2015 Running Back Workload
A Fantasy Season in Review: (Awards Edition)
As the NFL regular season winds down and ultimately ends in two weeks, most fantasy football leagues are actually coming to a close after Week 16 in the league’s penultimate week on the schedule. Considering most fantasy leagues are headed into their championship matchups this week, I find it most appropriate to dish out some backfield awards, properly putting a cherry on top of this non-DFS fantasy football season. So, without further ado…
Eric Dickerson Award: (Rookie Rusher of the year)
It is largely accepted that in 1983, Eric Dickerson had the single greatest rookie season of any running back ever. Straight out of Southern Methodist University, Dickerson entered the NFL as a Los Angeles Ram, toting the rock 390 times for 1,808 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, while also catching 51 passes for 404 yards and two more touchdowns. Knowing this makes it pretty understandable why the award is named after Dickerson. Now, for your 2015 rookie backs who best represent what Dickerson did in 1983…
Finalists:
Your frontrunner folks – Todd Gurley – a runner who loves to lead the pack and has been doing it ever since college. He put together a masterful rookie campaign in 2015, sitting currently at third in the league in rushing yards to go along with nine touchdowns, while boasting a near 5.0 yards per carry average. Despite his dominance on the field, his most impressive feat is that he was able to overcome a 2014 torn ACL that he needed only a few months to recover from. One of the most talented running backs to come out of college since maybe Adrian Peterson, this award is Gurley’s to lose.
Johnson – a rookie back out of little-known Northern Iowa – posts the biggest threat to Gurley in terms of the Eric Dickerson Award, due to his sizzling finish to the 2015 fantasy season. Outside of his strong finish, Johnson in his limited early-season touches produced surprisingly consistently despite playing out of a crowded backfield. In all, he totaled 12 touchdowns – an impressive number for a rookie – featuring seven on the ground, four through the air, and one early-season kick return for a touchdown that established him as a legitimate scoring threat as an NFL player. Expect him to not only be featured here, but also as a dark horse fantasy running back MVP candidate.
Rawls would likely have had a better chance here had he not gotten injured a couple of weeks ago, as he was doing yeoman’s in place of Marshawn Lynch. His big highlight was his 30-carry, 209-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 11 against San Francisco, however, across the season, he sprinkled in another three 100-plus yard performances in relief of the ailing Lynch. A dark horse candidate for sure here, but something needs to be said about the bright future of Thomas Rawls.
Yeldon is on the outside looking in here, but flying under the radar for most of 2015, he did a very good job for a suddenly dangerous Jacksonville offense. Currently he sits at 740 rushing yards, with a legitimate chance at 1,000 while he has also gotten the job done as a PPR threat with 36 catches and 279 yards. Likely not his award to win, but a very good start to a career nonetheless.
Winner:
Despite a strong late-season push from David Johnson, who even will go on to get some MVP consideration, Gurley was just too good all season long. He did a great job adding touchdowns to games in which he wasn’t getting it done in terms of rushing yards, proving to have a key veteran trait will allow him to remain a consistent fantasy player going forward in his career. All of these rookies listed should go on to have great NFL careers, but in terms of 2015, Gurley was the best of the bunch.
The Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been” Trophy
No single football player was expected to do more with his football career than Bo Jackson was. He is considered by many to be the most talented athlete of all-time, but injuries got the best of him. This award is presented to players who came into the season with Bo-like expectations or potential, yet for various reasons things just didn’t work out. The nominees…
Finalists:
Le’Veon Bell
Although there was no “consensus” No. 1 overall fantasy player this season, Bell checked out as the top option after all draft positions were calculated into an ADP (average draft position). Considering this and his incredible production when healthy, it’s tough not to imagine what could have been had Bell not been suspended to start the season and had not gotten injured after only six games of action in 2015. He seemingly is the lead dog for this award, although he is taking on some stiff competition…
Prior to his debilitating season-ending injury, Charles was the top fantasy back in football. His legs looked incredibly fresh, he was doing it in all facets of the running back craft (rushing and receiving), and he was the only show in town in terms of being the lone offensive weapon on a then-struggling Kansas City Chiefs team. Many who took Charles with the first overall pick (as did yours truly) faced an unclimbable mountain after he went down with the torn ACL and subsequently had their fantasy seasons go into the toilet after his midseason injury. Oh, what could have been had the electrifying back not gone down? Maybe I would be hoisting a league championship trophy after this weekend.
