Numbers scare some people. Better yet, they turn some people completely off. I’m like a moth to a flame because delectable digits fascinate me to no end. Hopefully I’ll be able to share some of that passion with you in this piece which includes numbers that intrigue, titillate and illuminate the men who make their mark on the gridiron.
QUARTERBACKS
Drew Brees has three of the top-5 yardage seasons in NFL history. He’s the only man ever to pass for 5,000 yards in three straight seasons, although he fell just short last season with 4,952 passing yards, which tied Ben Roethlisberger for the NFL lead. Over those four seasons, Brees has averaged 5,192 passing yards. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the only two men to have ever thrown for that many yards in a single season. Moreover, Brees has thrown at least 33 touchdown passes (more than two per game) in each of the past seven seasons. Aaron Rodgers has only reached that mark three times, Tom Brady five times and Peyton Manning seven times in their careers.
Jay Cutler had five straight games of double digit touchdown passes to start the season. His total of 28 passing scores was a career best.
Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger all had 42 passes last season of at least 25 yards. Blake Bortles and Derek Carr had 21 each. Luck also led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes, one more than Russell Wilson (20) and Colin Kaepernick (19) had combined.
Luck averaged 341 passing yards and 2.75 touchdown passes per game over the first half of the season. In his final eight games, he averaged a mere 254 passing yards and 2.25 touchdown passes per contest.
Peyton Manning threw 112 passes in the red zone, the most in football. Three others were in triple digits: Aaron Rodgers (109), Eli Manning (104) and Ben Roethlisberger (101). Manning threw 27 passes inside the five-yard line. Andy Dalton (7), Russell Wilson (8) and Jay Cutler (12) threw the same amount of such passes combined.
Peyton Manning stunk up the joint in December. His 76.8 rating was lower than Kyle Orton (80.0). He only threw three touchdown passes while Shaun Hill threw four. He tossed six interceptions while Eli Manning threw two. Peyton wasn’t the only signal caller who dealt with issues limiting the turnovers late in the year. Drew Brees tied Manning with six picks in December, but both men were two interceptions behind Philip Rivers who tossed eight.
Cam Newton led all quarterbacks with 17 runs in the red zone. Do you know who was second? OK, you got Russell Wilson (16), but who also had 16 such runs? That’s right, Andrew Luck. Newton led quarterbacks with four carries inside the five-yard line, which is the same number as, get this, Joe Flacco. I know, right?
Two guys threw a lot of passes on first down: Tony Romo (43.4 percent) and Aaron Rodgers (42.1). They were the only two who threw on 40 percent of their club’s first downs.
Aaron Rodgers had a 133.2 rating at home to lead football. Peyton Manning (117.5) and Ben Roethlisberger (114.8) rounded out the top three. The top three on the road were Tony Romo (121.8), Russell Wilson (107.6) and Drew Brees (101.0).
Ben Roethlisberger tied Drew Brees for first in the NFL with 4,952 passing yards. Prior to last season, Big Ben averaged a mere 3,348 passing yards per 16 games. In fact, 2014 was the first time he’s ever thrown for 4,350 yards in a season. Matt Ryan has eclipsed that mark each of the past three seasons. Roethlisberger also threw for 32 scores, the second time in 11 seasons he’s thrown for 30 scores. Philip Rivers has thrown for 30 scores each of the past two years.
Nine is the first odd number that is not a prime number.
Ben Roethlisberger threw for 12 scores in Weeks 8-9. Remove those two games and he had 20 touchdown passes in 14 games, a rate of 1.43 passing scores a contest. If we remove those two six touchdown efforts, he’s averaged 1.52 passing scores a contest over 157 games in his career.
Tony Romo led the NFL in December with 12 touchdown passes and just one interception. He threw for as many scores as Big Ben (six) and Aaron Rodgers (six) combined. Romo also led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.4). Lucky he did given that he attempted 435 passes. Drew Brees completed 456 passes.
Alex Smith threw four passes of 35 or more yards. No other team’s primary quarterback had fewer than seven.
Russell Wilson threw for 3,475 yards and 20 scores last season. Fourteen other quarterbacks matched those numbers. Hell, Joe Flacco threw for 511 more yards and seven more touchdown passes. In fact, Derek Carr threw for one more score than Wilson. Moreover, Drew Brees completed four more passes than Wilson attempted last season. Then there is this: Kyle Orton (251.5), Brian Hoyer (237.6), Mike Glennon (236.2), Teddy Bridgewater (245.5) and Alex Smith (217.7) all threw for more yards per game than Wilson (217.2) last year. He had better keep running to maintain his fantasy value, although his 849 rushing yards and six scores are totals that Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham never reached in a single season.
No quarterback in football benefited more from his receivers last season than Big Ben who led football with 2,372 yards after the catch by his wideouts. Matthew Stafford (2,280) and Andrew Luck (2,266) complete the top three.
