Trevor Story became the first player in Rockies history to record back-to-back seasons with at least 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases. At a time when stolen base totals continue to decline, Story will be a popular target at the back end of the first round in 15-team drafts and on the turn in 12-team formats. Story appeared in 145 games with 111 runs, 35 home runs, 85 RBI, 23 stolen bases and a .294/.363/.554 slash line. He’s built for success at Coors Field due to his propensity to generate hard hit baseballs in the air. Coors ranks far and away as the most BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for fly balls in the majors.
According to Fangraphs, Story produced fly balls in over 42 percent of his batted ball data with a hard-hit percentage of 44.1 percent. His line drive rate rose to 24.3 percent in 2019 fueling his batting average over .290 for the second straight season. Curiously, Story reduced his pull percentage and contact rate, but did not suffer any consequences while stuffing his statistics in 2019.
On Statcast, Story recorded 417 batted ball events with 36 barrels (8.6 percent) and a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity. His launch angle last season averaged 17.3 degrees but as his career numbers indicate, his expected numbers lag behind his actual production. Of course Coors plays a role in this, but before predicting doom for Story’s fantasy stock going forward, ignoring he’s entering his power peak in a home park built for his swing would be frivolous. In 2019, Story’s expected batting average of .264 with an expected slugging of .463 do not mesh with his .435 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Take a look at Story’s zone profile from last season:
Comparing his career Statcast numbers with his last three years could set the stage for Story projections in 2020. First, on Statcast Story owns an 11.2 barrel percentage, 90.3 MPH average exit velocity, 17.3 degree launch angle, a .253 expected batting average, .475 expected slugging and 44 percent hard hit rate. Over the last three years, including his cratered batting average of .239 in 2017, Story’s played in 447 games with 1,867 plate appearances, 267 runs, 96 home runs, 275 RBI, 57 stolen bases and a .276/.341/.530 slash line. Here’s his spray chart during this time frame:
Many players exhibit a high pull percentage when selling out for power, but Story does not follow this path. In fact, his heat map form the last three seasons shows his willingness to hit the ball to all fields:
In 2019, Trevor Story set career highs in runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Armed with consecutive seasons of 30-plus home runs and 20-plus stolen bases, he’s going to be a popular target for fantasy. Story’s also the first shortstop with 20 or more home runs in each of his first four seasons. As for his projection sets, they default to his slash line from the last three years but see more of the same in terms of counting statistics:
- Trevor Story Steamer Projection - 150 games, 561 at-bats, 90 runs, 35 home runs, 103 RBI, 19 stolen bases; .279/.346/.541
- Trevor Story ZiPS Projection - 151 games, 580 at-bats, 97 runs, 36 home runs, 99 RBI, 20 stolen bases; .274/.341/.540
Due to the volatility of others in the top-20 of drafts, Story provides a solid baseline of power, runs and an average above .290 for two straight seasons. With health, 2020 will be more of the same. Where Story hits in the lineup could affect his counting numbers, he logged just under 400 at-bats hitting second in 2019 but could slot in third or fourth in 2020. Due to his consistent production, do not overthink this. He’s a stud and should be treated as such.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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