Bears:
Since his rookie year in 2008, for the Bears, this discussion has typically begun and ended with Matt Forte, and while he still figures to finish in the top five in running back usage again in 2015, he at least now has some competition. In this spring’s NFL draft, the Bears decided to select Michigan State running back, Jeremy Langford in the fourth round with the 106th overall pick.
Langford is your prototypical scat-back, who can be effective with his speed and light-footed running style through the hole on early downs, while properly picking up blitzes and threatening defenses as a receiver on passing downs. It is unclear if he can be an every-down guy in this league due to his lack of natural power as a runner and history of failing to gain many yards after contact, but he almost certainly can be an effective handcuff for Forte this season, and will likely learn a lot from him going forward.
Still consider Forte an elite running back option, but also don’t expect him to replicate his last season NFL running back record of 102 catches, now that he has some backfield help in 2015.
Buccaneers:
After the 2012 season, it looked like the Buccaneers running back narrative would be pretty easy to sum up for years to come considering that Doug Martin rushed for 1,454 yards, tallied 472 receiving yards, and recorded 12 total touchdowns as a rookie that year. But as we know all too well, life in the NFL is never easy to predict, and thus Martin hasn’t been healthy since.
In both 2013 and 2014, the Buccaneers running back situation was a complete mess, featuring a stable of guys who underwhelmed when carrying the rock. A lot of that can be attributed to the Bucs shoddy offensive line, but still, no one ever even came close to stepping up for fantasy owners.
This season, word is that Doug Martin is finally healthy once again, and his preseason film tells a similar story, so fantasy owners are best suited to seek him out over the other guys on the roster. In terms of legitimate handcuff options, it is tough to tell, but if preseason numbers are any indication, Mike James is the likely second string candidate on the depth chart, as he tallied more carries than any other Buccaneers back in the preseason.
Cardinals:
The Cardinals running back situation is a bit tricky this season, as they are loaded with talent, yet at times can provide head-scratchingly low production.
Starter Andre Ellington is one of the most versatile backs in the game today in that he is fast, agile, can catch the ball out of the backfield, and can handle the ball over 20 times per game. He has had a history of injures and experienced a hammy issue most of the preseason, but without those distractions, he is unquestionably one of the more intriguing backs in the game today.
Fearing that Ellington won’t hold up for 16 games this season, Cardinals management made the knee-jerk move to pickup veteran running back Chris Johnson, who like Ellington, is a home run waiting to happen. At the NFL Combine in 2008, Johnson famously ran the fastest 40-time in NFL history by posting a still record, 4.24. Aside from being one of the fastest straight-line runners in the world today, Johnson also posted a 2,000 yard season in 2009 with the Titans, giving birth to his mainstream moniker “CJ2K”. He is unlikely to run for 2K this season, especially with Andre Ellington’s fresher, lower mileage, legs ahead of him on the depth chart, but if he can’t stay healthy, expect Johnson to be waiting in the wings, ready to go.
To throw another wrench into the story, the Cardinals also drafted a running back this spring by the name of David Johnson, who at 6’1” 230 lbs can pack a punch at the point of attack. His calling card is as a receiver out of the backfield, so expect most of his work to come on third down this season. Some people see him as a potential goal line threat too due to his well built frame, but lets not get ahead of ourselves, as he is still securely number three on the depth chart behind both Ellington and Johnson.
Cowboys:
The team with the highest rushing potential this season is the Dallas Cowboys, as their all-time great offensive line provided DeMarco Murray with the lanes to rush for over 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. This year, with Murray gone, and their line still intact, the running back job is wide open for someone else to flourish to fantasy fame. The problem here is that no one back seems to have won the job out of camp, making the likelihood that they will go forward with the fantasy feared “running back by committee” to open the regular season very high.
On the 53-man roster are some capable running backs for Dallas. The leading choice for the bell-cow back is lightning rod runner, Joseph Randle, who behind DeMarco Murray on the depth chart led the NFL with a 6.7 yards per carry average last season. His frame might be a bit slight to trust with every down duties, but if he gets hot early on, expect him to maintain most of the carries going forward.
