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Just when the power returned for José Ramírez in the second half, a hamate injury cut his season short and contributed to Cleveland missing the play-offs. After rising to the first round in most drafts, Ramirez struggled opening the season and only appeared in 129 games thanks to his hand injury. He scored 68 runs with 23 home runs, 83 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .255/.327/.479 slash line, not quite a return on investment. In fact, due to his varied differences within his first and second halves the last three years, if Ramirez did not offer home runs and stolen bases with his plate discipline, his draft stock would suffer.
Ramirez will go off the board in the second round of most drafts in 2020 with the potential for upside entering his Age-27 season, otherwise known as a player’s power peak. Which Ramirez shows up ultimately determines if he’s a bargain or busts once again. Perusing his 2019 numbers, Ramirez finished as one of nine players with at least 20 home runs and stolen bases despite missing extended time due to his hand injury.
Although his batting average cratered, Ramirez kept his plate discipline metrics with a 5.6 swinging strike percentage, 86.7 contact rate and 92.3 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage. On Statcast, Ramirez fared better with his expected numbers due to his patience at the plate and ability to make contact. His Zone Contact on this site registered a career high at 91.1 percent. Simple migration to the mean should translate into a rebound for 2020 for Ramirez, especially given his swing and take charts. Compare his heart of the zone runs from 2018 to last season:
José Ramírez Swing and Take Chart 2018
José Ramírez Swing and Take Chart 2019
Going from plus-19 runs in the heart of the zone in 2018 to last year’s negative eight impacted his average and production. This appears to be a blip on the horizon, not a potential carry over effect. Shifting to his batted ball data, Ramirez does not rate highly in terms of barrel percentage, but he recorded 414 batted ball events in 2019 with 26 barrels (6.3 percent), an 89.1 MPH average exit velocity and launch angle of 19.8 degrees. He hit 19 of his 23 home runs versus fastballs. Here’s his spray chart from last season of all batted balls in play:
Ramirez recorded a 33.8 ground ball percentage, 29.7 fly ball rate and 25.6 line drive percent according to Statcast. He pulled the ball almost half of the time with a 35.7 hard hit percentage. This does not bode well since most of the majors surged in hard hit data but Ramirez’s slow start stifled his numbers. More on this soon.
On Fangraphs, Ramirez owned a .224 isolated power with a .256 batting average on balls in play fueling his average drop last year. Yet, he still walked in 9.6 percent of his plate appearances with a 13.7 strikeout rate. Before getting into his last three years of data, Ramirez owned better expected numbers on Statcast with a .274 expected batting average, .465 expected slugging and .342 expected weighted on-base average. Here’s his zone profile from 2019:
Taking into account his ability to generate across all categories in fantasy, Ramirez remains an enticing commodity target early in drafts. However, his volatility from half to half in any season can be frustrating. This chart does its best to illustrate this point, breaking down each of his halves over the last three years:
Prior to his injury in August of last year, Ramirez owned a robust .412 isolated power with a 26.7 home run per fly ball percentage launching 16 home runs his first 165 at-bats (one every 10.3). Regression to the mean or a reset after the break? Discerning this along with trying to predict his 2020 outcomes make Ramirez a potential gamble, but one who could win a league in the second round.
Extrapolating a small sample size to a full season proves to be folly in fantasy. Combining Ramirez turning 27 last September entering the precipice of his power peak cannot be ignored either. Noting he only logged 126 games in 2019 skewing his games played the last three season average, his 96 runs, 30 home runs, 91 RBI and 25 steals cannot be overlooked. Ramirez recorded a .283/.365/.541 slash over the last three years with a .278 BABIP, .377 wOBA and 14.4 home run per fly ball percentage. Factor in his elite discipline metrics with the fifth lowest swinging strike percentage (5.2), sixth best contact percent (87.3) and ninth best Z-Contact rate of 92.4 percent to his profile makes Ramirez more alluring.
Now the hard part, his projection. Knowing Steamer prefers a player’s last three years as a baseline, it’s no surprise to see his numbers for 2020:
- José Ramírez 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 95 runs, 31 home runs, 101 RBI, 23 stolen bases; .277/.362/.523 slash
Rostering a player capable of 30 or more home runs with 20 or more stolen bases represents a rare breed in baseball. Volatility in his splits profile presents a unique buying opportunity for a potential top-5 player at a depressed price. Without being privy to how bouncy the baseball will be, it really does not impact Ramirez like other hitters reliant on hard hit rates for power. Ramirez uses his plate discipline, hunts fastballs and adjusts in season to keep him relevant to fantasy.
A full season of Francisco Lindor combined with a migration to the mean by José Ramírez will be a key to Cleveland contending in 2020 with both the Twins and White Sox adding to their lineups. There’s a chance Ramirez could reach his 95th percentile projection hitting 35 or more home runs (he hit 39 in 2018) and steal 30 or more bases (34 also in 2018) with a batting average above his three-year average. Remember, Ramirez hit over .300 in both 2016 and 2017 before his power surge. Risk averse or impatient owners should avoid Ramirez. However, if he’s at the wheel or later in 15-team drafts, taking the plunge could net dividends along with adding speed to a roster without sacrificing any of the other counting statistics. This remains a huge part of his appeal.
Anytime a fantasy owner can get a player primed for a rebound entering his peak years who stuffs statistics without being a batting average drain makes for a worthy option. José Ramírez represents this in 2020. Calling for 35 home runs, 29 stolen bases and a .290 average.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
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