of ineffectiveness and injury, he was quickly replaced by a more talented – albeit a fifth rounder – running back in Jordan Howard. Like many on this list, Langford’s preseason ranking was high because of expected touches and subsequent production, however after a series of unfortunate events, he faded into obscurity. Expected production followed by no production is quite literally the sports definition of a “bust.”
After an excellent 2015 and eventually a new contract for him in the offseason of 2016, Martin had high expectations for this season. What followed was the opposite. He not only was injured for most of the year, but he also struggled to even touch the 3.0 yards per carry average (currently at 2.9) in the games that he was healthy. His preseason ranking was universally in the first two rounds, and considering his paltry production in 2016, it is hard to call him anything but a “bust.”
Winner:
As you can see, there were a lot of worthy names in this category, but no back disappointed more than Gurley in 2016. While his story is similar to that of DeMarco Murray last season, there are aspects from Gurley’s that I haven’t seen before and likely will never see again. He went from being considered arguably the best back in the league right off the bat in his rookie season to maybe the worst starter in his sophomore campaign. There was more to his struggles than just a bad offensive line/quarterback/coach, despite the fact that the odds were really stacked against him in LA. Hopefully he reevaluates things in the offseason because he’s got some work to do if he wants to win the Adrian Peterson Award next year.
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Larry Centers Trophy: (PPR Performer of the year) –
2015 Winner: Danny Woodhead
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2016 Preseason Prediction: David Johnson
Often gone unrecognized, No running back was more impactful in the passing game or had their production more singularly tied to receiving the football than Larry Centers. Lining up as a fullback for the Cardinals, Bills, Redskins, and Patriots throughout his 14-year career, Centers rarely received many carries. Instead he made his money as a PPR monster, averaging nearly 70 catches per year over his 12 seasons as a starting fullback. Each year many try to duplicate what Centers did throughout his career, some of who have succeeded including Matt Forte, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Reggie Bush just to name a few, but forever this award will remain named after Centers – a man who’s sole reason for existence was getting open out of the backfield. Your 2015 nominees for the Larry Centers PPR Performer of the Year Award…
Finalists:
Despite missing the first three games of the season, Bell still surprisingly has a strong presence at these awards. In terms of the PPR award, he finished second amongst backs in receptions with 75, second in receiving yards with 616, and he added another two touchdowns to his impressive season total of seven in his last seven games. There is no doubt that when on the field healthy and not suspended, Bell is one of the league’s most dangerous backs, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is one of the main reasons why.
I spoke in length for most of the season about David Johnson’s chase to join the exclusive two person club of NFL players to ever rush for 1,000 yards and receive for 1,000 yards in the same season, and while it appears that he is going to come up just short (159 yards with only one game left), his PPR season was still incredible nonetheless. The odds on favorite for this award led all running backs in receptions, yards, targets, and finished second in touchdowns with four. It’s hard to imagine that anyone will defeat Johnson here.
Duke Johnson Jr. –
This is an award that Johnson will likely be nominated for numerous more times throughout his career because his game is just built for it. He served as the Browns most reliable receiver this season and it didn’t matter which of the myriad of signal callers was throwing him the ball, he still produced. He’s set to finish 2016 with nearly 60 catches on over 70 targets with over 500 yards receiving. That is some serious PPR production.
Powell emerged towards the end of last season and was expected to do much of the heavy lifting headed into 2016 until of course the Jets signed Matt Forte. Regardless of the addition of one of the greatest PPR backs of all time, Powell still managed to haul in fourth most receptions of any back this season, while he amassed nearly 400 yards. He added a touchdown to the stat line just for good measure in what ended up being a rock solid PPR campaign.
White is just another edition in a long line of Tom Brady running backs that can flat out catch the football. He currently leads all backs with five receiving touchdowns, is third in receptions, and third in yards. It’s hard to do much better than that.
Winner:
Johnson is set to finish 2016 with one of the best receiving seasons in running back history. Considering that, while there are several other qualified nominees from this season, there was no way that he wasn’t going to win this award. Johnson’s victory now makes me 3-for-4 from my preseason predictions, which – full disclosure – makes me pretty pumped.
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The Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been?” Trophy –
2015 Winner: Jamaal Charles
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2016 Preseason Prediction: N/A
No single football player was expected to do more with his football career than Bo Jackson was. He is considered by many to be the most talented athlete of all-time, but injuries got the best of him. This award is presented to players who came into the season with Bo-like expectations or potential, yet for various reasons things just didn’t work out. The nominees…
Finalists:
It’s a shame to put AP on this list once again but that is the reality of football sometimes. Injuries got the best of him this season and held him out of what could have been another 1,000-plus yards to add to his hall of fame campaign. While he did return just recently, it is clear that he is not ready for action. Hopefully AP takes a full offseason to evaluate things and get his body back into proper shape.
