2015 Running Back Workload: Week 5 Review

Published: Oct 13, 2015

Bernard vs. Hill: The Clear-Cut Commentary

I think it is fair to say that most of us, as fantasy owners, value game-by-game consistency over individual breakout potential. In the ever-evolving Giovani Bernard vs. Jeremy Hill narrative, the discussion is following a natural progression.

Originally, entering the season, the Bengals backfield situation appeared clear in that Hill was the feature guy coming off of an impressive 2014, while Bernard would play the complimentary role as a spell/change-of-pace/third-down back. A few weeks and a few Hill fumbles later, the discussion became muddled, hazy and ultimately unclear, frustrating fantasy owners everywhere. Still, both backs were posting some solid numbers during the mid-weeks of this short season. Hill had a few huge games, posting a two-touchdown performance in Week 1 and a three-touchdown outing in Week 4. Bernard, on the other hand, has featured a rather balanced stat line, consistently reaching 10-12 fantasy points in standard leagues, and even more in PPR formats.

Head coach Marvin Lewis – like us fantasy owners – has slowly but surely shown his preference for consistency over wild card antics. Fumbling has certainly played a role in Coach Lewis’ decision, but ultimately he sees Bernard’s game as one he can trust more than Hill’s. Since entering the season as the unquestioned starter, Hill has seen his usage go from a season-high of 19 carries in Week 1, progressively down to a low of eight in Week 5. Furthermore, his snap percentage share hit rock bottom in Week 5 against the Seahawks, as he only saw 22 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, in comparison to Bernard's 78 percent.

This may already sound ominous enough for Hill owners, but what makes it worse, and something to actually give merit to, is that this is happening to Hill while the Bengals are undefeated. The Bengals are getting better and winning ball games, while Hill’s role diminishes by the day. Bernard seemingly keeps getting more and more touches each week, while his snap percentage share is growing meteorically. At this point, consider Bernard the “lead guy” in Cincinnati, while Hill has been reduced to a change-of-pace/red zone threat.

On a lighter note, it’s not all gloom and doom for Hill owners. They still have the potential for a DeSean Jackson-type fantasy explosion from him on any given week, because he is that good around the goal line. Unfortunately, that is not what fantasy owners bargained for when they selected Hill with a top pick this draft season – though things could be a lot worse… they could have drafted C.J. Anderson.

Cardinals Backfield Destroys Detroit

The Lions – with their pride on the line – sported a muzzle in a put up or shut up game at home against Arizona on Sunday, as they allowed the Cardinals to run buck wild on them in the Motor City. Arizona had three backs post double-digit fantasy outings on Sunday, asserting their offensive dominance over a weak Detroit ball club. The question now that must be asked in Arizona is, how will the feast be divvied up going forward? Now that they have conceivably three capable backs – all with unique skill-sets – will coach Bruce Arians continue to ride the hot hand in the veteran Chris Johnson, or will he allow the preseason starter – Andre Ellington – to nudge his way back into an at least equal timeshare split? Furthermore, how does rookie David Johnson fit into the mix?

In what can be considered one of the most surprising developments so far this season, Chris Johnson – yes that same Chris Johnson who was shot in a drive-by during the offseason – is the NFL’s second-leading rusher through Week 5. He’s got 405 rushing yards, good enough for 5.1 yards per carry, which is second amongst top-15 qualified rushers. Simply put, the guy has been effective. During the last four weeks, he has paced this Arizona offense and has taken an incredible amount of pressure off of the offensive line and quarterback Carson Palmer.

Knowing all of this, it would be inconceivable for Coach Arians to lessen Johnson’s workload right? Well it’s not that simple. With Ellington back healthy now, Arians has a chance to reincorporate his preseason starter back into the offensive game plan. On Sunday, Ellington only had three carries, however one of them was broken for a long 63-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, which basically further rubbed the Lions proverbial faces in the dirt. Most importantly, this run proved that Ellington’s health is back up to standard. With Ellington back in form, it would behoove Coach Arians to get the talented runner some more touches, if for no other reason than to give Chris Johnson’s veteran legs a rest. Long story short here: Despite Johnson’s incredible early season success, don’t count out Ellington as a fantasy contributor just yet.

