Past practice teaches fantasy owners to proceed with caution overpaying due to positional scarcity. However, recent data suggests rostering one of the top catchers, especially in terms of counting statistics can provide a competitive advantage. No longer does it take a second-round selection of Buster Posey to try and impact a roster, one can wait until around the third or fourth round for J.T. Realmuto . Last year, Realmuto became the third catcher in history to score at least 90 runs with 35 or more doubles and 25 home runs. Only Johnny Bench (1970 and 1974) along with Jorge Polanco (2000) accomplished this feat prior to Realmuto in 2019.
Moving to Philadelphia pushed Realmuto’s stock up due to ballpark factors and hitting in a more productive lineup. Still, Realmuto finished with career highs in the following categories:
- Games (145)
- At-bats (538)
- Runs (92)
- Home Runs (25)
- RBI (83)
- Doubles (36)
- Walks (41)
- Extra-base hits (64)
- Total Bases (265)
Noting his increased playing time, it’s obvious as to how Realmuto notched a bevy of career bests last season.
When looking at how his peers at catcher fared, it’s also apparent how his value rises for fantasy. According to Fangraphs, the cumulative .236/.308/.405 slash line of catchers in 2019 and paltry 85 WRC+ (weight runs created plus) makes Realmuto stand out. In 2019, Realmuto cranked out a .275/.328/.493 slash line with a 108 WRC+ metric.
Realmuto increased his home run total for the fourth straight season, remained stable in his plate discipline although he proved to be a bit more aggressive and stands on the precipice of free agency. In terms of his discipline, Realmuto recorded a 6.8-percent walk rate and 20.7-percent strikeout rate. His swinging strike percentage of 11-percent grew slightly but Realmuto maintained his contact percentage above 78 with an 86.2-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone).
As for his batted ball data, Realmuto recorded 37 barrels of his 423 batted ball events (8.7-percent) averaging a 90.3 MPH exit velocity. For the second straight season, Realmuto kept his launch angle over 14 degrees potentially producing his two-MPH gain in exit velocity. Of course, the juiced baseball also contributed. On Statcast, Realmuto registered a 28.4-percent line drive rate, 23.9-percent fly ball rate and 39.7-percent ground ball rate.
His expected numbers reinforce his value. Realmuto attained a .278 expected batting average with a .474 expected slugging and 40.9-percent hard hit rate. His expected weighted on-base average on contact of .405 sits 30 points over his peers. Here’s his zone profile from 2019:
Noting Realmuto’s strong season in terms of his career bests, his spray chart suggests he can carry over the gains with a second season in Philadelphia:
Using all fields and not relying on pulling the ball for power enhances Realmuto’s profile. Using small sample sizes can be dangerous, but ignoring his second half would be a mistake. Over his last 60 games, Realmuto accrued 255 plate appearances scoring 37 runs with 15 home runs, 41 RBI and a robust .278/.327/.565 slash line. His isolated power reached .287 with a 6.7-percent walk rate and 18-percent strikeout rate. Plus, on Fangraphs, his fly ball percentage spiked to 42.3-percent along with his home run per fly ball percentage (18.8). Check out his 15-game rolling chart to visualize his power peak in the second half of last season:
Fresh off of a cleanup of his meniscus, Realmuto could be primed for at least a repeat of last year, trying to procure an optimal contract as he heads to free agency. Of course, the bounciness of baseballs in 2020 will be a murky thing to predict. Using his Steamer projection as a baseline, Realmuto still stands out among his peers at catcher:
- J.T. Realmuto 2020 Steamer Projection - 127 games, 544 plate appearances, 70 runs, 23 home runs, 75 RBI, six stolen bases; .269/.329/.477
Over the last three years, Realmuto owns a .276/.333/.475 slash with 234 runs, 63 home runs, 222 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 412 games. Based on him being projected to hit second in the lineup along with his strong track record, it seems a little light. Realmuto could hit 22-to-25 home runs with 85 or more runs and up a repeat of nine stolen bases with a successful knee procedure behind him. It took an average of nine steals per 14 hitters to finish in the 80th-percentile of stolen bases in NFBC leagues last year. Targeting Realmuto’s speed at a scarce spot on a fantasy roster only enhances his appeal.
Taking the over on runs and all three areas of his slash line from Realmuto’s Steamer projection justifies him as a player to target in the third round of 15-team drafts and the fourth of 12-team leagues. Not sacrificing batting average with pocket stolen bases makes J.T. Realmuto the gold standard at his position in 2020. His underlying data only enhances his portfolio. Invest with confidence.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
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