It seems like every season fantasy owners await the breakout by Kyle Schwarber . In 2019, he set career highs in home runs, RBI and runs while reducing his strikeout percentage for a second straight year. Small sample sizes never guarantee a carry over effect, but ignoring Schwarber’s numbers from August second on would be a mistake. Over his last 52 contests, Schwarber accrued 195 plate appearances with 28 runs, 13 doubles, 14 home runs, 38 RBI, a .349 isolated power, a .352 batting average on balls in play (unsustainable), a home run per fly ball percentage of 28 percent and a .308/.395/.657 slash line. Pretty, pretty good.
On the season, Schwarber appeared in 155 contests with 82 runs, 38 home runs, 92 RBI, two stolen bases and a .250/.339/.531 slash. When weighing how his 2020 will project, Schwarber enters his power peak turning 27 in March. Last year, he recorded a career best isolated power of .282, a 24.1 home run per fly ball rate and 11.5 walk percentage. It’s trite to ignore Schwarber hits much better versus right-handed pitching but hope lies in his robust run from August forward.
According to Statcast, Schwarber registered 379 batted ball events with 55 barrels (13th best in the majors) with an average exit velocity of 92.7 MPH (ninth best) and a launch angle of 15 degrees. More than half of his batted ball events counted as hard hits with Schwarber recording a 51.2 hard hit rate in 2019. Here’s his spray chart from last year:
Beneath his numbers, Schwarber cut his whiff percentage by 2.1 points, traded weak contact (down 2.6 percent) for solid contact (up 4.2 percent) with a 28.8 fly ball percentage and 24 percent line drive rate. His expected numbers suggest Schwarber incurred some bad luck on his batted ball data with a .267 expected batting average, .553 expected slugging and .375 expected weighted on-base average (18 points above his actual). These can be seen in his zone profile:
Even if Schwarber’s numbers migrate towards his expected numbers from last year, he’s much more enticing with an average closer to .270 and a slugging percentage over .550 in the midst of his power peak. With his surge in the last 52 games, Schwarber’s second half which covers 70 games yields 20 home runs in 225 at-bats (one every 11.25) and 49 RBI with a .280/.366/.631 slash. He owned a robust .351 isolated power with a 10.5 walk percentage, 21.8 strikeout rate and 27 home run per fly ball percent. Here’s his hard hit percentage (rising), home run per fly ball percent (rising) and swinging strike rates (stabilizing) the last three years. Note the games last year with an eye on the future:
Due to his final slash lines, and the depth of power in drafts, Schwarber will not be overpriced in regards to draft capital. Unlike some of his peers, Schwarber owns upside in maintaining the gains in power with a chance to improve his average and on-base percentage. Here’s his projections from two different sites:
- Kyle Schwarber 2020 Steamer Projection - 138 games, 585 plate appearances, 86 runs, 37 home runs, 90 RBI, five stolen bases; .253/.354/.528
- Kyle Schwarber 2020 ATC Projection - 142 games, 566 plate appearances, 79 runs, 35 home runs, 86 RBI, two stolen bases; .252/.350/.528
Armed with improved discipline metrics, underlying expected data pointing to possible positive migration to the mean and a chance to launch 40 home runs, Kyle Schwarber seems like a bargain for 2020. Pay for his projections but profit if he reaches them with an average in the .260’s and his first 40 home run season. They’re within the realm of outcomes for 2020 which makes him an intriguing target at his present price point.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.