Only three men in football had a yards per attempt mark over eight: Tony Romo (8.52), Aaron Rodgers (8.43) and Ben Roethlisberger (8.14).
RUNNING BACKS
Running backs with 300 carries over the past decade:
2005: 10 2010: 7
2006: 10 2011: 2
2007: 6 2012: 5
2008: 5 2013: 2
2009: 6 2014: 2
Runners simply do not get the volume they once did with all the shared backfields that are all the rage. DeMarco Murray led the way with 392 carries, the most in the NFL since Larry Johnson’s NFL record 416 in 2006. Besides Murray’s effort there have been eight other instances in which a man carried the ball 392 times in a season. Here are their carry totals in the year that followed: Larry Johnson (158), Jamaal Anderson (19), James Wilder (365), Eric Dickerson (283), Eddie George (315), Gerald Riggs (343), Terrell Davis (67) and Ricky Williams (168). Of those eight men, four failed to record even half as many carries in the next season. Oh yeah, don’t forget that Murray also had 57 receptions meaning he touched the ball 449 times last season. In 2012-2013, he carried the ball 378 times and caught 88 passes which totaled 466 touches.
In four years in Seattle, Marshawn Lynch has run for at least 11 touchdowns every season. He’s also run for at least 1,200 yards in every campaign. No other back in football can match that four-year run.
Justin Forsett ran for 1,266 yards in 16 games in 2014. In his previous 73 games he ran for a total of 1,692 yards.
Did you realize that Matt Forte had 102 receptions when no other back had even 85? Forte had more catches than Jordy Nelson (98), Odell Beckham Jr. (91) and Dez Bryant (88). Forte had those 102 receptions for 880 yards and four touchdowns. The following running backs didn’t run for 880 yards and four scores last season: Joique Bell, C.J. Anderson, Chris Ivory, Jonathan Stewart and Giovani Bernard.
How many people realize that Frank Gore ran for 73 more yards than Jamaal Charles? Speaking of Gore, he’s old, I get it, but he’s with an elite offense in Indianapolis and he did carry the ball 51 times for 302 yards in his final two games last season.
Jonathan Stewart has finally rid himself of DeAngelo Williams. Until he shows he can play all 16 games, it’s difficult to trust Stewart. However, just for giggles here are his December numbers: 100.3 yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry.
Here are the top ten runners the last three seasons based on ADP numbers. How many of them “hit” and produced as expected? Rankings are based on a traditional PPR setup for Weeks 1-16 (one point per reception, one point for ten yards rushing’/receiving, six points for touchdowns).
2012
Arian Foster – 4th
LeSean McCoy – 16th
Ray Rice – 3rd Chris Johnson – 13th
Matt Forte – 11th
Adrian Peterson – 1st
Marshawn Lynch – 5th Jamaal Charles – 8th
Maurice-Jones Drew – 52nd
Darren McFadden – 24th
2013
Adrian Peterson – 7th Doug Martin – 56th
Arian Foster – 42nd
Jamaal Charles – 1st
Marshawn Lynch – 5th LeSean McCoy – 2nd
C.J. Spiller – 31st
Ray Rice – 24th
Matt Forte – 3rd
Trent Richardson – 33rd
2014
Adrian Peterson – 128th Jamaal Charles – 7th
LeSean McCoy – 12th Matt Forte – 2nd
Montee Ball – 89th
Eddie Lacy – 6th
Marshawn Lynch – 4th DeMarco Murray – 3rd
Giovani Bernard – 19th
Arian Foster – 5th
In 2012, there were only two who failed to be a top-20 runner. In 2013, four failed to be a top-30 runner. Last season, only two guys failed to be a top-20 play. Not every guy pays off for sure, but there haven’t been as many total crap-outs as some would lead you to believe.
Joique Bell picked up 81 percent of the Lions red zone carries last season, more than anyone in football in terms of a percentage. Shockingly, the second guy on the list was Darren McFadden (80 percent). DMC scored twice last year and had 16 out of 20 of the Raiders’ carries inside the 20-yard line. How awful were the Raiders on the ground last year?
Jeremy Hill ran for 929 yards from Week 9 on, which was the most in the league. He had four games of 140 yards rushing making him just the third rookie to ever do that (Eric Dickerson had five in 1983 and Curtis Martin had four in 1995).
Mark Ingram led all running backs in football last season with 20 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, six more attempts than the next runner, Marshawn Lynch. There were two men who had only six rushing scores on the season despite having at least ten carries inside the five-yard line: Chris Ivory and Matt Forte.
No running back in football was “stuffed” more than LeSean McCoy last year with 41. That is more “stuffs” than Marshawn Lynch (20) and Eddie Lacy (19) had combined. Only one other running back had more than 28 such runs – DeMarco Murray at 37. At the other end of the spectrum, the leader in fewest stuffs was, get this, Shonn Greene (once in 94 starts).
