Should a contract ensure playing time? This could be a bridge the Padres need to cross as an organization this season. Eric Hosmer inked an eight-year contract worth $144 million dollars in 2018. Last year, Hosmer appeared in 160 games with 72 runs, 22 home runs, 99 RBI and a .265/.310/.425 slash line over 667 plate appearances. He finished with a walk percentage of 6.0 and a 24.4 percent strikeout rate. His isolated power rose to .160 and he racked up a 20.8 home run per fly ball percentage. Not eye-popping numbers, but solid for Hosmer.
Beneath the 99 RBI, Hosmer turned in a career high 13.4 percent swinging strike rate, a 73 percent contact rate and an 84.9 percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate. This marks back-to-back seasons with a reduced contact percentage for Hosmer. Already challenged with producing too many ground balls, it poses a problem for him hitting in the heart of the lineup going forward.
According to Statcast, Hosmer recorded 461 batted ball events with 33 barrels (7.2 percent), a 90.5 MPH average exit velocity and 2.1-degree launch angle. Yes, 2.1 degrees which represents an increase over his negative number from 2018. Hosmer’s hard-hit percentage grew to 46 percent and his sweet spot percentage grew slightly to 29.1 percent. But, a 56.8 ground ball percentage with a 17.6 percent fly ball rate and 23.2 percent line drive rate caps his home run totals. Here are Hosmer’s batted balls in play from 2019 in a spray chart:
Transitioning to his expected statistics, Hosmer owned a .259 expected batting average with a .418 expected slugging. On a positive note, Hosmer notched his best zone swing percentage on Statcast with a 71.9 percent rate but unless he improves upon his launch angle, 2020 comes with some doubts. This can be seen in Hosmer’s zone profile:
Basing projections on a hot or cold second half can be misleading, but ignoring Hosmer’s trends after the break last year would be a mistake:
- Eric Hosmer 1H - 89 games, 349 at-bats, 48 runs, 13 home runs, 62 RBI; .287/.336/.447
- Eric Hosmer 2H - 71 games, 270 at-bats, 24 runs, nine home runs, 37 RBI; .237/.277/.396
Perhaps Hosmer scuffled in the second half but his underlying numbers look worse:
- Eric Hosmer 1H - 6.6 walk percentage, 19.3 strikeout rate, .160 isolated power, .331 weighted on-base average, 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 75.1 contact rate
- Eric Hosmer 2H - 5.2 walk percentage, 31.1 strikeout rate, .159 isolated power, .280 weighted on-base average, 14.4 swinging strike percentage, 70.3 contact rate
Not only do Hosmer’s strikeout percentage and reduced contact provide some worries going forward, his low wOBA also causes concern. Worse, Hosmer produced a paltry .231/.287/.321 slash versus left-handed pitching with a .090 isolated power and an anemic 59 weighted runs created plus.
At the age of 30, it’s apparent Hosmer’s not going to adapt to the fly ball revolution. Right now, he’s battling to hold onto full-time at-bats unless he improves against southpaws. Replicating his RBI production will be difficult if he drifts in the lineup so monitor his spring closely. With a new manager much more adept with analytics, Hosmer could be on watch. Here are his projection sets for the upcoming season:
- Eric Hosmer 2020 Steamer Projections: 141 games, 614 plate appearances, 73 runs, 23 home runs, 79 RBI, three stolen bases; .263/.327/.441
- Eric Hosmer 2020 ATC Projections: 152 games, 639 plate appearances, 74 runs, 21 home runs, 84 RBI, two stolen bases; .261/.320/.420
- Eric Hosmer 2020 THE BAT Projections: 141 games, 610 plate appearances, 69 runs, 18 home runs, 73 RBI, four stolen bases; .263/.325/.400
Perhaps the concerns regarding Hosmer above will not factor into his 2020 results. Hosmer seems to be who he projects to be at this point. Pay for the ATC projection and hope to profit if he rebounds in launch angle and average. However, ignoring his second half from last year in one of the best hitting environments ever could be a mistake as well. Monitor his results closely and be prepared to move on if any carry over effect takes place for Hosmer. There’s only a floor in his fantasy value which gets risky if he loses at-bats since he’s an accumulator, not a producer.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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