Week 2 was a real kick in the ass for many of us. Whether you had someone on your season long team or daily lineup, you likely received a big fat “L” in Week 2. However, when one door closes another opens. Injuries to Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart open up the door for guys like Jerick McKinnon, Charles Sims and Cameron Artis-Payne. There is a lot of value to be had this week, so you’re going to have to give your lineup some extra attention in an effort to send out the best group possible this weekend.
Every Friday throughout the NFL regular season I will be sending you this lineup helper that I like to call: Tough Decisions. In this article I will breakdown players with similar value, ranking and projection heading into this coming week.
Let's take a look at the TOUGH DECISIONS for Week 3:
QUARTERBACKS
Marcus Mariota (vs. OAK) or Jameis Winston (vs. LA)
The Case for Mariota: Mariota walks into a dream matchup against an Oakland defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to date against opposing quarterbacks. Opposing signal callers are a whopping 54-for-76 for 808 yards and a 7:1 TD/INT ratio. Through two games, Oakland has allowed 13 completions of 20 or more yards and five of 40 or more yards. Tajae Sharpe, Delanie Walker and DeMarco Murray are going to be busy through the air and thanks to a solid matchup, Mariota is more than a quality option in Week 3.
The Case for Winston: Yes, Winston is coming off a horrendous outing, but a four-interception outing doesn’t kill his fantasy value for the entire season! The guy threw for four touchdowns in Week 1, mind you it was against the Falcons, but suddenly people are concerned? Why!? Arizona is an elite defense, but Winston has the potential of an elite quarterback. The team lost Doug Martin and even though Charles Sims is going to get a fair number of carries, it’s going to be the Jameis Winston show on Sunday. The Rams have been stingy against opposing quarterbacks, ranking in the bottom-third in terms of fantasy points allowed, but to be fair, they have only faced Blaine Gabbert and an injured Russell Wilson. Winston is a QB2 for this matchup.
The Verdict: Mariota. Oakland has been exploited through the air and I expect Mariota to be the next quarterback to complete the task.
RUNNING BACKS
Eddie Lacy (vs. DET) or Melvin Gordon (@IND)
The Case for Lacy: Lacy is averaging 4.26 yards per carry, which is fine, but he isn’t getting the necessary touches to be relevant. Lacy is entering the realm of touchdown dependency, but the fact of the matter is that he isn’t getting into the end zone this season. Those hoping for RB1 numbers from Lacy this season need to realize it’s going to be hard for him to do such a thing when he’s only averaging 13 touches per game. In his defense for this week, he is facing a Detroit defense that is allowing a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. This seems like a pretty darn good week for Lacy to find the end zone for the first time in 2016.
The Case for Gordon: Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen are done for the season, so with that in mind, Gordon is going to head the San Diego rushing attack. Also, he will likely get an extra target or two each week with Woodhead going down with a torn ACL. He has 41 touches through the first two games of the season, and he got a season-high 24 carries last week against Jacksonville. Gordon is also displaying a nice nose for the end zone, having scored twice against Kansas City and once more against Jacksonville. He’s going to get a chance to prove himself as an every-down workhorse and seeing how he has performed thus far, he’s thrusted himself into a low-end RB1 echelon. Since the start of last season, the Colts have allowed opposing running backs to score 15 times, which is third most in the league. Hard not to love Gordon this week.
The Verdict: Gordon. No-brainer. Cheeseburger Eddie will struggle again.
Theo Riddick (@GB) or Jeremy Langford (@DAL)
The Case for Riddick: Albeit a career scat back, it’s hard not to think that Riddick will receive the lion’s share of the carries against the Packers. Dwayne Washington will likely see some touches, but Riddick’s skills in the passing game will help keep him on the field regardless of how this game turns out. Green Bay has been really good against the run this season (1.8 YPC), but once again, Riddick’s role in the passing game will sustain his fantasy value, especially in PPR formats. Both Green Bay and Detroit should be able to put up points, so theoretically, Riddick will be involved early and often.
The Case for Langford: Langford and Riddick are close to each other in terms of scoring projection for the week, and while Langford has the better matchup on paper, I’m just not a fan. I am a known disbeliever in Langford and I was hoping the Bears would give Jordan Howard playing time right away. Howard looked good in a brief appearance last week and I’ve said it time and time again, but in a matter of time, Howard is going to be getting the most touches on a weekly basis for Chicago. As for now though, Langford is still the workhorse, but he hasn’t produced at all. He’s been extremely ineffective, and in standard formats, 12 of his 17 points have come from touchdowns. Dallas has been average against the run this season, but keep in mind that Langford is only an average running back.
