While free agency doesn’t officially open until March 9 at 3:00 PM EST, teams have already begun negotiating with players set to hit the open market, and they haven’t really done a good job of keeping it quiet either. Luckily for the sake of this written series, the running back market has remained relatively dormant leading up to the dawning of the NFL new year, so listed below will be the untapped list of the top eligible running back free agents for the 2016 season. Plenty of familiar names here, and due to the recent devaluation of the position, teams may be able to get some quality players here for a very affordable price.
1. Lamar Miller (Age: 25)
While a bit crowded at the top in this deep class of free agent running backs, Miller enters the offseason as the No. 1-rated runner on my board. On top of being only 25 years of age when the season starts in September, Miller has received a very light workload for a starting running back over his first four years in the league, with his high mark coming in at a mere 216 rush attempts in 2014. Out of all of the elite free agent backs listed, Miller by far has the freshest legs, giving him the edge on this list over Doug Martin and Matt Forte by a relatively comfortable margin.
On the field, Miller brings a very versatile skillset to any offense willing to enlist his services this upcoming season. He’s a capable three-down back who can run it between the tackles on first and second down, while he can catch and properly pass block his position out of the backfield on passing downs. He’s rushed for 16 touchdowns over the last two seasons, proving that he can be on the field in the red zone, and above the shoulders, he understands offensive concepts very well.
His running style is a very coveted one in today’s game. As you can see in this clip against the Giants in 2015, he is a magician when it comes to avoiding contact. He masterfully lowers his hips in and out of his cuts, while also possessing home run ability when daylight is available. Expect him to be the best paid back out of this free agent class.
2. Doug Martin (Age: 27)
Martin comes in as the second rated running back here, and while that may be a surprise to many – considering he finished second in the NFL in rushing last season – Martin does have some flaws that keep him listed below Lamar Miller. First and foremost, out of his four years in the NFL, two were lost due to injury. Secondly, some question Martin’s motor without contract urgency or playoff standings at stake. While the second concern is less confirmed and potentially a creation of the frustrated Tampa Bay media, Martin’s injury history and heavy workload in his two healthy seasons raise some red flags to potential open-market buyers.
Curtosey of Profootballfocus.com
Going off his most recent tape, it was tough to find another runner in the league who committed to every play with more urgency than “The Muscle Hamster.” His legs would stop moving under no circumstances, while his hop-cuts proved devastating to opposing defenses. If he can continue to provide this type of tenacious work on the ground in 2016, one lucky team will have found themselves a bargain back for years to come.
3. Matt Forte (Age: 30)
Although his production is clearly on the decline, Forte will provide a team with a good offensive line, excellent veteran presence, elite third down production, and tried and true between the tackles running on earlier downs. He is one of the most consistent options on the market, and will work very well with the proper spell back behind him. Expect Forte to have at least two good years left in him, while his potential during that short span should be higher than every back listed below him on this list.
4. Chris Ivory (Age: 28)
While Ivory’s running style limits his longevity in this league, his production last season was undeniable and is something that plenty of teams in this league could use. The fact that he wore out badly down the stretch last season might scare some teams away, but as of now, it appears that the Jaguars have emerged as the winners of his miniscule sized sweepstakes. Backed up by another competent back in T.J. Yeldon, Ivory should have another successful season in 2016, likely serving as a red zone specialist and second half grinder for the Jags.
5. Alfred Morris (Age: 27)
Morris and the Redskins have shared some great moments over the years, capturing two division titles during his four-season stint with the team. During that same span, Morris compiled 4,713 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, proving to be one of the better fantasy backs in the game since 2012. He’s had a pretty heavy workload so far as a pro, but with Matt Jones also in the fold last season, Morris saw the least amount of touches in his career for a single season.
He seems to fit strictly in a zone scheme considering his running style, while a ketchup popsicle is more useful to a woman wearing white gloves than he is to an offense on third downs. As it sits, Morris seems to be a niche fit for specific teams, while he stands to have a lot to prove despite consistent production over his first four seasons as a pro. Expect him to be signed to a “prove it” deal, likely for 1-3 years with very little guaranteed money.
6. Bilal Powell (Age: 27)
Powell has some of the more interesting upside out of any free agent running back in this class. He has some of the freshest legs despite being 27 years of age, while down the stretch last season, he proved to be even better than pro bowler Chris Ivory for the Jets. He’s one of the better receiving backs on this list, and showed glimpses of effectiveness between the tackles as the season wore on in New York. On this play against the Cowboys, while the hole may have been gaping, Powell showed his quick feet and excellent head faking ability to freeze safety J.J. Wilcox and get downhill in a hurry for the easy touchdown.
Likely being paid as a rotational back once again this season, expect Powell to continue shine on third downs and to be featured as much as he was down the stretch for the Jets in 2015.
7. Arian Foster (Age: 30)
When healthy, there is no question that Foster is capable of not only being at the top of this list, but amongst the top running backs in the entire NFL. The problem is that many GMs and football pundits alike fear that Foster may never be able to regain his health and that at 30 years of age his prime running back years may have passed. It’s tough to give readers an idea of what to expect from Foster in 2016, as he hasn’t been healthy for 16 games since 2012.
During his heyday, the superlatives that went along with his name, playing style, and production were endless. There wasn’t a better one-cut back in the game, he was feared as a receiver out of the backfield, while his goal line production was second to none. Expect a team to sign him to a one year “prove it” deal with virtually zero guaranteed money.
8. Ronnie Hillman (Age: 24)
Surprisingly Hillman is still only 24 years old, and seems to be getting better with each year he’s been in the league. In 2015, Hillman led the Super Bowl winning Broncos offense with 863 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, good enough for a 4.2 yards per carry average, behind an absolutely dreadful offensive line. The passing game didn’t do him any favors either, making it at times a one-man offense when C.J. Anderson was injured. This is not to say that he isn’t flawed, particularly with functional strength to speak of, but possessing breakaway speed and a low pad level, Hillman will be a nice bargain pickup for any team in need this season, especially when considering he is still only 24 years old. Below is a sense of his homerun ability that he can provide teams in the market for a change of pace running back
9. Christine Michael (Age: 25)
Michael is still a young, albeit well traveled, running back, who possesses plenty of natural talent to be successful in this league. He has virtually no wear and tear so far, considering he has yet to take a feature role in an NFL offense. These are his positives to NFL GM’s, while his lack of awareness above the shoulders might be a strong repellant. The reason he has yet to secure a lead role so far in his career isn’t due to lack of talent, but rather because he can’t seem to fully grasp diverse playbooks and complex NFL offensive concepts. He is a nice developmental guy to keep on the roster, as his natural talent as a rusher is in the top tier of this free agent class, while you would have to figure that at some point he has to pick up the game mentally, right? Even if he doesn’t, expect someone to take a chance on his upside, as his flashes are good enough to warrant him a contract this offseason.
10. Lance Dunbar (Age: 26)
Dunbar might very well be back with Dallas when all is said and done, as he emerged as one of the best PPR backs in the game this past season. Tony Romo fell in love with his ability out of the backfield as a pass catcher, while Romo’s subsequent failed backups frequently used Dunbar as a check-down safety blanket to pad their stats and protect their jobs. Unfortunately, before Dunbar’s momentum could really get going in 2015, he blew out his knee, ultimately ruining his chances of getting a nice contract during his upcoming free agency opportunity. If all heals up for him properly, Dunbar will make some team very happy on passing downs in 2016, as he proved to be an aware pass protector and good for seven catches per game when healthy last season.
Just Missed the Cut:
Khiry Robinson, Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower, James Starks, LeGarrette Blount.