It feels like Miguel Sanó sits on the precipice of a 50 home run season. Despite only appearing in 105 games in 2019, he launched 34 home runs in 380 at-bats with 79 RBI and a respectable .247/.346/.576 slash line. Yes, Sano comes with a hefty strikeout rate, 36.6 percent last season to be exact, but he kept his on-base percentage near 35 percent with a whopping .329 isolated power. For a reference point, check out Miguel Sanó versus Pete Alonso from May 16th forward, the date of Sano’s debut in 2019:
- Pete Alonso 5/16 to end of season: 41 home runs in 445 at-bats (HR every 10.85 at-bats), 133:55 K:BB, .330 ISO; .258/.362/.589
- Miguel Sanó 5/16 to end of season: 34 home runs in 380 at-bats (HR every 11.18 at-bats), 159:55 K:BB, .329 ISO; .247/.346/.576
Sano’s ranks in the American League from this date forward are as follows:
- Tied for fourth in home runs
- Fourth in isolated power
- 11th in RBI
- 15th in on-base plus slugging percentage (.923)
During the second half, Sano surged to a .254/.362/.578 slash with 21 home runs in only 232 at-bats (one every 11.05) with 36 walks versus 95 strikeouts. Sano’s numbers jump off the page using Statcast data. He registered 222 batted ball events in 2019 with 47 barrels resulting in the second-best barrel percentage in the majors of 21.2 percent. Sano averaged 94.4 MPH on exit velocity, second in the majors and his 99.6 MPH exit velocity on line drives and fly balls represents over 60 percent of his batted ball profile last season. Although his expected batting average of .234 may not entice fantasy owners, his .544 expected slugging and robust .537 expected weighted batting average on contact could cushion a crater in the category. Sano also accounted for the highest hard-hit percentage (57.2-percent) on Statcast with 127 batted ball events of 95 MPH or higher.
Over the last three years, Sano owns a .241/.331/.503 slash with 76 home runs and 202 RBI over 1,239 plate appearances spanning 294 games. Seeing Sano’s 36.6 home run per fly ball percentage for 2019 seemed like a reach to repeat but his home run per fly rate for the last three seasons sits at 28.9-percent. Yes, he relies too heavily on pulling fly balls and hard-hit percentage, but the power is for real.
First, here’s Sano’s spray chart on hits from last season:
And his slice chart reflecting hits over 200 feet in distance exemplifies his propensity to pull the ball:
Last, Sano’s zone profile from 2019 shows some holes in his approach, but when he runs into a fastball, great things happen:
Players who do not possess the raw power like Miguel Sanó struggle to carry over gains when pulling the ball and generating hard hit data like Matt Carpenter . However, Sano’s not selling out to hit for power, it comes naturally like Joey Gallo . So, investing in Sano for 2020 proves risky based on his shaky injury past rather than hoping for 40 or more home runs. This resonates in his Steamer projection. Sano’s slated for 141 games, 530 at-bats, 89 runs, 39 home runs, 102 RBI and a .246/.337/.519 slash line. His home run total ranks tied for 10th in the projections for the league and his RBI tied for 12th. Remember his alignment with Alonso above but Sano comes at a 100-pick discount so far this preseason. Which represents more risk? Personally, I lean towards the discount in this scenario.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/basebal
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