For the Archie Bradley truthers, last year must be surreal. Bradley led the majors in saves from July 30th until the end of the season with 18 along with converting each of his last 14 save chances along with tossing 8.2 scoreless frames ending his year. Like his profile in the past, taking what Bradley did within this hot streak needs to be tempered. Over his last 25.2 innings, Bradley owned a 2.10 ERA with 23 strikeouts, nine walks, a 4.68 xFIP and 1.05 WHIP. While his ratios look enticing, ignoring his xFIP would be a mistake.
Also, within this sample, Bradley owned a 22.1 strikeout percentage against an 8.6 walk rate. Results do not lie, but determining how well Bradley can repeat this success remains at the root of his outlook for 2020.
Bradley logged 71.2 innings in 2019 with 87 strikeouts versus 30 walks, a 3.52 ERA, 4.06 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP. His ground ball rate of 45.2 percent rates well and Bradley increased his strikeout percentage to 27.4 but so did his walk percent to 11.4 last year. According to Statcast, Bradley yielded 189 batted ball events with nine barrels among them (4.8 percent). His average exit velocity against of 88.2 MPH accompanied an 11.5-degree launch angle.
Before delving into swing and miss data, here’s Bradley’s arsenal last year courtesy of Statcast:
Noting his two most used pitches were the four-seam fastball and the curve, Bradley generated a lower swing percentage but a higher whiff percentage compared to 2018. His curve produced ground balls 45 percent of the time while his four-seam yielded a 37.2 ground ball rate. It’s a tradeoff for more swings and misses deploying these two pitches most often. Here’s the same chart but with swings and misses only from last season:
Bradley’s curve strikeout percentage rose from 20.4 percent in 2018 to 31.4 in 2019 helping his swinging strike percentage rebound to 9.4 percent using Fangraphs data. Even with fewer swings overall, if Bradley can use his curve effectively while keeping the ball on the ground, he can succeed. However, overlooking his 38 hard hit percentage allowed and 31.2 line drive rate last year could be a mistake. Before looking at his projections, here’s Bradley’s zone profile:
There’s time to pay full retail for a pitcher in the midst of a breakout and a time to avoid pending regression. For Archie Bradley , it leans to the latter. Even in the midst of a hot streak, his underlying indicators hint at unsustainability. Bradley’s xFIP for 2019 of 4.06 sits below his xFIP from July 30th on by over 60 points. Remember, he converted 14 straight saves, but with some luck.
Bradley’s projections agree on migration to the mean. Take note of the ratios in each system’s numbers:
- Archie Bradley 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 - 3, 33 Saves, 65 IP, 72:26 K:BB, 3.94 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
- Archie Bradley 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 3, 29 Saves, 65 IP, 73:25 K:BB, 3.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
- Archie Bradley 2020 ZiPS Projection - 5 - 3, 75.1 IP, 87:32 K:BB, 3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
It’s quite possible Archie Bradley could hang on to the closer role for the whole season in Arizona to the delight of his owners. He could also struggle with command at times and with too much traffic and line drives, ebb towards the Steamer ratios rather than the ERA’s forecast by ATC and ZiPS. None of the sites buy into his 2.10 ERA over his last 25-plus innings ending last year. As the 19th reliever off the board in early average draft position data, Bradley does not possess a high-risk price. One can target Bradley for saves, just heed his ratios and plan accordingly. He’s potentially solid, but not elite as a closer.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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