Without a definitive role as the 2019 season started, Taylor Rogers flew beneath the radar in fantasy. Yes, he flashed a dominant second half in 2018 with a sparkling 0.94 ERA and 35:8 K:BB his last 28.2 innings. Rogers ended last season tied for fourth in saves (30) in the American League with 90 strikeouts against 11 walks over 69 innings with a 2.61 ERA, 2.84 xFIP and a WHIP of one.

When Rogers started his breakout following the All-Star break in 2018, he started using a slider more than his curve. Already armed with a sinker, Rogers moved his ground ball percentage to 50.6 in 2019, up over six percent versus his prior season. Perhaps more important than Rogers ground ball rate, his strikeout to walk ratio. Rogers ranked second among all qualified relievers with an 8.18 strikeout to walk rate. This translates to a 32.4 strikeout percentage versus a four percent walk percent. Despite giving up more home runs, Rogers traded line drives for ground balls somehow reducing hard contact yielded in one of the best hitting seasons on record.

Since tweaking his arsenal, Rogers owns a 2.12 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and a robust 125:19 K:BB. Here’s his pitch plot from 2019 courtesy of Statcast:

According to Statcast, Rogers allowed 176 batted ball events in 2019 giving up 13 barrels (7.6 percent) with an average exit velocity of 86.6 MPH and an average launch angle of 6.2 degrees. Somehow, Rogers reduced his average launch angle against by 2.4 degrees in 2019. He also did well in his expected numbers with a .207 expected batting average against (xBA), a .348 expected slugging (xSLG) and .258 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Using this site’s hard hit rate, Rogers only allowed them in 29.7 percent of his batted ball data. As a primer to his swing and miss stuff, here’s Rogers chart of his arsenal with them highlighted:

In 2019, Rogers carried over using his slider more than the curve with great results in his ratios along with his predictive statistics:

  • Sinker - 48.6 percent usage, .250 xBA, .388 xSLG, .277 xwOBA, 27.6 strikeout percentage, 15.2 whiff percent
  • Slider - 34.6 percent usage, .171 xBA, .284 xSLG, .215 xwOBA, 40.6 strikeout percentage, 35.7 whiff percent
  • Curve - 16.7 percent usage, .196 xBA, .367 xSLG, .302 xwOBA, 31.4 strikeout percentage, 33.8 whiff percent

Shifting to Brooks Baseball, Rogers recorded a 60 percent ground ball per ball in play with his sinker, a 44.9 ground ball percent with his slider and a 31.6 percent rate with the curve. Depressing hard hits and elevation of baseballs keep Rogers successful in high leverage. Not only did he notch 30 saves, Rogers also registered 10 holds last season. Here’s his zone profile for further illustration:

Noting his last 97.2 innings of work dating back to the start of the second half in 2018, Rogers still gets a bit overlooked in fantasy circles. Minnesota built a very strong bridge to him in high leverage and does play match-ups at times with Rogers in the late innings. His Steamer projection still does not fully buy into the increased strikeout potential or reduced WHIP displayed in his recent adjustments:

  • Taylor Rogers 2020 Steamer Projection - 4 Wins, 31 Saves, 65 IP, 77:19 K:BB, 3.44 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP

Chasing saves comes with inherent risk in fantasy. However, Taylor Rogers emergence as a reliable reliever should not be overlooked. Even if with migration to the mean in his 2019 numbers, Rogers owned a 2.84 xFIP and 2.85 FIP with a 2.63 SIERA. Taking the over on strikeouts and the under on the ratios in the Steamer projection but the save number could be spot on. Rogers will share some of the high leverage moments with the Twins protecting against over using him. But Rogers remains a very underappreciated commodity for fantasy production to the delight of those investing in him.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

BrooksBaseball.net