Over the last half decade or so the NFC North has typically run off the unofficial mantra (very unofficial considering I’ve only thought it to myself before) of “Lions, and Packers, and Bears, oh my!” In 2015, however, the Vikings happened to be the team that turned some heads in the division – and the entire NFL on a meta spectrum – as they sported a stout defense, an improved offense, and came a mere chip-shot field goal away from defeating the back-to-back NFC champion Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. In a division of largely rebuild projects, the Vikes seem only a couple of pieces away from taking the division, and furthermore contending in the conference at large. Consider the draft a huge one for all teams involved in the NFC North, as they each should have a defined agenda on how they will improve headed into next season.
Chicago Bears
2015 Record: 6-10
2016 Draft Picks: 11, 41, 72, 106, 127, 150, 185, 206, 230,
With their switch to a 3-4 defense in 2015 going less smoothly than a pubescent teen’s pocked-up face, the Bears had some major holes to fill on that side of the ball entering the 2016 offseason. Arguably their biggest need was at the inside linebacker position, as Shea McClellin served as a turnstile while starting in 2015. Originally I believed that their best option with the 11th overall pick was to go with Alabama’s Reggie Ragland, All-American linebacker and 2015 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, but instead the Bears decided to address that position in free agency with the signing of not one but two quality starters in Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. This changes the Bears' plans drastically in the first round and furthermore the entire draft, as they will most definitely look to fill other voids on their roster going forward.
Instead with the 11th pick, expect the Bears to direct their attention to their next most glaring defensive need, as the five-technique position sorely needs to be upgraded. Enter Sheldon Rankins, a nimble, sturdy, and technically sound hybrid defensive lineman out of Louisville. He sports an excellent first step, gets his arms extended better than pretty much any other defensive lineman in the draft, and possesses a plethora of polished pass rushing moves that will help him get to the quarterback. On this play, Rankins shows what he does best, as he fully extends on the interior offensive lineman, strings out the designed run, and then when needed, ragdolls the blocker. He blows up the running play with ease, showcasing the damage he could inflict as a five-technique run stuffer at the next level.
Although still developing in this area, Rankins has displayed some huge potential as a pass rusher as well, as he has a good grasp of combo rushing moves and knows when to use them. Here, Rankins uses a classic slap and rip to gain the advantage over his blocker, as he gains a clear path to the quarterback.
With the Bears locking down one of the best defensive linemen that this draft has to offer, they will likely turn their attention to offensive tackle or cornerback with their subsequent two selections after 11. In play here would be tackles Germain Ifedi of Texas A&M, LeRaven Clark of Texas Tech, and Kyle Murphy of Stanford, while cornerback Kendall Fuller of Virginia Tech would have an opportunity to play alongside his brother in Chicago if drafted with No. 41 overall.
As the draft moves into the later rounds, don’t be surprised if the Bears plan on doubling up on any of the above listed positions. They could target Baylor’s monstrous Shawn Oakman to shore up the other five-technique position along the defensive line, while a late round corner such as James Bradberry of Samford would give them a nice rangy option to use in zone situations. A depth receiver is probably the best late round option for them in terms of need and ultimate value. A reclamation project such as Malcolm Mitchell of Georgia fits the bill in the fifth round or so, as injuries have dropped him down draft boards, while his former status as a five-star recruit still leaves him with immense potential. He’s a twitchy athlete with long arms, who with proper coaching and fortunate health, still possesses No. 1 receiver upside.
Detroit Lions
2015 Record: 7-9
2016 Draft Picks: 16, 46, 95, 111, 151, 169, 191, 202, 210, 236
The Lions finished dead last in rushing last season and while rookie Ameer Abdullah showed flashes, he was largely a disappointment. Sure, a better offensive line would have helped out his cause, but ultimately he proved that he will not be able to handle an every-down role in this league going forward. This leaves Detroit with two options in that they will likely have to choose between the best offensive tackle and best running back available at No. 16 overall. While most of the first-round caliber tackles will be gone by then, I still believe that Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliot will be available when they are on the clock. This may come as a surprise to many, but considering that Elliot will be by far the best player left on the board at that point and the fact that the Lions need all of the offensive talent they can get since the sudden retirement of Calvin Johnson, this pick makes plenty of sense here.