During the offseason the Cowboys brought in veteran free agent Darren McFadden, who has underwhelmed as a pro by most of his lofty expectations as a mega-prospect back in 2008. In seven NFL seasons, McFadden has only rushed for over 1,000 yards once, has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry only three times, and has never scored double-digit rushing touchdowns. His main issue has been health, as he clearly is blessed with natural talent. He has legitimate 4.3 speed and can run some people over once he gets to the second level. With the Cowboys incredible offensive line, many believe that McFadden has a chance to have his best pro season yet, but his questionable health is always looming over as a potential fantasy spoiler.
Also a part of the committee is scat-back Lance Dunbar and newly acquired 235-pounder Christine Michael. Dunbar figures to see most of the third down duties, and Michael has potential to steal some goal line carries once he becomes more acclimated with the playbook. Neither figures to be huge fantasy players this season, not without a significant injury to either Randle or McFadden at least.
Eagles:
I’m going to add my name to the list of pundits who think they can tell what Chip Kelly is thinking here, and breakdown what looks to be their 2015 running back situation.
The Eagles offseason started off chaotically, as Kelly made a surprising trade with the Bills that sent All-Pro running back, LeSean McCoy to Buffalo, while they received linebacker Kiko Alonso in return. Just when everyone thought that Kelly had lost his mind, they picked up respectable running back, Ryan Matthews, from the Chargers in what seemed to be an attempt to go with a running back by committee in 2015 with both he and Darren Sproles. Then things got even crazier, as reigning Offensive Player of the Year, DeMarco Murray, hit the open market, and Kelly decided to pull the trigger on him too. By the end of the day, the Eagles were loaded at the position that they thought they were going to be lacking in the most during 2015 after the departure of LeSean McCoy.
Headed into Sunday, DeMarco Murray is unquestionably the starter, but after the workload he handled last season in Dallas, it would almost be surprising to see him last all 16 games this season. This is why it is good that they have both Sproles and Matthews in the fold to spell him as often as needed, while also being there if he ever needs to miss any significant time during the season. Kelly’s unique “hurry-up spread offense” also will benefit from multiple capable backs due to the high tempo that he likes to maintain. Don’t be surprised if all three running backs rotate series during games this season, as Kelly’s system works best with fresh legs lined up next to the quarterback. Consider Murray the best fantasy option, with Matthews as a great handcuff, and Sproles relevant in PPR leagues.
Falcons:
The Falcons “starting” running back position seems to have been changing on a daily basis all camp long, but now that second year pro, Devonta Freeman, appears to be sidelined with a hamstring injury for at least Week 1, the starting job should be third-round rookie, Tevin Coleman’s to lose. Coleman is an incredibly talented back out of Indiana who posted video game numbers behind a shoddy Hoosiers offensive line last season. On tape, he looks to be the best one-cut runner coming out of college since Le’Veon Bell, and with the arrival of Kyle Shanahan and his patented zone-running system, it looks to be a match made in heaven. The Falcons are expecting more production out of the position this season now that they getting their starting left tackle, Jake Matthews back fully healthy, and because they added left guard Andy Levitre to shore up the offensive line. Coleman should have every opportunity to succeed this season, despite his shortcomings as a receiver out of the backfield.
49ers:
There is no book on rookie head coach, Jim Tomsula, so trying to predict his running back rotational preferences might be a tough nut to crack. It is clear however, headed into the season that the 49ers plan on having second year back Carlos Hyde serve as the leading man for offensive touches. He flashed great potential behind longtime Niner Frank Gore last season, and was basically being groomed to take over for him, after being selected in the second-round of the 2014 NFL draft. At a bulky 6’0” 235 lbs, Hyde is not best suited as a receiver, but will instead provide fantasy owners with ample goal line touches once the season gets underway.
In order to supplement Hyde’s receiving deficiencies, the 49ers went out and grabbed one of the best in the business on third down, Reggie Bush. Bush is a former fantasy starter, but after a season to forget in Detroit last season, his status has diminished dramatically. The hope for fantasy owners is that with fewer weapons and more targets and carries to go around in San Francisco, Bush might return to prominence in 2015 PPR leagues.
