Last season proved to be one of mixed results for Sean Doolittle . He set a career-high with 29 saves, won a world championship but struggled through shoulder issues with inflated ratio statistics and did not close games down the stretch. Despite all of his ups and downs, Doolittle recorded 29 saves with six wins against five losses. He logged 60 innings with 66 strikeouts against 15 walks with a 4.05 ERA, 5.08 xFIP and 1.30 WHIP.
Throughout his struggles in 2019, manager Dave Martinez stayed loyal with Doolittle until September when he shared high leverage situations with Daniel Hudson . Less than optimal for a reliever taken in the top ten in average draft position in preseason drafts. However, Doolittle finished 12th in saves. It’s losing his status as a ratio eraser which hurt his status as an elite closer. In both 2017 and 2018, Doolittle owned a sub-1.00 WHIP.
Discerning what caused Doolittle’s volatility along with how he will fare in 2020 will make him a bargain to target or a pitcher to avoid. Starting with his injury, it definitely affected his performance. First, a look at his average release velocity by month courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
Using this as a guide, Doolittle’s performance by month using tangible ratios paint a picture of two very bad months along with a great start to the season, a rebound in June and July then a return to normalcy in September to the playoffs:
Functioning as a fly ball pitcher in a home run- friendly environment did not benefit Doolittle in 2019. Factoring in his reduced strikeout percentage and swinging strike percentage also worked against him. Beneath his numbers on Fangraphs, Doolittle’s swinging strike rate fell to 12.1-percent, contact rose to 79.3-percent, and in the strike zone, his Z-Contact rate was a career worst 85.2-percent.
According to Statcast., Doolittle yielded 177 batted ball events resulting in 15 barrels (8.5-percent), an average exit velocity of 90.1 MPH and 23.8-degree launch angle. Doolittle generated fewer ground balls (26.5-percent) losing six percent compared to 2018. Again, his Z-Contact percentage rose by nine points. A positive, Doolittle’s swing percentage went up. But, his whiff percentage did not accompany it. Biggest concern, the 41.5-percent hard hit rate allowed by Doolittle compared to 24.2-percent the season prior.
Last year’s trends do not provide a warm fuzzy feeling for a former top ten reliever. Doolittle’s drop in strikeouts while giving up more walks combined to harpoon his ERA and WHIP. Noting he uses his fastball almost 90-percent of the time, here’s his arsenal courtesy of Statcast:
If his velocity can rebound, Doolittle could return to form in 2020. Here’s the same chart with only his swinging strikes displayed:
Elevated fastballs help fuel Doolittle’s strikeouts but he may need the split finger and slider more going forward. His 33.1 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage from 2018 may never occur again, but there’s room for improvement even with his spotty health.
Over the last three years, Doolittle owns an 11-8 record with 78 saves (12th-most in this time frame), a 190:31 K:BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.88 xFIP and 0.97 WHIP over 158.1 innings. With this in mind, his projections seem to reflect more on last year’s struggles than his solid performance in the last three seasons:
- Sean Doolittle 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 - 3, 19 saves, 60 innings, 66:15 K:BB, 4.07 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
- Sean Doolittle 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 2, 26 saves, 58 innings, 65:15 K:BB, 3.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Savvy fantasy players will try to exploit a reduced cost on Sean Doolittle this season. His Steamer projection forecasts the worst-case scenario if his shoulder does not respond well going forward. This means stashing Will Harris makes sense if investing in Doolittle. Hope lies in the ATC numbers, which align more closely with his last three years data. Pay very close attention to Doolittle’s velocity in the spring and reports on his health. If they’re both positive, he makes for a very intriguing target at a reduced cost. Dave Martinez remained loyal to him and will give Doolittle every chance to anchor Washington’s vastly improved bullpen. Best case scenario, Doolittle notches his first 30-save season. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Due to the wide range of outcomes for Doolittle, his draft capital pays the price. Good news for the rest of us, it could make rostering him profitable in 2020.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
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