As for the other man in the Arizona backfield, rookie David Johnson seems to have settled in nicely as the Cardinals' goal line guy, but it still appears as though his skills are being underutilized. Coming out of college – and even already in flashes in his brief NFL career – David Johnson was known as an electric playmaker, and most importantly as an effective route runner and pass catcher out of either the backfield or the slot. In Arizona so far, through five weeks, he has only caught nine passes on 17 targets, and has rarely been featured in situations where the Cardinals have the ball outside of the red zone. Now, with Ellington coming back, it looks like that reality may remain or even worsen, potentially lowering his preseason expectations of plus-PPR potential. The silver lining here – if there is one – is that Johnson appears to be the go-to guy around the goal line, evidenced by his two short scores on Sunday afternoon against the Lions. Although the expectations have changed for the rookie, he still holds some value in a surprisingly loaded Arizona backfield.

The Egg Has Hatched: Are the Eagles Ready to Fly?

Last week I challenged DeMarco Murray and the Eagles' struggling rushing attack headed into Week 5 against a less-than-stellar New Orleans rush defense and they answered the call. Murray, the offensive line, the play calling, and the rest of the backfield all improved on Sunday afternoon, as the Eagles just seemed to be better than the Saints at the point of attack. For the first time all season, the Eagles won the time of possession battle, controlling the pace of the game primarily on the ground. Overall, Philly totaled 189 rushing yards, directly following coach Chip Kelly’s script, en route to a rout of the Saints by the score of 39-17.

Most importantly here, Murray owners can briefly exhale, as he carried the ball 20 times for 83 yards and a touchdown, while he hauled in seven catches on eight targets for 37 yards. He got going in the right direction upon the snap of the ball (for the most part) and although his game speed still didn’t seem to be what it was last season, his patience as a runner was, which should be enough to get him by for the rest of the season as an adequate fantasy running back.

Ryan Mathews also had himself a fine week, running for only 10 less yards than Murray on Sunday, while receiving 12 fewer carries. He also scored a touchdown on the ground and caught all three of his targets from Sam Bradford, totaling 23 receiving yards. It still appears clear that Kelly is going to continue to let Murray lead the Eagles' backfield, but if Mathews continues to post high production numbers on limited touches, he will have no choice but to get him further involved.

Darren Sproles also did his thing against the Saints, but as the weeks go on, it is becoming more and more evident the Philly backfield is a two-man show. With the production of both Mathews and Murray improving, Sproles owners can now officially panic, as there just doesn’t seem to be enough footballs to go around in the “City of Brotherly Love."

Hopefully Kelly and the Eagles have stopped their partying by now after a week of gashing the Saints on the ground, as Week 6 will be no walk in the park. The Eagles host the Giants and their No. 4-ranked rush defense next Monday night, facing a similar challenge to what they have seen several times already this year, as they have gone up against some of the league’s toughest run defenses through the first five weeks of this season. Hopefully for the Eagles' sake, their Week 5 execution against a porous New Orleans defense will be enough to have jump-started their ground game because if not, they will be facing a long day against the G-Men… Consider this another issued challenge from me to Philly -- prove to the league the identity that you claim to have. Run the ball with authority.

PPR Bonus

This week’s edition of “PPR Bonus” features Theo Riddick of the Detroit Lions, who has emerged this season as Matthew Stafford’s favorite check down option. On the season, Riddick has averaged 12.76 points per game in PPR formats, totaling 30 receptions for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, a game in which the Lions got beaten up pretty good by the Cardinals, Riddick shined through the crap – for lack of a better term.

He hauled in 10 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown, all the while receiving passes from two different quarterbacks after Stafford was benched mid-way through the third quarter. The good news here for Riddick is that he proved his value to the team as more than just a favorite pet of Stafford. He provides an important service to a struggling Lions offense, but positively seems to be matchup-proof. Going forward he should continue to see his targets each week, despite who’s under center and despite whom the Lions are facing.