Also in line for a few touches for the 49ers this season is rugby star, turned NFL utility sensation, Jarryd Hayne, who has flashed some moments of greatness this preseason. It’s tough to tell how much faith Tomsula will have in Hayne this season, but if either Hyde or Bush suffer significant injures, expect Hayne to get a few touches for the 49ers.
Giants:
The Giants running back formula seems pretty straightforward this season. With their refurbished offensive line, they plan on giving Rashad Jennings most of the carries, while newly acquired third down extraordinaire, Shane Vereen, is in line to get most of the reps on passing downs. If Jennings is to re-aggravate any of his ailments from last season, expect backup Andre Williams to be ready to go as the starter, with Vereen seeing something closer to a 50-50 split. Way down on the depth chart is Orleans Darkwa, who in the preseason led the Giants in carries and yards. He tallied a solid 4.4 yards per carry, which was good enough to keep him on the 53-man roster.If the other three guys don’t work out, expect Darkwa to be given a legitimate shot to carry the load for New York.
Lions:
Joique Bell was the man for the Detroit running game last season, totaling 860 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 223 carries. Not pleased with his 3.9 yards per carry, the Lions selected Ameer Abdullah out of Nebraska with their second-round pick in this spring’s draft. Abdullah provides Detroit with things that Bell can’t. He’s explosive and shifty, a back with incredibly fresh legs, and will serve as a weapon on all three downs with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Abdullah will head into 2015 as the starter, while Bell will likely see the bulk of the touches near the goal line. Third on the depth chart is Theo Riddick, who possesses a similar skill-set to Abdullah, but is slightly less talented. If Abdullah’s slight frame can’t hold up for the entirety of 2015, expect Bell to become the starter once again, with Riddick filling in for Abdullah on third downs.
Packers:
Many people are considering Eddie Lacy as the number one fantasy player this season, so that should tell you most of what you need to know about the Packers running back situation. Green Bay’s good offensive line and top-notch passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers should provide Lacy with all the tools he needs to flourish this season as a fantasy hero. At 6’0” 230 lbs, Lacy will be the go-to-guy in the red zone for Green Bay, but what may come as a surprise to some is that he is equally as good in passing situations, as he features an accomplished skill-set as a receiver out of the backfield. Lacy should be considered a top tier running back this fantasy season because of his talent level and physical gifts, but also because of his versatile skill-set that makes him one of the few legitimate three-down backs in the league. Always lurking in the shadows for Green Bay is James Starks who will be good for a couple of series per game in order to keep Lacy fresh. If anything significant is to happen to Lacy this season in terms of injuries, suspension, etc. consider Starks his best handcuff option.
Panthers:
Jonathan Stewart, who has had some success in the NFL throughout his seven-year career, is apparently the unquestioned starter in Carolina. This will be the first time in his professional career, that he will not be battling for or splitting touches with another back. Although he has a history of being banged up often, it should be interesting to watch Stewart this season, as he has shown an ability to sustain production when on the field, evidenced by his career 4.6 yards per carry and 30 touchdowns. Consider rookie Cameron Artis-Payne his best handcuff option.
Rams:
St Louis shocked everyone in the draft this spring by selecting injured Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick. There is no question that he is incredibly gifted in terms of talent, but with other holes, and two other viable backs on the roster at the time, people were caught off guard by their selection. Headed into offseason workouts, the Rams were well aware that Gurley’s ACL recovery would be a work in progress, and didn’t even rule out starting him on the PUP list, which could have rendered him inactive for the first six weeks of the season. Fast-forward to today, and Gurley has done the impossible. He is apparently fully healthy and ready to begin contact drills and such during practices. The Rams still won’t push him to play Week 1, but he will be suiting up earlier than most thought he would back in May.
