After getting off to an historic first-half becoming the 38th player with at least 30 home runs before the All-Star break, Cody Bellinger did cool down a bit in the second half, but still turned in a career year. Bellinger’s 47 home runs represent the third-highest total in Dodgers history and ranked fourth in the majors. Bellinger also set career highs in the following categories:
- Runs - 121
- Hits - 170
- Doubles - 34
- Home runs - 47
- RBI - 115
- Walks - 95
- Stolen Bases - 15
- Each of his slash lines - .305/.406/.629
Bellinger led the National League in total bases (351), ranked second in runs and on-base plus slugging percentage (1.035) and slugging percentage. He will turn 25 in July.
Delving into his batted ball data, Bellinger also racked up impressive gains on Fangraphs raising his line drive percentage by 6.3 points to 26.2-percent last season, cut his ground ball percentage by almost nine to 31.5-percent and keeping his fly ball percentage consistent at 42.4-percent. Bellinger surged to a 24.1-percent home run to fly ball ratio with a 49.2-percent hard hit rate. These combined for Bellinger to register a whopping .324 isolated power as well. Mercy!
According to Statcast, Bellinger accumulated 455 batted ball events with 59 barrels, which was eighth in the majors, resulting in a 13-barrel percentage, a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity and a 17.6-degree launch angle. His expected numbers hint at potential upside for 2020 with Bellinger recording a .323 expected batting average (xBA), .638 expected slugging (xSLG) and .429 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Check out his zone profile with the bevy of red in the expected charts:
He ranked second in xBA and xwOBA while finishing third in xSLG compared to his peers in 2019. His results against pitch groups also proves encouraging:
- Versus Fastballs - .335 xBA, .668 xSLG
- Versus Breaking Pitches - .295 xBA, .625 xSLG
- Versus Offspeed Pitches - .312 xBA, .524 xSLG
On Statcast, Bellinger tallied a 45.5-percent hard hit rate. His average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls of 95 MPH sets him up for success going forward. Here’s his spray chart from last year:
Perhaps more important than the batted ball data, the growth in Bellinger’s plate discipline could determine his 2020 projections. Bellinger cut his swinging strike percentage by almost three points to 9.5-percent, increased his contact percentage to 78.1-percent (up by 5.9 points) and raised his zone contact rate to 83-percent based on Fangraphs data. Transitioning to Statcast, Bellinger bolstered his zone contact to 80.1-percent versus 74-percent in 2018, reduced his whiff percent to 23.5-percent, a five percent improvement. These resonated in his 14.4-percent walk rate and 16.4-percent strikeout rate. Can it be maintained?
Hitters continue to evolve in regards to plate discipline until their Age-27 season, so the evolution in his discipline could stick. Perusing his projections, they seem to agree, especially in terms of regression. Here’s his projections from two systems:
- Cody Bellinger 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 544 at-bats, 99 runs, 42 home runs, 115 RBI, 12 stolen bases; .287/.385/.583, 13.5-percent walk rate, 18.2-percent strikeout rate, and .297 isolated power
- Cody Bellinger 2020 ZiPS Projection - 547 at-bats, 108 runs, 40 home runs, 120 RBI, 16 stolen bases; .293/.392/.585, 13.7-percent walk rate, 19.7-percent strikeout rate, and .293 isolated power
One thing to consider before buying in with a top-five pick, Cody Bellinger did suffer a dislocated shoulder in early May. He played through it but his on-base plus slugging prior to the injury (1.367) dropped to .950 the rest of the season. It could be nothing, but it could be something. Overall, Bellinger sits on the precipice of a potential repeat. Monitor any news in the spring regarding his shoulder and note it could affect his home run total but if the gains in discipline hold, there may not be too much regression in 2020 compared to his career-best season turned in last year.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Shoulder injury: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-cody-bellinger-dislocated-shoulder-20190504-story.html
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