Representing the undervalued veterans with batting average protection does not prove to be a sexy attribute in average draft position. Michael Brantley could be a poster boy for this despite slashing .311/.372/.503 last year with 88 runs, 22 home runs, 90 RBI and three stolen bases in 148 contests. His outfield defense can leave something to be desired, but health allowed Brantley his most games played since 2014 and his elite plate discipline yields upside for team’s with risky hitters.
Not only did Brantley own an eight percent walk percentage versus a 10.4 strikeout rate, he puts together great at-bats. Brantley ranked second among his peers in swinging strike percentage (four percent), contact percent (90.8) and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) with a robust 95.8 percent. Hitting in a loaded lineup provides valuable counting statistics such as runs and RBI for Brantley.
According to Statcast, Brantley recorded 513 batted ball events with 30 barrels (5.8 percent), an 88.7 MPH average exit velocity and 10.6-degree launch angle. Even in a season with many hitters selling out for power, Brantley stayed the course with a steady 38.4 sweet spot and 37.4 hard hit percentages. His plate discipline launch angle and approach probably cap Brantley’s power upside, but he hit 22 home runs last year with a 46 percent ground ball rate. A 28.1-line drive percentage fuels his average making him an alluring part of a balanced team profile giving owners a chance to reach for a flawed power hitter with a lower projected average. As a reference, here’s Brantley’s spray chart from last year:
Beneath Brantley’s batted ball data, he pulled the ball 39 percent of the time with a 26.1 opposite field percent. There’s not much regression in his expected statistics with Brantley notching a .303 expected batting average, .490 expected slugging and .362 expected weighted on-base average. Sometimes, getting exactly what one invested in provides value and Brantley’s zone profile illustrates this:
Over the last three years, Brantley’s appeared in 381 games spanning 1,483 at-bats with 224 runs, 48 home runs, 218 RBI, 26 stolen bases and a .307/.366/.476 slash line. It remains to be seen if Brantley will return to his more aggressive nature on the bases in terms of steals, but his total fell below double digits for the first time since 2010 with at least 72 games played.
Using the five projection systems on Fangraphs, Brantley’s 2020 season seems a bit light on games and steals but those remain questions from his past. Here’s the average of all five for Brantley:
- Michael Brantley 2020 Aggregate Projection - 137 games, 78 runs, 18 home runs, 78 RBI, six stolen bases, .295 average
Noting his last three-year slash lines, the average seems a bit low for Brantley. However, paying for this baseline still allows room for profit taking him at his present price point in average draft position. In the event baseball moves forward with a shortened season, here’s his numbers from above in two different scenarios:
- Brantley 108-game projection - 61 runs, 14 home runs, 61 RBI, five stolen bases
- Brantley 81-game projection - 46 runs, 11 home runs, 46 RBI, four stolen bases
In a truncated year, Brantley’s average could be a welcomed cushion for a team with streaky players. Target him with confidence for an average near .300 due to his terrific approach at the plate.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
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