WE ARE BACK! Football season is back in swing and after a long hiatus, this Tough Lineup Decisions article is back on the map! It’s been quite some time since I wrote one of these, but it felt good to get back in the swing of things. Every Friday throughout the NFL regular season I will be sending you this lineup helper that I like to call: Tough Decisions. In this article I will breakdown players with similar value, ranking and projection heading into this coming week.
Let's take a look at the TOUGH LINEUP DECISIONS for Week 1:
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (@IND) or Eli Manning (@DAL)
The Case for Stafford: Stafford has a dream matchup in Week 1 against an ailing Indianapolis defense. Top corner Vontae Davis is expected to miss the game, and once that is confirmed, Stafford’s fantasy value increases a touch. When you look at his numbers last season, it was a rocky start for the right-handed slinger, but after the team’s bye, he turned it around. He put up at least 15 points in every game since the week off, making him worthy of QB1 status in the second half. This is game is going to be a shootout, giving Stafford a floor of around 20 points in this matchup.
The Case for Manning: Manning has weapons around him this season that he hasn’t had in a few years. Sterling Shepard and Odell Beckham Jr. are solid weapons that should have their way with the Dallas defense. However, Eli really struggled against Dallas last season, but it should be a much different story this season. The offense this season should move quicker and be more efficient, giving Manning QB1 status most weeks. You’re rolling with Manning in seasonal formats, no questions asked.
The Verdict: Stafford. I love the matchup with the injured Indy defense.
Running Backs
Doug Martin (@ATL) or LeSean McCoy (@BAL)
The Case for Martin: Martin may be known as the muscle hamster, but he might start getting called the Falcon Killer if he continues to produce against Atlanta. He averaged 89 yards from scrimmage against them last season, topping 22 touches in each of those contests. Martin loses some work to Charles Sims throughout the course of the game, but he’s one of the few backs in the league who still approach 20 carries week in and week out. Atlanta struggled against backs last season and things won’t be that much different in 2016. Expect to see a lot of Martin in the team’s season opener.
The Case for McCoy: Shady was battered and bruised last season, but if you look closely, he still put up decent numbers for an injured back. They weren’t where fantasy owners wanted the numbers to be, but it is what it is. He averaged almost 4.5 YPC over his last 12 games and he’s virtually uncontested for carries heading into the 2016 campaign. Karlos Williams scored nine touchdowns last season, so if everything works out—meaning Shady stays healthy—he has a great opportunity to pick up the majority of those vacant touchdowns. McCoy is a RB1 this season.
The Verdict: Martin. He should torch the Atlanta D for well over 100 total yards.
Christine Michael (vs MIA) or Jeremy Hill (@NYJ)
The Case for Michael: Michael impressed when given the lead role in two games last season and he carried that momentum into this preseason. His time in the spotlight may be short lived, because Thomas Rawls is expected to take over the majority of the touches when he is fully healthy. However, if Michael can impress here in the early going, he could potentially work into at least a time share with Rawls. For Week 1, Rawls is going to get a few carries, as is C.J. Prosise, but it’s going to be Michael who’s given every opportunity to lead the charge. Miami’s run defense isn’t spectacular, which is setting up Michael for a big time opening weekend.
The Case for Hill: Per normal, the only knock on Hill is the fact that he always has to deal with Giovani Bernard. However, in the preseason the team has shown the capacity to keep both guys involved in the offense. Against the Jags in the preseason, Hill racked up eight carries and one reception, totaling 49 yards. Hill will continue to be the goal line guy for the team, which is a huge boost to his fantasy value. In standard formats, you’re chasing touchdowns, of which Hill is no stranger. The Jets have a pretty stout defense, but volume alone should keep Hill relevant in this one.
The Verdict: Michael. He’s going to put his name on the map for good.
Wide Receivers
Donte Moncrief (vs DET) or Marvin Jones (@IND)
The Case for Moncrief: Many fantasy analysts out there made bold predictions about how Moncrief could end up being the team’s top scoring wide receiver this season. That is certainly possible. Hilton is the threat to stretch the field, but Moncrief is the guy who can work the short and intermediate routes for gunslinger Andrew Luck. He and Luck had a nice rapport before the latter went down with an injury. Detroit’s defense is far from exceptional, so Indianapolis is going to have ample opportunities to put points up on the board. Moncrief, much like his opponent Marvin Jones, is a top 20 option in Week 1.
The Case for Jones: As noted above with his quarterback Matthew Stafford, this game is going to be a shootout where damn near everyone could find the end zone at some point. Jones is in a quality position to succeed and even though Golden Tate is the team’s No. 1 receiver on paper, Jones could end up being the team’s top statistical receiver in 2016. Indianapolis will likely be without Vontae Davis, so Jones will be drawing the team’s No. 3 corner most likely. Expect Jones to have a field day and set the tone for his 2016 campaign.
The Verdict: Moncrief. I’ve been high on him for most of the preseason and he should be able to haul in 6-8 passes for right around 100 yards with one touchdown.
Will Fuller (vs CHI) or Allen Hurns (vs GB)
The Case for Fuller: Fuller had a nice little preseason, displaying great rapport with quarterback Brock Osweiler. He’s going to be the Houston receiver responsible for taking the top off opposing defenses, which we should see against a depleted Chicago secondary. Now, he was a limited participant in yesterday’s practice, but the Texans are hopeful that he’ll be a full go on Sunday in the season opener. He has a great opportunity in this matchup, but don’t play him until you have confirmation he is a full go for the contest.
The Case for Hurns: Hurns has developed into a quality receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is the clear No. 2 receiver behind Allen Robinson, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a productive receiver. He tallied at least 60 yards receiving OR a touchdown in 11 games last season. Quarterback Blake Bortles will continue to spread the ball around and in this matchup with Green Bay, he’ll likely be asked to throw the ball quite often. The Green Bay defense is pretty stout against the pass, but that doesn’t mean Hurns can’t get loose for a bomb or two.
The Verdict: Hurns. As much as I love Fuller, Hurns will have the better week between these two.
Tight Ends
Gary Barnidge (@PHI) or Martellus Bennett (@ARI)
The Case for Barnidge: Barnidge was a big bright spot in a rather dark 2015 season for the Cleveland Browns. He will be the team’s top tight end this season, but he will have to compete with other playmakers for some targets. However, quarterback Robert Griffin III has looked to Barnidge a good bit in the preseason and there is no reason that won’t continue into the regular season. The Philadelphia Eagles surrendered 36 passing touchdowns last season, which should play out well for the Cleveland tight end. This Philadelphia-Cleveland matchup is going to be a sneaky shootout, so Barnidge is locked in TE1 territory.
The Case for Bennett: Rob Gronkowski is dealing with an injury that may place him on a snap count, or even keep him off the field for the contest. It will be interesting to see how they use the two tight end sets here in the regular season. If Gronk is unable to go, Bennett’s fantasy value improves dramatically. Bennett is a quality pass catching tight end, but he isn’t going to see nearly the volume of work he saw during his time in Chicago. Bennett’s fantasy value this week is tied to Gronkowski’s playing capacity.
The Verdict: Barnidge. RG3 to Barnidge is going to be a lucrative connection this season.