I’m beginning to think that I’m going to have to rename this trophy the Arian Foster Award, as seemingly every year we expect Foster to return to his years of dominance past, but unfortunately never end up seeing due to injury. In 2015, Foster never really got his season underway, but when healthy, his numbers indicate that he is an elite running back. Fantasy owners can only wonder what could have been had Foster been healthy this season.
Hyde started off 2015 shot out of a cannon, rushing for 168 yards and two touchdowns on 26 rushing attempts against a good Minnesota Vikings defense. The wonder of possibilities obviously enter with Hyde in his mid-season season-ending injury, but really people were asking “what could have been?” with him earlier on than that. After that incredible start to the season, Hyde’s game really fell off outside of a solid performance against a bad Giants defense in Week 5. Had the play calling and quarterback play been better in San Francisco this season, maybe Hyde would have finished as a top fantasy running back in 2015. One thing that is for sure, though, is that we know he has the potential and talent to do so, so assuming circumstances had been better, imagine what could have been.
Winner:
In one of the closer races of this awards circuit, Charles gets the edge over Bell for the Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been” Trophy. When healthy, he was the best scoring back in the league and appeared to be well on his way to the Emmitt Smith award. He also didn’t miss the first two games due to suspension like Bell did, allowing his “What could have been?” to span a longer period of time. Lastly, Charles was doing it in an offense where he not only was the No. 1 runner, but also the No. 1 receiving option as well, whereas Bell could have been lost in the shuffle in games when Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and the Steelers' passing game went off. Poor Jamaal Charles… Oh what could have been.
Adrian Peterson Award: (Comeback Back of the year)
Coming off of a torn ACL that occurred late in the 2011 season, the then 27-year-old Peterson entered Week 1 of the 2012 season with plenty of question marks surrounding his potential production going forward. By season’s end, he finished as the league MVP coming only nine yards short of the single-season rushing record set by the aforementioned Eric Dickerson. Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and mind-boggling 6.0 yards per carry set his 2012 far apart from anyone else in terms of greatest comeback season of all-time by an NFL running back. The nominees for the award bearing his namesake in 2015 list as follows…
Finalists:
After an unbelievable rookie season in 2012, Martin suffered a series of injuries and most importantly a broken confidence. With a new offensive coordinator and phenom rookie quarterback in town for the 2015 season, Martin rediscovered himself, finishing the fantasy season as the third ranked running back and only second to Adrian Peterson in rushing yards with 1,305. He also led all qualified runners with a 5.1 yards per carry average, properly placing him in strong contention for the Adrian Peterson Award.
McFadden entered 2015 with a myriad of question marks, and this time it was not only about his history of inconsistent health, but it was whether or not he would see enough carries in a then-crowded Dallas backfield. Originally third on the depth chart, McFadden ascended to the lead dog for the Cowboys after an injury to Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle losing his mind, and the failed Christine Michael experiment. After all of these things worked in his favor, McFadden has quietly been a bright spot in an otherwise depressing Dallas Cowboys offense. In nine starting workloads since Week 7, McFadden has eclipsed 100 yards rushing five times, and has done it on a very nice yard per carry average. Sure, he is helped by an elite offensive line and still oftentimes fails to run with patience and anticipation, but that doesn’t matter in fantasy leagues. Considering how good his numbers have been as a runner and a pass catcher in the second half of this season, McFadden is certainly worthy of this nomination.
I flirted with disqualifying Peterson for a number of reasons, one being that the award already bears his name, and another because of the uncomfortable reason as to why he didn’t play last season, but in hopes to be inclusive rather than exclusive, AP makes the cut. The real reason Peterson became a nominee, though, is because he is the clear frontrunner for his own award. Once again AP proved to the football world that he is a freak of nature and should never be counted out. After taking an entire year off due to a domestic violence issue, while also coming off a down year in 2013, AP has come back with a vengeance in 2015, again leading the league in rushing, while on a good pace for his third career 1,500 yard season. Most impressive is that he is operating out of an offense where he is the only real threat, yet teams are still struggling to stop him. Domestic issues aside, what Peterson has done this season has to be recognized.
Coming out of Memphis in 2006, Williams was the NCAA D1 all-time leader in all-purpose yards. He was a first round pick by the Carolina Panthers and came into the league with high expectations. His career started off very well in a time split with Jonathan Stewart, featuring his peak season in 2008, where he rushed for 1,515 yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry. Since then, though, most of the NFL world had largely forgotten about Williams, as he only rushed for over 1,000 yards once in the five years that followed 2008. After leaving Carolina this offseason and joining Pittsburgh, no one thought much of Williams, especially because he would be sitting behind Le’Veon Bell – one of the best backs in the league. After an injury and suspension riddled season by Bell, Williams has stepped up in a huge way for this Steelers offense. He seems well on pace for a 1,000-plus yard season, despite only starting in only half of the games on the schedule. Hats off to Williams, his incredible handcuff value, and his well rounded 2015 campaign.
Winner:
AP comes away with the award of his namesake here, and for good reason, as he is well on his way to leading the league in rushing yards and has a good chance to lead in touchdowns as well. He has shown no signs of slowing down and fortunately for next year’s field of nominees, he won’t be up for the award again.
The Herschel Walker Bronze Crutch: (Backfield Bust of the year)
For all of his imposing physical features and outstanding stats as a college and USFL professional player, Walker never seemed to live up to the billing as an NFL player. Sure, he had some solid years, but in his 13 NFL seasons, Walker only rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns twice. Considering the hype train that consistently surrounds Walker despite his lack of NFL production, I would consider the “Bust” award a proper fit for his namesake. Unfortunately this season there were too many to choose from in order to fit all of the nominees, but to the best of my judgment I dwindled down the underperformers. In what was disappointingly the most difficult category to select a winner (loser?) here are the nominees…
Finalists:
Anderson burst onto the scene in the second half of last season, finishing the final eight weeks with 767 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, featuring two 150-plus yard rushing performances and two three-touchdown games. Headed into 2015, everyone and their mother was clinging onto that second half production, expecting him to finish the season as one of the game’s best fantasy backs. Add in his terrific second half with the fact that he would be operating out of a Gary Kubiak-led, run-heavy offense; Anderson as a first round fantasy pick seemed to be a home run. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case and after a few injuries and lack of production, Anderson ultimately ended up in a sluggish timeshare-split with Ronnie Hillman, making him one of the worst ADP value picks of this NFL season. Needless to say, Hillman makes a strong case for the Bronze Crutch here.
With Todd Gurley coming off a season-ending ACL tear in his final year of college, the rookie running back with the highest expectations coming into 2015 was Melvin Gordon out of Wisconsin. Many had high hopes that Gordon would come into San Diego and take the Chargers' already high-powered offense to the next level. In what can be described in no other way than “Bust,” Gordon only rushed for 641 yards and zero touchdowns while starting nearly every game for the Chargers. While I personally was one of the few that didn’t see Gordon’s game translating very well into the NFL, the overwhelming majority believed that he would take the league by storm. With an ADP of 48th overall, Gordon didn’t even finish as the 48th best running back in the league this season. To top it all off, Gordon finished his rookie season on the IR, proving to be proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back… Gordon was a flat-out bust.
There are only so many chances that “Fat” Eddie Lacy can get, as week in and week out he seemed to bring a different level of effort to the Packers' offense. My first worry with him came in the first week of the season when I was watching the Packers and after a first quick glance, my brother did a double take and in a startled, aloud thought wondered, “Did Eddie Lacy eat Jordy Nelson?”
Lacy entered 2015 looking at least 30 pounds overweight and it showed on the field. Sure, he had a few moments of his slimmer self during the season, but outside of a handful of weeks, Lacy looked lethargic. He is a talented back with surprisingly light feet and quickness for his size, but adding the extra weight in the offseason really ruined his chances for 2015. What a bust he has been for fantasy owners this season.
It’s tough to criticize Beast Mode too much for his struggles this season, as he appeared to be banged up all year long. Having said this, his lofty ADP of 7.1 cross-referenced with his horrific 417 rushing yards and three touchdowns, makes him one of the poster children for bona fide fantasy busts. I’m not going to come too hard down on Lynch here, though, because fantasy owners got themselves into this situation due to their own negligence. Last season, although just as good as his previous four terrific seasons in Seattle, there was plenty of talk coming from Lynch and his people about a possible retirement. After not getting the final carry on the goal line in last season’s Super Bowl, combined with his retirement talk and his genuine disdain for the media and limelight, Lynch just didn’t seem fully committed to 2015. Fantasy owners, like me, should have steered clear of Beast Mode.
Last year’s Emmitt Smith award winner (Fantasy RB MVP), DeMarco Murray couldn’t have fallen any harder from grace in 2015 as he now sits fourth on the Eagles running back depth chart. In 2014, Murray totaled a Cowboys record 1,845 rushing yards, to go along with 13 rushing touchdowns, while compiling an NFL record eight straight 100-yard rushing performances to open the season. Simply put, Murray was fantasy gold in 2014, leading many owners to their respective fantasy championships. Sure everyone anticipated a slight drop off in 2015 for him due to his intense 390-plus carry workload and because of the fact that he would be leaving the best offensive line in football behind him in Dallas, but to slide all the way down to fourth on his new team’s depth chart is inexcusable. Murray is mainly the lead dog for this shameful prize because he is one of the few backs on the list that has legitimately struggled through and through, and hasn’t been held back by multiple nagging ailments this season. Reportedly a nice guy, it’s unfortunate that we must hate on Murray, but he just wasn’t a fit in Chip Kelly’s east and west hurry up offense this season.