The Verdict: Riddick. C’mon, were you expecting anything else? Everyone knows I don’t like Jeremy Langford.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Per @mgrpowell on Twitter…
Quincy Enunwa (@KC) or Golden Tate (@GB)
The Case for Enunwa: It’s crazy to think that Enunwa is running just about the same number of routes as Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Enunwa has hauled in 13 of his 14 targets and he’s been a reliable option through the first two weeks of the season. Marshall has been a little dinged up in practice this week and any indication of a restriction on him would help Enunwa immensely. The Kansas City defense has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season and given New York’s defensive struggles at times this season, both teams should have the ability to put up some points. The Jets are going to throw the ball a good bit, so Enunwa should continue to remain productive as a chain mover.
The Case for Tate: Tate continues to get plenty attention from quarterback Matt Stafford, but it just hasn’t come full swing yet. He’s managed just nine catches for 54 yards on the season, but he’s due to break out of this slump he’s mired in. The Green Bay defense is susceptible to the long ball, seeing as they have allowed nine passes of over 20 yards and two over 40 yards. Marvin Jones is the team’s top receiving option, but people shouldn’t be sleeping on Tate. The targets are there, and it’s only a matter of time until the train gets back on the tracks. The Lions rank in the top 10 in terms of passing play percentage (62.70) and in this matchup with Green Bay, I like Tate to see double-digit targets.
The Verdict: Tate. The Jets are nearly an even split in terms of pass and rush percentages, so Tate will have more opportunities to produce.
Per @theSneidMan990 on Twitter…
Travis Benjamin (@IND) or Stefon Diggs (@CAR)
The Case for Benjamin: The injury to Keenan Allen vaulted Benjamin to the team’s top receiving option. In his first game in said role, he caught six passes for 115 yards with two touchdowns. It was a great week for Benjamin, and he flashed that big play potential that we all love and adore from him. The Indianapolis defense has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so receivers have done well against them, right? Well, not so much. The Colts have allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing pass catchers. Indy has been decimated by running backs this season and opposing wide receivers have yet to find the end zone against this Indianapolis defense. However, Benjamin has a great opportunity to break that trend in Week 3. Vontae Davis is still only a limited participant in practice and is questionable for this week, while Darius Butler still isn’t practicing at all. As long as Davis isn’t playing, or is limited, I love this matchup for Benjamin.
The Case for Diggs: Minnesota, like San Diego, got hit by the injury bug recently. Adrian Peterson and Matt Kalil are both on the shelf, not to mention Teddy Bridgewater’s gruesome injury before the season. Despite Josh Norman leaving for Washington, the Panthers have been pretty stingy to opposing wide receivers, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. However, they did face Trevor Siemian in his first career start and Blaine Gabbert. In terms of this game, here is what I am thinking. Minnesota’s defense is pretty good, but so is that Cam Newton guy for Carolina. Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon will struggle to find room in the ground game, forcing Sam Bradford to sling the pigskin. When that happens, more often than not, it’s going to be Diggs and tight end Kyle Rudolph hauling in the passes. In terms of Minnesota receivers, Adam Thielen’s five targets were the closest to Diggs’ 11.
The Verdict: Benjamin. I’m torn on this decision, because it’s pretty close, but even if Davis were to play for Indy, Benjamin has the better chance of finding the end zone. I’ll attack the Colts’ defense over Carolina’s any day of the week.
TIGHT ENDS
Dennis Pitta (@JAX) or Kyle Rudolph (@CAR)
The Case for Pitta: Pitta was quiet in Week 1 against Buffalo, catching three passes for 39 yards, but he exploded in Week 2 for nine catches on 12 targets for 102 yards. Baltimore dug themselves out of an early deficit, so perhaps that’s why Pitta saw that many additional targets. That surely did help, but he is the team’s top tight end. Unfortunately, it’s only a matter of time until he gets injured again, but while he’s healthy, he is an excellent TE2. Baltimore isn’t exactly loaded with weapons, so Pitta is actually going to have a sizable role in the Baltimore aerial attack. Pitta goes up against a Jacksonville defense that is extremely susceptible to quality tight ends. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position last season and while they have been better this season, I wouldn’t call Richard Rogers, Jared Cook or a hobbling Antonio Gates the cream of the crop.
The Case for Rudolph: Sam Bradford is an improvement to Shaun Hill and we all know how much Bradford loves to throw to his tight ends. His 16 targets through the first two games are tied for third among all tight ends in the National Football League. He will continue to get plenty of work with Bradford and he will likely serve as the team’s second option in the passing game. Through two games, opposing tight ends have caught seven passes on 11 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown against this Carolina defense. Rudolph is a high-end TE2 for this matchup.
The Verdict: Pitta. I like Rudolph a lot this week, but Pitta has a better matchup and given the loss of Kalil, Rudolph may lose targets due to having to pass protect.
Want to know how your lineup question could be in next week’s edition? Tweet your question to @colbyrconway with #ToughDecisions and your twitter handle and question could be in next week’s article!