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Sometimes a breakout occurs with a change in repertoire yet flies below the radar in fantasy. Last year, Max Fried added a slider to his arsenal in the second half, causing an increase in his strikeouts. During the first half, Fried worked 98.2 innings with a 22.8 strikeout percentage, 6.8 walk rate, 4.29 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.41 WHIP and 10.9 swinging strike percentage. After the break, Fried introduced his slider resulting in a 27.4 strikeout percentage, 6.5 walk rate, 3.63 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 12.4 swinging strike percentage his last 67 innings. Over his last 50.2 innings with increased slider usage, Fried increased his swinging strike percentage to 12.9 percent, his strikeout percent to 28.9 and lowered his FIP to 3.23. Pretty, pretty good.
All told, Fried won 17 games in 2019 but works in the shadow of teammate Mike Soroka . This means a unique buying opportunity on a southpaw with strikeout upside in the upcoming season. Fried owned a 17.9 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage over his 165.2 innings last year with a 4.02 ERA, 3.72 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. His swinging strike percentage of 11.4 percent and 31.9 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) mask the late season spikes in production, but savvy owners will take note.
Before delving into his Statcast data, here’s Fried’s arsenal from last season in pitch plot form:
Recalling Fried added the slider in the second half, he used the pitch almost 16 percent of the time for the year but when weighing it by month, Fried gradually increased the use of the pitch in May to 13.3 percent spiking to 21.9 by September. With this in mind, Fried’s pitch patterns changed, unlocking his strikeout capabilities. Using his totals for the season, here’s how each of his three main pitches fared:
- Four-seam fastball - 15.4 strikeout percentage, 20.4 whiff rate, 17 put away percent
- Curve - 41.7 strikeout percentage, 37.9 whiff rate, 28.2 put away percent
- Slider - 34.1 strikeout percentage, 28.8 whiff rate, 23.8 put away percent
Adding the slider helped Fried’s curve surge in terms of swings and misses. Check out his pitch plot highlighting swings and misses courtesy of Statcast:
With this in mind, Fried also depressed hard hits in an extremely hitter friendly environment in 2019. Of his 476 batted ball events last year, he yielded only 21 barrels resulting in a 4.4 barrel percentage which ranked among the top seven percent in the majors. Fried also owned an average launch angle of 3.6 degrees and a 3.86 expected earned run average (xERA). Here’s his zone profile as visual proof:
Not only did Fried win 17 games last season, if he pitches towards his xERA (3.86) or FIP (3.72), he’s in line for an improved 2020 campaign. Wins can be fluky, but as evidence points out, Fried could improve his strikeout rate if carried over all season with his slider joining his above average curve. Taking four projection systems on Fangraphs then averaging the results, Fried’s forecast looks intriguing:
- Max Fried 2020 Aggregate Projection - 31 starts, 175 innings, 13 wins, 180 strikeouts, 3.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
While the projections take into account Fried’s potential gain in terms of ERA, it overlooks his improved WHIP (1.20) from his second half. This makes Fried worth a reach as a third starter with upside in fantasy this year. In the event a shortened season occurs, here’s how his numbers could change in two different scenarios:
- Fried 108-game season projection - 20 starts, 113 innings, nine wins, 116 strikeouts
- Fried 81-game season projection - 15 starts, 85 innings, seven wins, 87 strikeouts
Keeping in mind the gains displayed by Fried and the potential for better ratios makes him someone to target in the double digit rounds. Do not be afraid to reach for Fried as a third starter in fantasy with a second starter upside. Especially if his 28.9 strikeout percentage from his last nine starts carries over to this season. Fried may not be a hidden gem in 2021 drafts but remains one this year.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
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