This leaves us wondering who will be getting the starting reps in his place on Sunday against the Seahawks. The most likely candidate is second-year back Tre Mason, who finished second amongst rookie runners in rushing yards last season with 765 in only 12 games played. Mason is a very explosive, downhill, runner, who has the speed and elusiveness to carry the load for the Rams during their time of need. The issue here is that he suffered a hamstring injury last week, and was at one time considered doubtful for Week 1. This week, coach Jeff Fisher has seemed more optimistic when talking about Mason, saying that he is “doing good” after two leg treatments on Sunday. If Mason isn’t good to go this upcoming Sunday against the Seahawks, consider Benny Cunningham to be the workhorse that the Rams ride for at least Week 1.
Redskins:
Although the Redskins quarterback situation was a well-documented debacle all preseason long, they contrarily seem to have a pretty competent group of players at the running back position headed into this season. Entering his fourth year, running back Alfred Morris has evidenced sustained production as a Washington Redskin during his brief tenure. In all three of his professional seasons, he has rushed for over 1,000 yards, has ran for more than 4.0 yards per carry, and has scored at least seven touchdowns on the ground. He is not the best player on third downs, but has given fantasy owners something to write home about in each of his three seasons played.
Backing him up will be rookie running back Matt Jones, who at 6’2” 230 lbs is a load coming out of the backfield. This preseason, Jones exploded onto the scene, leading all NFL rushers with 20 carries or fewer with 139 rushing yards, good enough for a whopping 7.0 yards per carry. While at the University of Florida, Jones displayed his gift as a stonewalling pass blocker, so he is likely to not only take some touches from Morris this season, but will also probably handle the third down duties going forward. Expect this two-headed monster to thrive in the nation’s capital during 2015.
Saints:
Right now, the Saints are carrying four running backs on the roster. This is likely to change when two of them come back healthy, but for now, the extra man is Tim Hightower. The other three are listed on the depth chart as follows: Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller, and Khiry Robinson.
We all know what the former Heisman Trophy winner, Ingram, is capable of, as he has only gotten better in each of his first four professional seasons. As for Spiller, he is expected to be the lightning to Ingram’s rhythmic, plodding, thunder, as he has shown throughout his career that he can score from anywhere on the field. Robinson figures to be the man outside looking in, but also will serve as an important insurance policy for both Spiller and Ingram, who have proven to be a bit fragile at times throughout their NFL careers. Don’t expect huge from any of the three players in terms of fantasy production this season, but expect Ingram to be consistently solid, a couple of big games from Spiller because that’s what he does, and a few starts from Robinson sprinkled in throughout the season, because both Ingram and Spiller are likely to miss at least a game or two this season if trends mean anything.
Seahawks:
The running back discussion for Seattle begins and ends with Marshawn Lynch, period. He is one of the few backs in recent memory to actually appear to be getting better with age, and is simply a touchdown machine. The Seahawks might have just recently added veteran Fred Jackson, but he is only likely to be a fantasy factor on third downs, typically when Russell Wilson takes over the game anyway. Lynch should once again be near the top of fantasy draft boards, as his frame appears comfortable with taking the beatings of an NFL season.
Vikings:
And finally, the Minnesota Vikings… How fitting that this article ends with one of the most intriguing running back storylines in the NFL this season, not because there is a legitimate competition, but because it involves the controversy of one of the best to ever do it, Adrian Peterson.
Peterson has been away from the game for a long time now, and has not received a regular season carry since Week 1 of 2014. He is now entering the 31st year of his life, a time typically when running backs tend to break down, but prior to the season long suspension, he showed no signs of deterioration. We all know that Peterson is an all-time great, and has managed to score at least 10 touchdowns on the ground in each of his seasons prior to his exemption from the league last year, but the question is how much rust will he have to shake after a year away from the game. Your best bet would be to believe in the determination of the Palestine, Texas native, and assume that at least for 2015, he will be just as good as any other back in the league. He’s got a solid supporting cast this year now with the emergence of second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, a solid offensive line, and a good group of receivers that can work on keeping players out of the box for him. Expect a big year from Peterson and expect a big season from the Vikings in 2015.
If anything unfortunate should happen to Peterson, the Vikes will roll with touchdown machine, Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon at the running back position, likely on a close to 50-50 split.
** Check back in tomorrow, as I will be rolling out my AFC edition of the “2015 Running Back Workload – Regular Season Preview” **