With starting pitchers rising in terms of draft capital, Walker Buehler will be an intriguing target. Buehler won 14 of his 18 decisions last year during his 30 starts spanning 182.1 innings of work. He struck out 215 batters versus 37 walks with a 3.26 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in one of the most hitter friendly environments in the live ball era. Pitching for a team forecast to win at least 60 percent of its contests also makes him more alluring. 

Buehler made improvements last season increasing his swinging strike percentage and O-Swing percentage while reducing both contact rate along with Z-Contact (in the strike zone). Armed with a 29.2 strikeout percentage and minuscule five percent walk rate, Buehler’s 24.2 strikeouts minus walks percent ranked seventh among his peers. In the National League, Buehler tied for sixth in wins, finished ninth in ERA, ninth in opponents batting average (.223) and sixth in WHIP. He posted two of the top strikeout performances without issuing a walk last year with 16 versus Colorado on June 21st and 15 against the Padres on August third. 

Before delving into his Statcast data, check out Buehler’s pitch arsenal:

Without being privy to Buehler’s thought process, it seems as though he adjusted his pitch usage in 2019 due to the lower seams of the baseball. Compared to 2018, Buehler increased his fastball usage by almost 13 percent. This slightly reduced his pattern of use of his secondary pitches. Here’s a breakdown of his four most used pitches last season: 

  • Four-seam fastball - 30.8 strikeout percentage, 24.6 whiff rate, 24.9 put away percent
  • Slider - 34.8 strikeout percentage, 32.2 whiff rate, 24.4 put away percent
  • Cutter - 20.5 strikeout percentage, 26.6 whiff rate, 34.8 put away percent
  • Curve - 38.9 strikeout percentage, 37.3 whiff rate, 25.5 put away percent

It makes sense to ponder why wouldn’t Buehler use his curve more, but first here’s his arsenal chart displaying swings and misses last year: 

In 2018, Buehler thrived with his curve holding hitters to a .196 batting average, .211 expected batting average, and .276 expected slugging percentage. Even with a higher spin rate last year, Buehler’s curve proved less effective yielding a .292 batting average but with .233 expected batting average and .364 expected slugging percentage. A return to a baseball with higher seams could allow Buehler’s curve to migrate towards its success from 2018 giving him upside in the year ahead.

While this remains a possibility, Buehler improved his chase percentage last year along with his swing percent and whiff rate. Unfortunately, he traded ground ball percentage for more fly balls and line drives putting his xERA at 3.28 but positive regression could be pending for the talented starter. In fact, if his curve rebounds towards his expected numbers from last season or towards its elite numbers in 2018, Buehler gains strikeout upside despite his breakout last year. 

It remains to be seen if Buehler can take another step forward, but he will not turn 26 until July of this year. His average projection using four sites notes his movement towards the top tier of pitchers: 

  • Walker Buehler 2020 Aggregate Projection - 32 starts, 192 innings, 14 wins, 221 strikeouts, 3.37 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Noting projection systems take into account past performance with an eye on the future, Buehler should finish below his ratio projections. In the event of a shortened season, here are his projections in two different scenarios: 

  • Buehler in a 108-game season - 21 starts, 128 innings, nine wins, 147 strikeouts
  • Buehler in an 81-game season - 16 starts, 96 innings, seven wins, 111 strikeouts

Age and being in the Dodgers rotation makes Buehler an advantageous target at the turn in drafts. If his arsenal rebounds to his 2018 levels with the ability to move his fastball around the zone, Buehler could increase his strikeout total in the season ahead. One cannot chase wins but Buehler’s strong track record in the category and stuff may move him up in the pecking order of starting pitchers. Invest with confidence and hope he remains healthy. 

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com