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Following up on his strong debut from 2018, Shane Bieber racked up 15 wins last year with a 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Bieber led the American League in fewest walks per nine innings (1.68) and finished third in strikeouts to walks ratio (6.47). Part of Bieber’s success lies in his ability to limit free passes. He’s issued two or fewer walks in 47 of his 53 career starts in the majors.
Perhaps it’s recency bias, but Bieber’s last 14 starts yielded an 8 - 5 record with two complete games, a 2.82 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 137 strikeouts and only 17 walks over 118 innings. Bieber overcomes his propensity giving up home runs with command and limiting big innings. He owned a 25.5 strikeouts minus walks percentage while increasing his swinging strike percentage to 14 percent (up 2.6 points) and his O-Swing percentage to 35 from 30.9 in 2018. Also, Bieber reduced contact by over five percentage points to 70.6 last year with his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) holding steady.
Transitioning to Statcast, here’s Bieber’s arsenal last year with his usage percentages included:
Adjusting to the hitter friendly environment from last year, Bieber used his four-seam fastball less in 2019 compared to his debut with increased frequency of his secondary offerings. It will be interesting to see if his usage patterns carry over to the upcoming season. Check out his results by pitch:
- Four-seam fastball - 26.4 strikeout percentage, 13.7 whiff rate, 23.4 put away percent
- Slider - 34.6 strikeout percentage, 43.5 whiff rate, 30.8 put away percent
- Curve - 39.9 strikeout percentage, 48.7 whiff rate, 27.7 put away percent
- Change - 10.7 strikeout percentage, 21.9 whiff rate, 16.2 put away percent
For the visual crowd, here’s Bieber’s swing and miss chart:
With baseball trending towards elevated fastballs and pitches down in the zone to generate strikeouts, Bieber falls within it. However, his fastball can be straight at times making him vulnerable to hard hit data and home runs. Last season, Bieber’s hard hit percentage yielded rose to 43.1 percent which he combats with a low walk rate but there’s some pending regression with his fastball (.231 batting average but .267 xBA). When viewing his zone profile, Bieber gives up a higher launch angle at the top of the strike zone and generates more ground balls in the bottom third, with fewer strikeouts. This will be something he needs to resolve to limit home runs going forward.
However, as the chart illustrates, Bieber allows more barrels in the bottom third of the strike zone. All told, do not overthink the process. Bieber’s uncanny command and ability to mitigate hard hits can be seen within his 26 - 13 career record the last two seasons. Just heed the data and target accordingly. Plus, he improved his chase rate, swing and whiff percentages last year. Ramping up his secondary pitches proved he adapts on the fly, so focus on his last 14 starts when making a blueprint for the 2020 season.
Taking into account his past performance with an eye on the future, Bieber’s average projection using five sites on Fangraphs adds to his allure in drafts:
- Shane Bieber 2020 Aggregate Projection - 32 starts, 197 innings, 14 wins, 217 strikeouts, 3.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
It appears the projection systems heed his 3.94 xERA from 2019 but knowing his career FIP of 3.29, Bieber should be able to beat his projected ratio statistics above. Especially if he uses his slider and curve at the same level from last year. In the event of a shortened season, his projections would adjust as such:
- Bieber 108-game projection - 21 starts, 131 innings, nine wins, 145 strikeouts
- Bieber 81-game projection - 16 starts, 99 innings, seven wins, 109 strikeouts
Investors will benefit from an adjusted baseball in the major leagues with higher seams and less distance traveled on batted ball data. Especially those who target Bieber. He could offset this with migration towards his ground ball percentage from 2018 and giving up fewer line drives but remains a borderline first starter in fantasy given his strong strikeout to walk ratios. If his four-seam fastball maintains its performance from last year, a repeat could be in the offing for Bieber.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
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