The wild card on this list is long forgotten Joseph Randle, who entering the season, was expected to do big things for this Dallas Cowboys offense. Coming off a 2014 where he led all of football with 6.7 yards per carry, expectations were high for him in his opportunity to fill the massive shoes left by reigning Offensive Player of the Year – DeMarco Murray. Fast-forward just six weeks into the season and Randle was off the team, being cited for accounts of domestic violence and even some reports of schizophrenia and other forms of mental illness. The opportunities were endless and the sky was the limit for Randle running behind the unquestioned best run-blocking offensive line in football. Unfortunately, he allowed his demons to get in the way. What a shame, what a waste of talent, and what a waste of a fantasy draft pick…
Winner:
This was really a tough choice here because there were so many disappointing running backs in 2015. Murray gets the unfortunate nod for the Herschel Walker Bronze Crutch Award because of a combination of reasons. Although there were many other worthy candidates, Murray finished the season as the only nominee that was relatively healthy for most of the year, was given every opportunity to succeed but just didn’t fit, and had a very high ADP. This doesn’t spell the end of his career, but this season is definitely one that fantasy owners will never forget. Hopefully for Murray’s sake, he gets out of Philly and finds his way back into Dallas with an offensive philosophy that he knows he can thrive in and behind a line that he knows will properly block for him.
Larry Centers Trophy: (PPR Performer of the year)
Often gone unrecognized, no running back was more impactful in the passing game or had their production more singularly tied to receiving the football than Larry Centers. Lining up as a fullback for the Cardinals, Bills, Redskins, and Patriots throughout his 14-year career, Centers rarely received many carries. Instead he made his money as a PPR monster, averaging nearly 70 catches per year over his 12 seasons as a starting fullback. Each year many try to duplicate what Centers did throughout his career, some of who have succeeded including Matt Forte, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Reggie Bush just to name a few, but forever this award will remain named after Centers – a man whose sole reason for existence was getting open out of the backfield. Your 2015 nominees for the Larry Centers PPR Performer of the Year Award…
Finalists:
For all of the impressive work that Freeman has done this season as a runner, featuring double-digit touchdowns and an easy pace for 1,000-plus yards, Freeman has been almost equally as impressive out of the backfield catching passes. He currently ranks second amongst qualified running backs in receptions (68), third in receiving yards (543), and has even added two more touchdowns to his impressive 2015 campaign. Freeman’s production isn’t directly tied to his pass catching abilities like Larry Center’s was, but his blue-collar work ethic is what makes him a fine candidate for the award.
A nice little cameo for the rookie out of Miami, as he created a nice niche for himself in this otherwise disappointing Cleveland offense. Despite not seeing a majority of the snaps out of the backfield, Johnson proved to be an effective check down option for whoever was playing quarterback for the Browns this season. He finished the fantasy season with 54 catches, 485 yards, and two touchdowns, remaining an effective flex play for fantasy owners seemingly on a weekly basis. His most impressive trait that separates him from the other nominees is his work out of the slot, where he managed to hold his own on intermediate routes and even on some wheel patterns that saw him find the end zone. Expect him to keep getting better and better going forward.
First in receptions (69), second in yards (605), third in touchdowns (3), and third in targets (86) amongst qualified fantasy running backs, Theo Riddick had an unbelievable 2015 PPR campaign. He underratedly became the Lions' most reliable back this season, and proved to be a pretty consistent 10-plus points in PPR formats each week. Not many have a stronger case for the Larry Centers Trophy, especially because of the other nominees, Riddick most closely resembles Centers in terms of production. Also like Centers, Riddick’s production is directly tied to his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, making him a great representative to carry on the legacy of the prestigious award.
The journeyman tailback was expected to be a PPR machine in 2015, just as he always has been throughout his career. Having said this, that doesn’t rule him out of contention for the award just because we expected excellence. Woodhead is a walking example of what the Larry Centers Trophy represents. Not the prototype for an NFL player, Woodhead still finds a way to make himself an effective player through his relentless work as a receiver out of the backfield. He ranks in the top three in almost every relevant running back receiving category, but where he might win this award is in his late-season effectiveness and his nearly double touchdown production over the next closest qualified running back (6). Although a tight race, this looks like Woodhead’s award to lose.