Eddie Lacy is the first player in Packers history to run for 1,000 yards with ten touchdowns in each of his first two seasons.
DeMarco Murray led the NFL with eight rushing scores within three yards of the goaline. Matt Asiata and Joique Bell both had five. C.J. Anderson scored five times on 11 carries inside the ten-yard line, a 45.5 percent rate to lead football. One other runner had a 40+ percent conversion rate (Marshawn Lynch with 11 of 26 carries for a 42.3 percent mark).
Lamar Miller was the best running back in terms of yards per carry on grass with a minimum of 50 attempts at 5.5. A couple other runners were also above five in: Latavius Murray (5.4), Justin Forsett (5.3) and Marshawn Lynch (5.2). On the fake stuff (not grass), the leader was LeSean McCoy (5.5) who was just ahead of Justin Forsett (5.4), Khiry Robinson (5.3), Jeremy Hill (5.2) and Arian Foster (5.2).
Le’Veon Bell averaged 6.5 yards per carry on 26 carries in games after he had already carried the ball 20 times. From carries 11-20 in a game, the leader in yards per carry was Jeremy Hill (6.0). Justin Forsett (5.9) and Jamaal Charles (5.4) are the only other runners who were over five yards per carry.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Eleven wideouts scored at least ten times in 2014. That tied the 1995 season for the most in history.
The rumor is that third year wideouts break out, right? Two third-year wideouts had 75 receptions: Alshon Jeffery (85) and T.Y. Hilton (82). They are also the only two who had 850 yards receiving (Hilton with 1,345 yards and Jeffery with 1,133 yards). They are also the only two with at least seven receiving scores (Jeffery - ten, Hilton – seven). Just two guys? That’s not overly impressive Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans are the first trio of rookie wideouts to go for 1,000 receiving yards. ODB and Evans are the first rookie wideout duo to each record ten receiving scores in the same season.
Over his last nine games, ODB caught 81 passes for 1,199 yards and nine scores. That’s an average game of nine receptions, 133 yards and one score.
Kelvin Benjamin had a great rookie season with 73 receptions, 1,008 yards and nine scores. He’s also the only guy who saw 145 targets at the wideout position that failed to catch 85 passes. Will things improve with often scattershot Cam Newton throwing the ball in 2015? Can Benjamin cut down on his 11 drops?
Antonio Brown’s average effort the last two seasons includes 120 receptions and 1,599 yards. In his storied career, Calvin Johnson has reached both those numbers in a season just one time (2012). Brown also caught 85 passes for first downs to lead football in 2014. Alshon Jeffery caught 85 passes in all scenarios last season.
Dez Bryant caught 15 of 28 targets last year on passes of at least 20 yards. He didn’t drop a single one of those passes. As a result, his 53.6 percent catch rate on passes of at least 20 yards led the league. Bryant has also scored 56 times since entering the NFL back in 2010. No wideout in football has scored more. Bryant has scored 19 of those touchdowns in December including six in the last three weeks of 2014.
Randall Cobb led football with ten receptions inside the ten yard line. That’s the same number as the combined totals of Jordy Nelson (five) and Dez Bryant (five). When Aaron Rodgers threw passes to Cobb last season, his quarterback rating was 134.3, the best in football. The second best quarterback rating on passes to a wideout was for Cobb’s teammate, Jordy Nelson (128.2).
Mike Evans had five scores and 458 yards in Weeks 9-11 leading to 96.8 fantasy points in a PPR setup. He recorded 228.7 fantasy points on the year meaning he scored 42 percent of his season-long fantasy points in just 18.8 percent of the games.
DeSean Jackson averaged 8.6 yards after the catch, the most in football for anyone with ten receptions. Moreover, no other player who caught 50 passes had a mark over 7.3 yards after catch (Golden Tate).
Julio Jones went for nearly 100 yards per game with 1,593 total receiving yards for the Falcons. He averaged 153.3 yards a game in his final five contests.
Jeremy Maclin and Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with just one drop last season. Maclin caught 22 more passes though – 85 to 63 – so he led the NFL with a 1.16 percent drop rate. In the other direction, Mohamed Sanu dropped 14 of 70 catchable passes for a 20.0 percent drop rate.
Jordan Matthews ran 92.4 percent of his snaps out of the slot last year. Cole Beasley was the only other guy who lined up out of the slot for more than 90 percent of the snaps. Randall Cobb led the way with 75 receptions out of the slot, nine more than Matthews. Cobb was the only wideout in football with more than eight scores out of the slot (12). Matthews scored eight.
Steve Smith caught 79 passes for 1,065 yards and six scores last season. He scored three times in September and only three times the rest of the season. He produced 429 yards in September, but didn’t have 250 yards in any of the final three months.
