2021 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Michael Conforto (FREE PREVIEW)
.jpg)
Published: Mar 21, 2021
Editor's Note: For more fantasy baseball player profiles, check out Greg's work in the 2021 Fantasy Alarm MLB Draft Guide. Use promo code JEWETT for 40% off!
Shortened season results come with a grain of salt. Michael Conforto finished with a robust .322/.412/.515 slash line becoming the fourth player in team history to finish with a batting average of .300 or better, a 40 percent or higher on-base percentage and a slugging percent of at least .500 in a season. Part of his batting average growth occurred in his splits:
Conforto versus RHP: .344 average (fifth in the majors) with a .960 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS)
Conforto versus LHP: .284 average, .870 OPS plus four home runs in 74 at-bats
Conforto ranked among the National League leaders in the following categories:
Batting average - 6th
On-base percentage - 6th
Hits - 7th (65)
Runs - 11th
Outfield assists - 1st (6)
On the surface, it appears he traded some power for contact and average during the shortened season. Conforto's isolated power dropped to .193 while his weighted on-base average spiked to .401. It also resonates in his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage rising by five points to 86.8 percent.
Transitioning to Statcast, Conforto recorded 145 batted ball events with 16 barrels (11 percent), an 88.4 MPH average exit velocity and a 36.6 hard hit rate. While his slash lines appear terrific, the expected numbers suggest some migration to the mean going forward evidenced by the expected statistics:
.284 expected batting average (xBA)
.478 expected slugging (xSLG)
.375 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA)
Here's Conforto's zone profile illustrating these numbers:
Encouraging signs emerged in Conforto's approach on Statcast. Despite his zone swing percentage decreasing his zone contact rate rose by 4.5 points to 83.4 percent. Other indicators remained steady in terms of swing percentage and whiff rates.
Part of less home runs lied in more ground balls within the batted ball data. Conforto generated a ground ball percentage of 41.4 while hitting fewer fly balls (down almost 12 percentage points) but a spike in line drive rate to an outlier level of 34.5 percent, seven points above his career average. It's tough to project Conforto to hit at or above .300 over a full season knowing numbers like this regress to the mean. Especially when exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel rates all declined.
In an effort to expand his sample size, here's Conforto's numbers from the start of the second half of 2019 through and including last year:
Conforto 2H 2019-through-2020: 124 games, 536 plate appearances, 83 runs, 26 home runs, 79 RBI, five stolen bases; .293/.386/.517, 11.2 BB%, 23.7 K%, .224 ISO, .383 wOBA
During this time frame, the power fantasy players crave from his surfaced which coincides with his second half breakout from 2019. Either he carries over these gains or as implied above, correction may be looming.
Over the last three years, check out Conforto's results before assessing his projection sets:
Conforto Last 3 Years: 358 games, 1,519 plate appearances, 208 runs, 70 home runs, 205 RBI, 13 stolen bases; .261/.365/.478, 12.6 BB%, 24 K%, .216 ISO, .358 wOBA
Now for his projections for 2021:
When seeing his price point in drafts, going to align with THE BAT X in terms of power production but Conforto can hit in the .275-to-.285 range in 2021. Just do not pay for the career year slash lines from 2020 when targeting him in upcoming drafts and auctions.
Editor's Note: For more fantasy baseball player profiles, check out Greg's work in the 2021 Fantasy Alarm MLB Draft Guide. Use promo code JEWETT for 40% off!
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
THE BAT X and THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Derek Carty
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.