Winner:
Late season production matters and what separated Woodhead from the rest was his off the charts performance in the fantasy semi-finals just last week. After catching three touchdowns in the game that mattered most to fantasy owners, he in turn made himself the most valuable PPR running back. Not to put aside the rest of his impressive production for all of 2015, but his clutch performance late is what gave him the edge over the rest.
Emmitt Smith Golden Football: (MVP)
There may be contention on who the greatest running back ever is, but in terms of a fantasy award, the numbers never lie. Emmitt Smith is the all-time leader in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and in his time, was widely regarded as a top pass-catching back. When really boiled down, it’s tough to find a better example of a consistent fantasy MVP than Smith. Here are the best that 2015 had to offer in terms best overall running back…
Finalists:
Freeman looked like a lock for this award after the first eight weeks of the 2015 season, as he was far and away the best fantasy player through the first couple of months. During a five-game span (Weeks 2-6) Freeman tallied nine rushing touchdowns (one receiving), 487 rushing yards, and 29 receptions, giving him an almost insurmountable lead for the Emmitt Smith Award. He fell off hard in the seven weeks following, partly due to injury and partly due to a complete and utter team meltdown from the Falcons as a whole, leaving many to believe that this award belongs to another NFL runner. We shall see…
Up until a few weeks ago, putting Johnson’s name on this list would have been ridiculous, but after finishing this fantasy season as the No. 9 running back in standard scoring leagues and even higher in PPR formats after starting only the last three games, it would be hard not to give him a nod. Another notch on his potential fantasy MVP campaign is that of all leagues playing their fantasy championships in Week 16, Johnson is on 39 percent of the rosters represented in those title games – higher than any other back. What an unbelievable finish for the rookie runner.
Coming into 2015, no one really knew what to expect from Martin, who seemingly had lost all ability to find an open hole in the years following his breakout rookie season in 2012. He undoubtedly struggled for the first three weeks of this season, likely attempting to get his game legs back under him after getting injured for the year early on in 2014 season. Ironically, he flipped the switch in Week 4 against a stout Carolina Panthers defense, rushing 20 times for 106 yards and a touchdown, while adding five catches for another 37 yards. From that point on, Martin never looked back, adding season highlights in the following week with three touchdowns against the Jaguars and by rushing for an astounding 235 yards against the Eagles in Week 11. He finished on a very consistent pace of production, closing out his final six games with 120 rushing yards per contest. Your No. 3 overall fantasy running back in ESPN standard formats is Doug Martin and he’s hoping to be the first ever recipient of the Emmitt Smith Award.
Seemingly always in this conversation, AP did it once again, finishing as a top running back, when again the doubters were stacked against him. This time some were weary about his ever-advancing age, while worrying about his potential gridiron rust after missing an entire season due to suspension. Serving as the only real threat in his Minnesota offense, Peterson – in typical Peterson fashion – silenced the haters, compiling 1,314 rushing yards – good enough for the league lead – and nine touchdowns, coming in second in overall fantasy points for running backs in ESPN standard leagues. Consider 2015 another fine season in the illustrious, future Hall of Fame career of one Adrian Peterson.
Along with Johnson, Williams is the other outsider on this list, but deserves special recognition for his accomplishments in 2015. Entering the season, Williams was an afterthought, considered an irrelevant backup to the every down, consensus, first overall fantasy selection – LeVeon Bell. Well, wouldn’t you know it, Bell was suspended for the first two games and then after only playing in six other games, ended up with a season-ending injury, thus making Williams a serious option in all fantasy formats. In his sporadic playing time, Williams remained consistent, to the point that after all was said and done; he was the sixth best scoring running back in ESPN standard leagues. Outside of the numbers, Williams’ on the field game looked as strong as anyone’s, oftentimes getting better as the games got later, while showing some of the most polished vision and footwork out of any back in the NFL this season. Likely an underdog; lets hear it for DeAngelo Williams and his renaissance 2015 campaign..jpg)
Winner:
Despite the strong cases made by the other nominees, Freeman just did too much early on for him not to come away with the award. He led all backs in scoring in ESPN standard leagues, and it wasn’t really even close, as the person with the second most points – Adrian Peterson – was still a full 16 points behind Freeman (204-188). His work as a top five PPR threat separated him even more on this list, as he out caught all of the other candidates on this list as well. It may not be the easiest pill to swallow, as Freeman really fell off towards the end, but consider him a runner in a race that got off to a really fast start. Sure others might have entered his line of sight towards the middle and the end of the race, but his incredible start allowed him to still win the race at the end.