Golden Tate had 99 receptions for the Lions. That’s one more than Jordy Nelson, eight more than Odell Beckham and 11 more than Dez Bryant. Tate also went for 1,331 yards which was 11 more than Bryant, 26 more than Beckham and 44 more than Randall Cobb. Additionally, Tate had 720 yards after the catch, the most of any wideout in football. To compare, ODB had only 517 yards after the catch.
Demaryius Thomas was the only wideout in football last season to see double-digit targets inside the five-yard line. Dez Bryant and Roddy White both had eight. Thomas also led all wide receivers with 39 targets in the red zone. Antonio Brown was second with 34. No other wideout was in the 30’s.
Sammy Watkins had 128 passes thrown his way last season. Forty-four of those passes were termed uncatchable leading to a 34.4 percent uncatchable rate. Only one other man in football with 80-targets had worse targeting from his quarterback (Cecil Shorts 37.3 percent). Things may not improve much for Watkins in 2015. Did you know that Watkins was fifth amongst wideouts last year in snaps behind only Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin?
TIGHT ENDS
Two tight ends went over 1,000-yards: Rob Gronkowski (1,124) and Greg Olsen (1,008). Only one other had 900 yards (Martellus Bennett at 916). The only man at the position to have 1,000 yards and seven scores was Gronkowski. There were only seven tight ends in the game who averaged 50 yards a game last season (800 yards).
Only four tight ends caught 80-balls in 2014: Martellus Bennett (90), Jimmy Graham (85), Greg Olsen (84) and Rob Gronkowski (82). No tight end in football caught 70-79 passes meaning Antonio Gates was fifth at the position with 69 grabs. Moreover, four catches for 16 games results in 64 receptions. Only three others caught at least 64 passes: Travis Kelce (67) and Heath Miller (66). That means only eight tight ends averaged four receptions a game.
Martellus Bennett tied for the most red zone looks last year of any tight end in football with 22, the same number as Larry Donnell. Dwayne Allen was hurt on and off all year leading to just nine red zone looks. Guess how many times he scored last year though? Eight times. Bennett didn’t lead tight ends in looks inside the 10-yard line though. That honor went to Antonio Gates (14) who had one more than Charles Clay. Once we get to the five-yard line, the leader, not surprisingly, was Jimmy Graham (7) one more than Gates. By the by… 50 percent of Bennett’s 20 career touchdowns have come in the month of September. He scored four times last September and four times in September of 2013.
Were you aware than an NFL field is 53 yards wide?
Jermaine Gresham scored three times in December, the same total as Travis Kelce (1), Martellus Bennett (1) and Greg Olsen (1) combined. Bennett did lead the position with 25 receptions in the month, one more than Zack Ertz (24) who is looking to break out in 2015.
Rob Gronkowski led all tight ends with 0.34 points per snap in a PPR setup. The next two men on the list were Jimmy Graham (0.32) and Antonio Gates (0.31). The two men who round out the top-5 are surprising: Jordan Reed (0.28) and Timothy Wright (0.27).
Rob Gronkowski scored 41.9 points in a PPR setup in Week 8 when he caught nine balls for 149 yards and one score against the Bears. Vernon Davis scored 61 fantasy points all season. Davis scored twice in Week 1 and then didn’t score again. He scored 13 times in 2013.
$100,000 is the amount of the check that was written to FantasyAlarm by Fanduel after Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster won the Playboy Baseball Championship in early June.
Rob Gronkowski led all tight end with 2.53 yards per route run. The only other tight end in football with a mark over two was Travis Kelce (2.26). As his health improved in his knee, Kelce saw his performance increase. In fact, he dominated in December averaging six receptions and 71 yards a game. If he did that for 16 games he would record 96 receptions and 1,136 yards. No tight end in football hit either of those marks last season.
Did you know that an average NFL game includes about 11 minutes of actual game play? There are actually more minutes in a football game of replays (17) than live game action.
Travis Kelce caught 67 of 87 targets last season. He and Jermaine Gresham were the only tight ends with at least 60 receptions who didn’t have 90 targets (Gresham caught 62 of 79). Kelce was the only tight end in football who had a yards after catch mark of better than 6.2 yards at 7.6 (minimum 60 receptions).
Julius Thomas led all tight ends with a 36.6 percent rate of all red zone passes thrown by the Broncos last season (Greg Olsen was the only other tight end to receive 30 percent of his team’s red zone passes last season). What will he do in Jacksonville in 2015? Thomas was one of four tight ends to score ten times last season, as he became the first tight end ever to have back-to-back seasons of 12 touchdowns. He caught 43 passes. The other three guys – Gronkowski, Gates and Graham – besides all having names that start with “G”, caught at least 69 passes each.