As for Elliot the football player, he is the best running back in the draft, bar none. While in the very small minority here, I believe that Elliot is an even better prospect than Todd Gurley was coming out of Georgia last season. Right off the bat when looking at his tape, most evidently clear is Elliot’s relentless motor. He runs with excellent pad level and always seems to be headed downhill with malice. Upon impact, Elliott always seems to deliver the blow. He always falls forward and will never be a liability in short-yardage situations. Considering all of his power and urgency as a runner, his vision is second to none in this class. Elliott practices patience, allowing the hole to fully develop instead of running into clutter. Once things open up, he explodes through the hole and makes it a track meet to the end zone.
At the second level, Elliott is feared. He wields a devastating stiff-arm and a high quality hop-cut when needed. Lastly on his long list of positive traits, Elliott is one of the most accomplished blockers in this class. Always willing to mix it up with edge defenders and linebackers, he almost never allows anyone to best him in protection. He seems to welcome the idea of even serving as a lead blocker on select plays, proving that his physicality and toughness should never be questioned. Obviously for Detroit, a team looking to reload their offensive firepower, drafting Elliot would be an excellent place to start, as there is almost nothing that he can’t do. The Ohio State star will instantly upgrade their last ranked rushing offense and will allow the Lions to control the clock much easier going forward.
On the other hand, if Elliot were off the board at 16, Detroit likely would be in high pursuit of someone like Jason Spriggs, an offensive tackle out of Indiana, or Taylor Decker of Ohio State, another offensive tackle. If they go tackle in round one, they would be wise to target a running back in round two with the 46th overall pick. There, Derrick Henry of Alabama is likely the best power back available, while Jordan Howard of Indiana would be a potential dark horse selection.
Other team needs for the Lions include depth at wide receiver, a center to compete with Travis Swanson, and versatility along the defensive line. All of these needs can be addressed with their third to seventh round selections, as the run on centers and second tier receivers will likely begin in the third round, while this draft is very deep at the defensive line spots.
Green Bay Packers
2015 Record: 10-6
2016 Draft Picks: 27, 57, 88, 125, 131, 137, 163, 200, 248
Somehow the Packers still managed to finish with 10 wins despite being ravished by injuries in 2015. The good overall record puts them in a tough spot considering they will now be drafting later in the rounds, while they still have plenty of holes to fill on their roster.
With the way that the big board appears to be sorting itself out, the Packers should enter the late April affair with a defined draft agenda. Considering the fact that this draft is lacking any depth at the 3-4 outside linebacker spot and the fact that that position just so happens to be the Packers biggest need, expect them to pounce at the best edge rusher available at No. 27 overall. According to my big board, the best available edge rusher happens to be Noah Spence of Eastern Kentucky (formerly of Ohio State), a player who many view as the best overall edge rusher in the entire class. He has well documented off the field issues, but since transferring to EKU after being expelled from the Big 10 conference, Spence seems to have really cleaned up his act.
He’s a classic edge bender with excellent in-game speed and twitch. While he lacks ideal physical traits and arm length, his film from the Senior Bowl, Eastern Kentucky, and his Ohio State days show elite quarterback attacking skills. He can push the pocket with the best of them, and his excellent burst off the snap allows him to blow by offensive tackles when he pleases. I’m not here to tell you that he’s the next Von Miller, but if he keeps his nose clean, Spence has the potential to become a special edge weapon at the next level. Here’s an example of his natural talent at bending the corner after exploding off the line of scrimmage.
With this type of quickness coming hot off of one side and the sheer dominating talent of Clay Matthews coming from the other, the Packers could once again sport one of the most fearsome pass rushing duo’s in the NFL.