The same goes for Charles because he actually won this award last season too. Hopefully his slew of recent injuries doesn’t spell the end for his career because it would be a damn shame to see the career leader in yards per carry to go out in this fashion. Another full offseason of rehab will be in store for the former Texas Longhorn, and at 30-plus years old, these rehab programs are only going to get harder.
I’m putting Bell on here because I truly wonder what could have been had he not been suspended for the first three games of the season. He’s amongst the league leaders in both rushing and receiving (running backs) and I believe that if he was available for a full 16-game slate that he may have gotten to where David Johnson couldn’t – the 1,000/1,000 club. In any event, because of his early season suspension, we are just left to wonder what could have been…
Winner:
I went with AP here because he really had a chance to do something special this season. At one point, the Vikings were considered one of the best teams in football and all they were really missing was a threat on offense. They missed Peterson this season and with the way their defense was playing for most of the year, there is a chance that AP could have carried this mediocre offense to a deep playoff run. This is still a young team, so they have a chance to improve on things next season, but the irony is that Peterson is no longer young with the rest of the team. Hopefully he can get fully healthy this offseason and be a part of something special building forward in Minnesota.
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Emmitt Smith Golden Football: (MVP) –
2015 Winner: Devonta Freeman
2016 Preseason Prediction: Ezekiel Elliott
There may be contention on who the greatest running back ever is, but in terms of a fantasy award, the numbers never lie. Emmitt Smith is the all-time leader in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and in his time, was widely regarded as a top pass catching back. When really boiled down, it’s tough to find a better example of a consistent fantasy MVP than Smith. Here are the best that 2016 had to offer in terms best overall running back…
Finalists:
I outlined Bell’s successes above and how his early season suspension is what will ultimately hold him back, but it should be noted that in the final seven weeks of the season, no back in the league was better. During the span, Bell rushed for over 118 yards five times, including breakout performances of 146 yards and 236 yards in weeks 11 and 14 respectively. He also tallied nine touchdowns during the final stretch making him the leading fantasy scorer in the second half of the season.
Zeke compiled the greatest rookie season by a running back in recent memory and has arguably been held back because of how badly Dallas has been beating teams this season. He has often been taken out of games early because of crooked scores or solved playoff scenarios, or simply because the coaching staff felt the need to get other backs involved for experience purposes. While taking it light on the young back, Elliott still has managed to take the league by storm to the tune of 1,631 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns. He’s leading the league in rushing by an embarrassing margin and is currently the frontrunner for the NFL MVP award. It will be tough to top him here…
There’s little left to say about DJ that I already haven’t. He’s excelled as a runner and has dominated the league as a receiver out of the backfield. He is just barely going to miss out on the 1,000/1,000 club and nearly single-handedly carried this struggling Cardinals offense all season. I said at one point during the season that there is no back in the league that was more important to his offense and I still find it hard to go against that statement. Johnson is a bona fide star.
I discussed Shady’s bounce-back season in length before so I won’t bore you here, but let me say this. In an offense that had to fire their coordinator during the season and then had to fire their head coach at the end of the season, it is remarkable that McCoy may have put together his best statistical campaign yet. He’s going to eclipse 1,300 rushing yards and has a legitimate shot at 15 rushing touchdowns. To go along with good receiving numbers, there is no way that I couldn’t include him in this category.
I outlined Murray in length as well earlier in this edition, so it is no surprise to see his name in the MVP discussion. His argument here is simple… He was the workhorse back on a team that intended to do nothing but run the football. He was worked a ton and gained some really tough yards on his way to finishing in the top-five in overall fantasy point (running backs). On his way to over 1,300 rushing yards and 10-plus touchdowns, Murray deserved a spot in this discussion.
Winner:
I would like to preface by saying that while I got this last one wrong in my preseason predictions, I correctly predicted four out of the five nominees in the category, which is pretty remarkable if you ask me. I would also like to say that as much as I would love to have finished 4-for-5 in the overall award predictions from the preseason to now, I couldn’t in good conscious give this award to Zeke, despite the excellent argument that can be made for him…
Ultimately what separated Johnson from the rest of the pack was actual fantasy impact. In standard leagues alone, Johnson finished 30 points ahead of the next highest scorer on the season, which happened to be Elliott. Mind you that this doesn’t take into account his receptions, which separated him even more in PPR formats. Johnson finished with 310 standard points to Elliott’s 280. Johnson finished with 16 rushing touchdowns to Elliott’s 15. Johnson finished with 77 receptions to Elliott’s 32. Johnson finished with 841 receiving yards to Elliott’s 363. Johnson finished with four receiving touchdowns to Elliott’s one. Do you get the picture? While Elliott may have been the best player on the best team, that doesn’t matter in fantasy. Johnson out-produced Elliott in nearly every important statistical category, which is what matters most in fantasy formats. I still see that Zeke has an excellent argument for the NFL MVP, but these are the fantasy awards, and there was no one better than Johnson this season in that regard.