It seems like every season fantasy owners await the breakout by Kyle Schwarber . In 2019, he set career highs in home runs, RBI and runs while reducing his strikeout percentage for a second straight year. Small sample sizes never guarantee a carry over effect, but ignoring Schwarber’s numbers from August second on would be a mistake. Over his last 52 contests, Schwarber accrued 195 plate appearances with 28 runs, 13 doubles, 14 home runs, 38 RBI, a .349 isolated power, a .352 batting average on balls in play (unsustainable), a home run per fly ball percentage of 28 percent and a .308/.395/.657 slash line. Pretty, pretty good.

On the season, Schwarber appeared in 155 contests with 82 runs, 38 home runs, 92 RBI, two stolen bases and a .250/.339/.531 slash. When weighing how his 2020 will project, Schwarber enters his power peak turning 27 in March. Last year, he recorded a career best isolated power of .282, a 24.1 home run per fly ball rate and 11.5 walk percentage. It’s trite to ignore Schwarber hits much better versus right-handed pitching but hope lies in his robust run from August forward.

According to Statcast, Schwarber registered 379 batted ball events with 55 barrels (13th best in the majors) with an average exit velocity of 92.7 MPH (ninth best) and a launch angle of 15 degrees. More than half of his batted ball events counted as hard hits with Schwarber recording a 51.2 hard hit rate in 2019. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Beneath his numbers, Schwarber cut his whiff percentage by 2.1 points, traded weak contact (down 2.6 percent) for solid contact (up 4.2 percent) with a 28.8 fly ball percentage and 24 percent line drive rate. His expected numbers suggest Schwarber incurred some bad luck on his batted ball data with a .267 expected batting average, .553 expected slugging and .375 expected weighted on-base average (18 points above his actual). These can be seen in his zone profile:

Even if Schwarber’s numbers migrate towards his expected numbers from last year, he’s much more enticing with an average closer to .270 and a slugging percentage over .550 in the midst of his power peak. With his surge in the last 52 games, Schwarber’s second half which covers 70 games yields 20 home runs in 225 at-bats (one every 11.25) and 49 RBI with a .280/.366/.631 slash. He owned a robust .351 isolated power with a 10.5 walk percentage, 21.8 strikeout rate and 27 home run per fly ball percent. Here’s his hard hit percentage (rising), home run per fly ball percent (rising) and swinging strike rates (stabilizing) the last three years. Note the games last year with an eye on the future:

Due to his final slash lines, and the depth of power in drafts, Schwarber will not be overpriced in regards to draft capital. Unlike some of his peers, Schwarber owns upside in maintaining the gains in power with a chance to improve his average and on-base percentage. Here’s his projections from two different sites:

  • Kyle Schwarber 2020 Steamer Projection - 138 games, 585 plate appearances, 86 runs, 37 home runs, 90 RBI, five stolen bases; .253/.354/.528
  • Kyle Schwarber 2020 ATC Projection - 142 games, 566 plate appearances, 79 runs, 35 home runs, 86 RBI, two stolen bases; .252/.350/.528

Armed with improved discipline metrics, underlying expected data pointing to possible positive migration to the mean and a chance to launch 40 home runs, Kyle Schwarber seems like a bargain for 2020. Pay for his projections but profit if he reaches them with an average in the .260’s and his first 40 home run season. They’re within the realm of outcomes for 2020 which makes him an intriguing target at his present price point.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen