While stolen bases and pitching continue to drive average draft positions, veterans remain undervalued. Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year contract with the Twins insuring he will play third base on grass and be able to accrue at-bats at designated hitter when his body needs a day off from playing defense. He only appeared in 113 games in 2017 and 52 contests in 2018 but bounced back for 155 logged with Atlanta last season. In the four years prior to 2017, Donaldson averaged 157 games played.

Due to recency bias, Donaldson dropped in drafts yet returned huge dividends to his owners last year. Donaldson scored 96 runs with 37 home runs, 94 RBI, four stolen bases and a .259/.379/.521 slash line in 659 plate appearances. Representing an aging veteran at a deep position, Donaldson owns an average draft position above 100 once again entering the 2020 draft season. Can lightning strike twice?

Starting with his batted ball data, Donaldson does not rely on pulling the ball for power and moving to Minnesota should not affect his numbers in the home run category. Taking all of his line drives and fly balls from 2019 with Target Field as the backdrop looks promising:

According to Statcast, Donaldson recorded 396 batted ball events with 62 barrels (15.7-percent), a 92.9 MPH average exit velocity (sixth in baseball) and a 13.3-degree launch angle. Armed with the seventh-most barrels in baseball in 2019, Donaldson also surged to a 50-percent hard hit rate. Although he does not produce a high number of fly balls, he maximizes production with them with a 25.7-percent home run per fly ball rate. Of more encouragement, once Donaldson shook off the rust from a limited 2018 season, he went on a tear from June 10th until the end of the regular season. Within this 94-game sample, Donaldson slashed a robust .272/.395/.587 with 61 runs, 29 home runs, 69 RBI and three stolen bases in 405 plate appearances. His home run per fly ball rate jumped to 30.9-percent in this time frame. Only Eugenio Suárez (35), Pete Alonso (32) and new teammate Nelson Cruz (30) hit more home runs from June 10th until the end of the regular season.

Not only did Donaldson rack up his second-highest home run total of his career, he also became the fifth player in Atlanta history with at least 35 home runs and 100 walks in a season. Unlike many power hitters, Donaldson owns terrific on-base abilities along with controlling the strike zone. Yes, he did strikeout in 23.5-percent of his plate appearances in 2019 but also walked in 15.2-percent of them. It’s more about contact with Donaldson. His 12.5-percent swinging strike rate accompanies a 71.6-percent contact rate, 25.7 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent and 76.6-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate.

His ability to generate barrels (seventh-most in the majors in 2019) and hard hit percentage fuel his expected statistics. Donaldson’s expected numbers of .269 expected batting average, .535 expected slugging, .387 expected weighted on-base average and .456 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Here’s a look at his zone profile from last year:

Noting the above, determining Donaldson’s average and power numbers via projections seems pretty straight forward. It’s tough to buy his .279 average from June 10th on, but he could hit in the .265-to-.270 range in 2020 with 35 home runs, even with an adjusted baseball. Players who rely solely on pulling the ball for power own a more volatile profile, but Donaldson’s comfortable producing hard hit baseballs to all fields, his heat map displays his ability to go with a pitch:

With this in mind, it’s time to see how Donaldson’s projection appears for 2020:

  • Josh Donaldson 2020 Steamer Projection - 147 games, 644 plate appearances, 100 runs, 36 home runs, 103 RBI, four stolen bases; .267/.379/.521

Only nine players presently own a projection of at least 100 runs and RBI according to Steamer with Donaldson being one. He’s also one of eight hitters forecasted to hit at least 35 home runs. Injury gets baked into his overall cost in drafts, but Donaldson represents a veteran with a stable skill set in a loaded lineup. A repeat of last year still makes Josh Donaldson a worthy dart throw at his present price point. Donaldson will not move the needle in fantasy since he’s an aging commodity. However, he makes for an intriguing upside play as a third baseman or corner infielder with the potential for triple digits in runs and RBI with an outside chance of finishing in the top-five in home runs in the American League.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

MLB.com - Game Notes