With the edge now secured, the Packers would be wise to direct their attention to the interior defensive line in round two, especially after the sudden retirement of B.J. Raji this offseason. By my estimations, the best player and scheme fit for the Packers available at 57 will be Kenny Clark, nose tackle out of UCLA. While some consider him undersized for the position, Clark’s amateur wrestling background makes him nearly impossible to move in the trenches. He serves as one of the best run-stuffing talents in the draft, and will likely become one of the better ones in the NFL as well. Clark also boasts a powerful initial burst off the ball, so strong in fact that he can at times ragdoll interior offensive linemen. Here’s a perfect example, as on this play Clark jolts the center off the spot while stuffing the runner nearly all in the same motion.
Most draft pundits are not excited about his potential as a three-down player, as they feel like Clark’s physical traits will not translate into an NFL pass rush. On this play, however, Clark exemplifies a relentless motor, upper body strength, and leg drive that allow him to will his way to taking down the quarterback.
Even if half of this play translates to the NFL, Clark will command enough attention in passing situations to make him a three-down player.
To complete the Packers' front seven overhaul, Green Bay is likely to target an inside linebacker in the third round. While they hit a home run in last year’s draft with Jake Ryan, they still will need to select another one this season so that Clay Matthews can finally return to his natural OLB position in their 3-4 scheme. A logical selection here would be Dominique Alexander of Oklahoma, as he likely will slide down to the end of the third round due to size concerns for the inside linebacker position. Alexander is an ultra-athletic player who excels in coverage and is very instinctual in the run game. This skillset has been lacking on Green Bay defenses for quite some time now and will fit very well next to the rugged thumper in Jake Ryan.
As for the rest of the draft, the Packers are likely to use their final handful of selections on wide receiver depth, a tight end, more defensive line help, and maybe even a running back.
Minnesota Vikings
2015 Record: 11-5
2016 Draft Picks: 23, 54, 86, 121, 160, 180, 240, 244
As mentioned earlier, the Vikings came a shanked field goal away from making some noise in the NFC playoffs last season, so it is safe to assume that they are only a couple of pieces away from returning to the dance. Where they are likely to begin their quest for improvement is at the wide receiver position. With the 23rd overall pick, Corey Coleman of Baylor happens to be not only the best player available at the position, but also one of the best touchdown creators in the class – an area that the Vikings could certainly use some help in. He’s a smooth, speedy receiver, with an ability to run under a pass just as well as he is to create in the open field. While at Baylor in 2015, Coleman caught 74 passes, with an astounding 20 of them going for scores. A player who managed to get into the end zone on 27 percent of his touches is a player that any NFL team could use, but almost none more desperately than the Vikings. Here’s an example of what he can do.
With Coleman’s game-breaking talent stretching the field and doing things with the ball in his hands combined with Stefon Diggs’s ability to do work in the intermediate passing game, Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense will take one giant step forward entering 2016.
As for other draft needs, the Vikings are in the market for a weak side linebacker who will eventually take over for the aging Chad Greenway. Considering they don’t have too many other holes on their roster, they are likely to address this in the second round with the 56th overall pick, unless they just play the board with a best player available strategy. Assuming they were to use No. 56 on a 4-3 OLB, expect the Vikings to target either Su’a Cravens of USC or Deion Jones of LSU. Both players are considered strong safety/OLB hybrids, but they should be excellent fits in Minnesota due to their need for a weak side coverage backer. The better fit is likely Jones because as a noted special teams hero while at LSU, he will be able to contribute right away for the Vikings. He would likely sub in for Greenway on third downs, and would have some time to further develop his body before being relied upon every defensive down. Here’s an example of Jones’s fluidity in coverage and his athletic build that will almost definitely translate into today’s professional game.
If the Vikings could nail these first two picks just as laid out, they would be well on their way to making another playoff run.
As for their remaining picks, Minnesota would be best served searching for some offensive and defensive line depth and potentially another running back to compete with Jerrick McKinnon as the direct backup to Adrian Peterson.
*** Check back on Wednesday for my breakdown of the AFC North and each team’s draft needs. ***